On the Complexity and Accuracy of Geographic Profiling Strategies

Geographic profilers have access to a repertoire of strategies for predicting a serial offenders home location. These strategies range in complexity—some involve more calculations to implement than others—and the assumption often made is that more complex strategies will outperform simpler strategies. In the present study, we tested the relationship between the complexity and accuracy of 11 strategies. Data were crime site and home locations of 16 UK residential burglars who had committed 10 or more crimes each. The results indicated that strategy complexity was not positively related to accuracy. This was also found to be the case across tasks that ranged in complexity (where complexity was determined by the number of crimes used to make a prediction). Implications for police policies and procedures, as well as our understanding of human decision-making, are discussed.To whom correspondence should be addressed. Phone: +1-709-737-3101; E-mail: bsnook@play.psych.mun.ca     

Fatal impalement with transfixion of the neck in a road traffic accident

The authors describe a singular case of fatal impalement due to penetration of a metal tube at the level of the neck in a victim of a road traffic accident. The man was traveling in the passenger seat ("death seat") of a car that hit the parapet of a bridge head on; death was attributed to hemorrhagic shock, which was brought on virtually instantly at the moment of impact.     

Anomalies and alterations of the hyoid-larynx complex in forensic radiographic studies

The authors illustrate the anatomic interest of the hyoid-larynx complex in the differential diagnosis of traumatic lesions, purely anatomic anomalies, and lesions resulting from natural causes. Forty larynges from corpses undergoing autopsy at the Institute of Legal Medicine of the University of Trieste were studied during the period May 1996 to May 2001. The larynges were excised and examined through radiographic magnification with dedicated mammographic equipment. Triticeous cartilages were evidenced in 12 (30%), they were bilateral in 7 (17.5%) and monolateral in 5 (12.5%). These cartilages were more frequent in men (8 out of 26; 31%) than in women, 4 out of 14 (28.5%).Total fusion of the body of the hyoid bone with the greater horns was revealed in 10 (25%), partial fusion in 4 (10%), and evident articular rima between the body and the greater horns of the hyoid bone in 14 (35%).The lesser horns of the hyoid bone were symmetrical in 29 (72.5%), asymmetric in 11 (27.5), absent in 1 (2.5%). While confirming the validity of the radiographic method used, we conclude that great care should be taken when diagnosing traumatic lesions of the hyoid-larynx complex. This diagnosis is often difficult to establish owing to the considerable frequency of anatomic anomalies of the complex.     

Forecasting Recidivism in Mentally Ill Offenders Released from Prison

Little research has focused on assessing the risk of mentally ill offenders (MIOs) released from state prisons. Here we report findings for 333 mentally ill offenders released from Washington State prisons. Logistic regression identified sets of variables that forecasted felony and violent reconviction as accurately as state-of-the-art risk assessment instruments. Sums of simple recoded versions of these variables predicted reoffense as well as complex logistic regression equations. Five of these 9 variables were found to be relative protective factors. Findings are discussed in terms of the value of stock correctional variables in forecasting risk, the need to base actuarial risk assessments on local data, the importance of protective factors in assessing MIO risk, and the need for dynamic, situational, and clinical variables that can further sharpen predictive accuracy of emergent risk in the community.     

Autonomy and audit--striking the balance

The Data Protection Act 1998 purports to implement European legislation which aims to protect the privacy of individuals. There were such concerns about the implications of the Act for certain research and audit that it became necessary to enact further legislation to enable such essential activities to continue. Although this empowers the Secretary of State for Health to approve proposals for these purposes, there should still be a requirement that the use of identifiable personal information without consent must be justified on compelling public interest grounds. It is this that can confound those seeking to rely on such justification. There can either be too cavalier an approach to the issue, and/or there is little sense of what considerations should come into play. This paper attempts to highlight some of the difficulties that are theoretically raised by some audit activities and set out the legal framework within which they must operate. However, the key focus is on how ethical considerations might inform the public interest argument.     

Erroneous gender identification by the amelogenin sex test

Human gender identification, based on the amelogenin gene, has important applications in forensic casework, prenatal diagnosis, DNA databasing, and blood sample storage. However, we report on the first known case, in the Israeli population, of an amelogenin sex test failure on a phenotypically normal male. He was typed as a female by both the AmpFlSTR SGM plus and GenePrint kits. Subsequent, karyotyping of the soldier's blood sample showed no abnormalities. These results suggest that the determination of sex, based on the amelogenin test, should be interpreted cautiously.     

Developmental validation of a single-tube amplification of the 13 CODIS STR loci, D2S1338, D19S433, and amelogenin: the AmpFlSTR Identifiler PCR Amplification Kit

Analysis of length polymorphism at short tandem repeat (STR) loci utilizing the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) process has proven to be an ideal assay for human identification purposes. The short length of STR loci coupled with the amplification of target sequence through PCR allows for a robust, sensitive, and specific assay for highly polymorphic markers. A multiplex containing fifteen STR loci plus the gender-determining locus Amelogenin was developed to provide a single amplification/detection of all CODIS (Combined DNA Index System) STR loci (CSF1PO, D3S1358, D5S818, D7S820, D8S1179, D13S317, D16S539, D18S51, D21S11, FGA, TH01, TPOX, and vWA) as well as two internationally-accepted STRs (D2S1338 and D19S433). By incorporating five-dye fragment analysis technology and non-nucleotide linkers, previously optimized AmpFlSTR kit primer sequences have been maintained. This kit has been developed in accordance with the standards of the forensic community as defined by the DNA Advisory Board. Validation studies were performed to include developmental validation, and the results support the use of the AmpFlSTR Identifiler PCR Amplification Kit for human identity and parentage testing.