Does Mode Matter For Modeling Political Choice? Evidence From the 2005 British Election Study

Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75083 e-mail: hclarke{at}utdallas.edu e-mail: mstewart{at}utdallas.edu Paul Whiteley Department of Government, University of Essex, Colchester, England CO4 3SQ e-mail: whiteley{at}essex.ac.uk e-mail: sanders{at}essex.ac.uk (Corresponding author) Although political scientists have begun to investigate theproperties of Internet surveys, much remains to be learned aboutthe utility of the Internet mode for conducting major surveyresearch projects such as national election studies. This paperaddresses this topic by presenting the results of an extensivesurvey comparison experiment conducted as part of the 2005 BritishElection Study. Analyses show statistically significant, butgenerally small, differences in distributions of key explanatoryvariables in models of turnout and party choice. Estimatingmodel parameters reveals that there are few statistically significantdifferences between coefficients generated using the in-personand Internet data, and the relative explanatory power of rivalmodels is virtually identical for the two types of data. Ingeneral, the in-person and Internet data tell very similar storiesabout what matters for turnout and party preference in Britain.Determining if similar findings obtain in other countries shouldhave high priority on the research agenda for national electionstudies. Authors' note: We thank the U.K. Economics and Social ResearchCouncil (ESRC) and Gary Williams, Senior Science Manager atthe ESRC, for their generous support of, and interest in, thisproject. We also thank the editor and anonymous reviewers forhelpful comments and suggestions.     

The optimal prize structure of symmetric Tullock?contests

We show that the optimal prize structure of symmetric n-player Tullock tournaments assigns the entire prize pool to the winner, provided that a symmetric pure strategy equilibrium exists. If such an equilibrium fails to exist under the winner-take-all structure, we construct the optimal prize structure which improves existence conditions by dampening efforts. If no such optimal equilibrium exists, no symmetric pure strategy equilibrium induces positive efforts.     

Creating Constituencies: Presidential Campaigns, the Scope of Conflict, and Selective Mobilization

We investigate how material and symbolic campaign appeals may motivate segments of the electorate to be more engaged with the unfolding presidential campaign; this engagement is a first step toward bringing these populations into an electoral coalition. We pair two massive new data collections—the National Annenberg Election Study capturing public opinion across an entire campaign and The Wisconsin Advertising Project recording and cataloging the political commercials aired by campaigns—to examine how the candidates’ choice of issues affects who gets into the game. We find evidence that appeals to symbolic interests are more likely than appeals to material interest to selectively engage targeted groups.     

Adoption,Homosexuality and the European Convention on Human Rights: Gas and Dubois v France

On 15 March 2012 the European Court of Human Rights (the Court) issued its first judgment addressing the differential treatment of same‐sex and opposite‐sex couples in respect of the adoption of a child. 1 The Court held that excluding same‐sex couples in civil partnerships, who have no legal right to marry, from adoption provisions available to married opposite‐sex couples does not violate rights guaranteed by the European Convention on Human Rights (the Convention). I argue that the Court's reasoning in Gas and Dubois v France is unpersuasive and unsustainable in light of its wider case law.     

Shades of blue: Confidence in the police in the world

Purpose

The present study tests the hypothesis that regime nature as a structural characteristic explains variations in public confidence in the police.

Methods

Combining five sources of data from 50 nations with 69,309 respondents, the current article extends the extant research by using hierarchical logistic regression analyses with ample sample sizes at both levels to test the hypothesis with a series of control variables.

Findings

In addition to the largely consistent findings from the individual-level predictors, the results show that that there is a U-shaper convex curvilinear relationship between the levels of democracy and confidence in the police. Residents in long-term stable authoritarian regimes as well as in long-term stable democracies display elevated levels of confidence in the police, whereas short-term or unstable authoritarian nations and nations in democratic transition have the lowest level of confidence in the police. Besides, confidence in the police is higher among citizens in nations with more government efficiency and is lower among residents of countries with higher homicide rates.

Conclusion

Regime nature is important in understanding confidence in the police. In addition, governments should make more efforts to promote their efficiency in order to win citizens’ support and they are expected to reduce homicide rates.     

Take the car keys away: Metropolitan structure and the long road to delinquency

Purpose

This research fulfills a void in offender mobility discourse. Metropolitan socioeconomic and spatial structure, defined in crime pattern theory as the urban backcloth, plays a significant role in shaping travel behavior; and yet, current analysis of offender mobility continues to favor individual characteristics to account for travel range.

Methods

Using a large sample of juveniles, both delinquent and at-risk youth (N = 2,552), this study compared the predictive utility of individual characteristics against indicators of urban backcloth.

Results

Delinquent youth were found to be more sensitive to the environmental conditions exerted by community-level socioeconomic characteristics than their at-risk counterparts. However, two factors—intercity hierarchical structure and motor vehicle access—accounted for travel variability among all youth.

Conclusions

Offending behavior must be examined within the context of a dynamic environmental context formed by the metropolitan socioeconomic and spatial structure. Delinquents constitute an identifiable subgroup of youth.     

Gender differences in the effects of prison on recidivism

Purpose

This study examines gender differences in the effectiveness of prison in reducing recidivism.

Methods

Using data on released male and female prisoners, we apply a propensity score matching methodology to compare the effects of prison on recidivism versus three counterfactual conditions—jail, intensive probation, and probation.

Results

The analyses indicated that a prison term, as compared to placement on intensive probation or traditional probation, is associated with a greater likelihood of property and drug recidivism. There was little evidence that recidivism was greater when compared to jail, that prison increased the likelihood of violent or other recidivism, or that the criminogenic effect of prison is appreciably greater for females or males.

Conclusions

The findings do not support arguments that prison is an effective alternative to non-incarcerative punishments or that it exerts a differential effect on females or males. Further research is needed on what features of the prison experience contribute to the observed effects.     

Deterring gun crime materially using forensic coatings

Surface coatings that can help deter and solve gun crime are described. These nanoengineered coatings have been applied and evaluated on brass cartridge cases, where they increase associative forensic evidence through nanotag donation to the handler and the retention of handler's DNA. In future we expect this approach to be used for other surfaces and conditions.     

Statistical discrimination of black gel pen inks analysed by laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry

Pearson correlation coefficients were applied for the objective comparison of 30 black gel pen inks analysed by laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry (LDI-MS). The mass spectra were obtained for ink lines directly on paper using positive and negative ion modes at several laser intensities. This methodology has the advantage of taking into account the reproducibility of the results as well as the variability between spectra of different pens. A differentiation threshold could thus be selected in order to avoid the risk of false differentiation. Combining results from positive and negative mode yielded a discriminating power up to 85%, which was better than the one obtained previously with other optical comparison methodologies. The technique also allowed discriminating between pens from the same brand.     

Numerical classification of curvilinear structures for the identification of pistol barrels

This paper demonstrates a numerical pattern recognition method applied to curvilinear image structures. These structures are extracted from physical cross-sections of cast internal pistol barrel surfaces. Variations in structure arise from gun design and manufacturing method providing a basis for discrimination and identification. Binarised curvilinear land transition images are processed with fast Fourier transform on which principal component analysis is performed. One-way analysis of variance (95% confidence interval) concludes significant differentiation between 11 barrel manufacturers when calculating weighted Euclidean distance between any trio of land transitions and an average land transition for each barrel in the database. The proposed methodology is therefore a promising novel approach for the classification and identification of firearms.