A Poisson model of incidents of international terrorism in the United States

Abstract

Various haphazard, and often uncoordinated, efforts have been devoted to discouraging and combatting terrorism. Unfortunately, there has been a noticeable lack of quantitative studies of the problem of terrorism. Nevertheless, it can be expected that the problem of international terrorism will eventually be a focus for operations researchers. A factor fundamental to any OR study is an understanding of the underlying generating process for incidents of terrorism. Based on incidents of terrorism from 1968 to 1974, this paper notes that the Poisson is a good model for the occurrence of incidents of international terrorism in the United States. Results of both chi‐square and Kolmogorov‐Smirnov tests are presented. Finally, an unusual result, inconsistent with popular beliefs, is noted.     

Portfolio models and planning for export diversification: Malawi,Tanzania and Zimbabwe

Evidence is presented regarding strengths and limitations of portfolio approaches as applied to diversifying export earnings. An empirical application using data from Malawi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe is used to demonstrate these strengths and limitations. Modifications of the typical portfolio approach to export diversification are presented; these modifications help make the approach more plausible for use in developing countries. The modified approach is shown to provide guidance to policymakers who seek simultaneously to increase export earnings and reduce their instability.     

Reviews

Arabic Edition of the British Council Map of Europe and the Middle East. Scale 1: 11,000,000. Royal Geographical Society

Iraq Irrigation Handbook: Part I. Euphrates. Compiled by Ahmed Sousa, under the direction of J. D. Atkinson. Published at Baghdad by the Government of Iraq, 1944. 10” × 7”. Pp. in, with 35 tables, 18 figures and 1 plate, also, in a portfolio 15” × 14”, 16 other plates. Price not stated.

Jenghis Khan. By W. Yan. Hutchinson International Authors, Ltd. 9s. 6d.

From Tunisia to Normandy. By Major‐General H. Rowan‐Robinson, C.B., C.M.G., D.S.O. Hutchinsoh.

Defence is Our Business. By Brigadier J. G. Smyth, V.C., M.C. Hutchinson and Co. 10s. 6d.

Anna and the King of Siam. By Margaret Landon. Illustrated by Margaret Ayer. John Day Co., New York. Pp. 391.

The Modern Prison System of India. By Lieut.‐Colonel F. A. Barker, C.I.E., O.B.E., M.A., M.D., B.C., I.M.S. (Retd.).

Fabian Colonial Essays. With an Introduction by A. Creech Jones, M.P., and edited by Dr. Rita Hinden. Geo. Allen and Unwin. Pp. 261. 8s. 6d. 1945.

Modern Exploration. F. Kingdon Ward. 124 pp. Published by Jonathan Cape at 6s.     

Japan's rights in Manchuria

The Chinese ‐ a Study of a Hong Kong Community. By Cornelius Osgood. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, 1976 (3 vols.). Pp. 1264. Preface. Appendix. Illus‐. Index. $45.00.

The Government and Politics of Hong Kong. By N. J. Miners. Oxford University Press (East Asian Social Science Monographs), Hong Kong 1975; New York, Melbourne, London, 1976. Pp. xiv+288. Appendices, Bibliog. Index. £8.50 (£5.95 paperback).

Chinese Labour under British Rule. By Joe England and John Rear. Oxford University Press (East Asian Social Science Monographs) Hong Kong, 1975; New York, Melbourne, London, 1976. Pp. xvi+368. Appendices. Index. £10.00 (£7.50 paperback).     

Film and lantern lectures

The Dutch East Indies. By Amry Vandenbosch. University of California Press. 1941. (Second Edition.)

Wanderer Between Two Worlds: An Autobiography. By Norman Bent‐wich. 8/1/2>” x 5/3/4>”. Pp. vii+358. Kegan Paul, Trench, Trübner and Co., Ltd. 12s. 6d.

Gertrude Bell. By M. R. Ridley. Blackie. 206 pp. Map. Four illustrations. 3s. 6d.

Modern Iran. By L. P. Elwell‐Sutton. Pp. xii+234. Illustrations, maps and plans. Routledge. 1941. 12s. 6d.

Ruz‐gar i Nau. A quarterly illustrated magazine in Persian. No. 2, Autumn, 1941. New York: Doubleday, Doran and Co., Ltd.; London: Hodder and Stoughton. is. net or 20 cents.

Turkey and Britain, is.

This Impertinence. By Peter Arnott. Jenkins. 12s. 6d

Soviet Asia : Its Records and its Problems. By E. S. Bates. Pp. 191 and a map. Jonathan Cape. 8s. 6d.

Green Prison. Twenty Years in Thailand. By W. Leigh Williams. 8/1/2>” x 6”. Pp. 352. Illustrations. London. Herbert Jenkins. 12s. 6d.

The Earth is the Lord's. A novel by Taylor Caldwell. Pp. 400. Collins. 19.41. 9s. 6d.

Genius of Friendship:T. E. Lawrence. By Henry Williamson. 10/1/4>” x 6/3/4>”. Pp. 78. Faber and Faber. 12s. 6d.     

Behavioural Response to a Sudden Health Risk: Dengue and Educational Outcomes in Colombia

Epidemics tend to have a debilitating influence on the lives of directly afflicted families. However, the presence of an epidemic can also change the behaviour and outcomes of those not directly affected. This paper makes use of a short, sharp, unexpected epidemic to examine the behavioural response of the public to a sudden shift in the perceived risk to one’s health and mortality. Our analysis finds that unafflicted school students change their behaviour substantially, affecting important life outcomes. In particular, we find that between 1.9 and 4.7 fewer students, out of a typical cohort of 47 pupils, sit their school leaving examination for every additional 10 cases of severe Dengue per 10 000 inhabitants in a municipality. We rule out several possible mechanisms, leaving an increase in the salience of the disease’s risks as a plausible explanation for our findings.