Economic Interdependence and the Balance of Power

To account for variance in great powers responses to threats and the implications for the peacefulness of the international system since the late nineteenth century, this article elucidates a theory which refines and synthesizes economic liberal perspectives and realist balance of power theory. I argue that different patterns and levels of economic interdependence in the great power system generate societal-based economic constraints on, or incentives for, state leaders of status quo powers hoping to mobilize economic resources and political support to oppose perceived threats. This mobilization process influences strongly the preferences of status quo powers, other states beliefs about those preferences, and the interpretation of signals in balance of power politics. In this way, economic ties influence the strategies great powers pursue. Firm balancing policies conducive to peace in the international system are most likely, I then hypothesize, when there are extensive economic ties among status quo powers and few or no such links between them and perceived threatening powers. When economic interdependence is not significant between status quo powers or if status quo powers have strong economic links with threatening powers, weaker balancing postures and conciliatory policies by status quo powers, and aggression by aspiring revisionist powers, are more likely. I then illustrate how these hypotheses explain the development of the Franco-Russian alliance of the 1890s and its effectiveness as a deterrent of Germany up to 1905, British ambivalence toward Germany from 1906 to the First World War, the weakness of British, French, Soviet, and American behavior toward Germany in the 1930s and World War II, and the American and European responses to the Soviet threat, including the NATO alliance, and the "long peace" of the post-1945 era.     

R&D value mapping: A new approach to case study-based evaluation

This study presents an approach to harnessing the power of case studies for research evaluation calledR&D value mapping (RVM). While this method uses case studies in the traditional manner to provide in-depth insights, it also structures case studies through an analytical framework that yields quantitative data and less subjective “lessons learned”. When properly applied, RVM can yield an inventory of outcomes and empirical generalizations regarding the determining variables. A particular advantage of the approach is that it not only provides an indication of the type and amount (though not a single numerical index) of outcome, but also gives insight into the reasons outcomes are achieved. Thus, RVM is useful for policy management strategies seeking to replicate success. The specific steps associated with the RVM method are illustrated through studies that have applied the technique. The authors gratefully acknowledge support from of the Department of Energy, Basic Energy Sciences and previous contracts from Sandia National Laboratories and the New York State Energy Research & Development Authority. A number of persons have made useful comments on the RVM method. We are particularly grateful to David Roessner, Juan Rogers, Gretchen Jordan and Iran Thomas.