President Roosevelt,Admiral Stark,and the Unsent Warning to Pearl Harbor: A Research Note

Admiral Harold R. Stark (1880–1972) was appointed Chief of Naval Operations in August 1939 and served in that role until removed in March 1942. It was on his watch that the Japanese raided Pearl Harbor on 7 December 1941. Nowadays the prevailing view of Stark seems to be largely shaped by the official verdict of the Secretary of the Navy, James V. Forrestal, namely that “Admiral Harold R. Stark, USN (Retired), shall not hold any position in the United States Navy which requires the exercise of superior judgment”. Our very different view is that Stark was a patriot who willingly sacrificed his reputation to preserve that of President Franklin D. Roosevelt and to enable him, as the one person capable of leading the Allies to victory in war against Nazi Germany, to assume his proper mantle.     

Business Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Vulnerabilities and Planning for Changes in Water,Temperature, Sea Level,Natural Resources,Health Effects,and Extreme Events

The ability to predict the timing and magnitude of future climate and temperature changes at a regional level has become increasingly important for corporate decision making and enterprise risk management. In the short term, companies could face decisions about acquisitions of water-dependent companies and natural resources or might be planning facilities or operations in communities vulnerable to erosion and flooding, changes in water supplies, and increasing health-care costs. In the intermediate term, companies need to assess these vulnerabilities to determine appropriate insurance coverage, plan for new infrastructure, implement preventative health-care programs, or protect natural resources. A technical approach needs to involve predictive tools that can provide bounding estimates at regional scales. The implications of those changes need to be translated to consequences that can affect specific businesses. Corporations must be cognizant of the uncertainties in this forecasting process and for that reason it is essential to link the likelihood of outcomes with the magnitudes of consequences. This article outlines an approach that is gaining traction as a way to address this complex matter.     

A statistical methodology for the comparison of blue gel pen inks analyzed by laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry

A statistical methodology for the objective comparison of LDI-MS mass spectra of blue gel pen inks was evaluated. Thirty-three blue gel pen inks previously studied by RAMAN were analyzed directly on the paper using both positive and negative mode. The obtained mass spectra were first compared using relative areas of selected peaks using the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Euclidean distance. Intra-variability among results from one ink and inter-variability between results from different inks were compared in order to choose a differentiation threshold minimizing the rate of false negative (i.e. avoiding false differentiation of the inks). This yielded a discriminating power of up to 77% for analysis made in the negative mode. The whole mass spectra were then compared using the same methodology, allowing for a better DP in the negative mode of 92% using the Pearson correlation on standardized data. The positive mode results generally yielded a lower differential power (DP) than the negative mode due to a higher intra-variability compared to the inter-variability in the mass spectra of the ink samples.     

Unsafe sex: do feelings matter?

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships among self-efficacy for condom use during distress (SE-Condom Distress), self-efficacy related to general HIV prevention skills (SE-HIV), and HIV risk behaviors, attitudes, and knowledge. Two hundred and twenty two adolescents with psychiatric disorders between 13 and 18 years-old participated. Participants completed measures related to HIV Self-Efficacy, HIV Attitudes, and Sexual Behaviors. Self-efficacy for condom use during distress (SE-Condom Distress) was significantly associated with more HIV protective behaviors. Controlling for observed covariates, SE-Condom Distress was the only variable significantly associated with consistent condom use in a multiple logistic regression (OR=2.43). Self-efficacy regarding condom use during affective arousal is closely associated with HIV-related attitudes and behaviors. Clinicians need to be alert to subtle signs of distress as adolescents contemplate safer sexual behavior.     

Does Mode Matter For Modeling Political Choice? Evidence From the 2005 British Election Study

Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75083 e-mail: hclarke{at}utdallas.edu e-mail: mstewart{at}utdallas.edu Paul Whiteley Department of Government, University of Essex, Colchester, England CO4 3SQ e-mail: whiteley{at}essex.ac.uk e-mail: sanders{at}essex.ac.uk (Corresponding author) Although political scientists have begun to investigate theproperties of Internet surveys, much remains to be learned aboutthe utility of the Internet mode for conducting major surveyresearch projects such as national election studies. This paperaddresses this topic by presenting the results of an extensivesurvey comparison experiment conducted as part of the 2005 BritishElection Study. Analyses show statistically significant, butgenerally small, differences in distributions of key explanatoryvariables in models of turnout and party choice. Estimatingmodel parameters reveals that there are few statistically significantdifferences between coefficients generated using the in-personand Internet data, and the relative explanatory power of rivalmodels is virtually identical for the two types of data. Ingeneral, the in-person and Internet data tell very similar storiesabout what matters for turnout and party preference in Britain.Determining if similar findings obtain in other countries shouldhave high priority on the research agenda for national electionstudies. Authors' note: We thank the U.K. Economics and Social ResearchCouncil (ESRC) and Gary Williams, Senior Science Manager atthe ESRC, for their generous support of, and interest in, thisproject. We also thank the editor and anonymous reviewers forhelpful comments and suggestions.     

The optimal prize structure of symmetric Tullock?contests

We show that the optimal prize structure of symmetric n-player Tullock tournaments assigns the entire prize pool to the winner, provided that a symmetric pure strategy equilibrium exists. If such an equilibrium fails to exist under the winner-take-all structure, we construct the optimal prize structure which improves existence conditions by dampening efforts. If no such optimal equilibrium exists, no symmetric pure strategy equilibrium induces positive efforts.     

Creating Constituencies: Presidential Campaigns, the Scope of Conflict, and Selective Mobilization

We investigate how material and symbolic campaign appeals may motivate segments of the electorate to be more engaged with the unfolding presidential campaign; this engagement is a first step toward bringing these populations into an electoral coalition. We pair two massive new data collections—the National Annenberg Election Study capturing public opinion across an entire campaign and The Wisconsin Advertising Project recording and cataloging the political commercials aired by campaigns—to examine how the candidates’ choice of issues affects who gets into the game. We find evidence that appeals to symbolic interests are more likely than appeals to material interest to selectively engage targeted groups.     

Adoption,Homosexuality and the European Convention on Human Rights: Gas and Dubois v France

On 15 March 2012 the European Court of Human Rights (the Court) issued its first judgment addressing the differential treatment of same‐sex and opposite‐sex couples in respect of the adoption of a child. 1 The Court held that excluding same‐sex couples in civil partnerships, who have no legal right to marry, from adoption provisions available to married opposite‐sex couples does not violate rights guaranteed by the European Convention on Human Rights (the Convention). I argue that the Court's reasoning in Gas and Dubois v France is unpersuasive and unsustainable in light of its wider case law.     

Shades of blue: Confidence in the police in the world

Purpose

The present study tests the hypothesis that regime nature as a structural characteristic explains variations in public confidence in the police.

Methods

Combining five sources of data from 50 nations with 69,309 respondents, the current article extends the extant research by using hierarchical logistic regression analyses with ample sample sizes at both levels to test the hypothesis with a series of control variables.

Findings

In addition to the largely consistent findings from the individual-level predictors, the results show that that there is a U-shaper convex curvilinear relationship between the levels of democracy and confidence in the police. Residents in long-term stable authoritarian regimes as well as in long-term stable democracies display elevated levels of confidence in the police, whereas short-term or unstable authoritarian nations and nations in democratic transition have the lowest level of confidence in the police. Besides, confidence in the police is higher among citizens in nations with more government efficiency and is lower among residents of countries with higher homicide rates.

Conclusion

Regime nature is important in understanding confidence in the police. In addition, governments should make more efforts to promote their efficiency in order to win citizens’ support and they are expected to reduce homicide rates.     

Take the car keys away: Metropolitan structure and the long road to delinquency

Purpose

This research fulfills a void in offender mobility discourse. Metropolitan socioeconomic and spatial structure, defined in crime pattern theory as the urban backcloth, plays a significant role in shaping travel behavior; and yet, current analysis of offender mobility continues to favor individual characteristics to account for travel range.

Methods

Using a large sample of juveniles, both delinquent and at-risk youth (N = 2,552), this study compared the predictive utility of individual characteristics against indicators of urban backcloth.

Results

Delinquent youth were found to be more sensitive to the environmental conditions exerted by community-level socioeconomic characteristics than their at-risk counterparts. However, two factors—intercity hierarchical structure and motor vehicle access—accounted for travel variability among all youth.

Conclusions

Offending behavior must be examined within the context of a dynamic environmental context formed by the metropolitan socioeconomic and spatial structure. Delinquents constitute an identifiable subgroup of youth.