Identifying the Source of Incumbency Advantage through a Constitutional Reform

This study provides one of the first causal estimates of both the personal and partisan incumbency advantages. Using data on six local elections taking place during the last 20 years in 278 municipalities in Portugal, it relies on a reform introducing mayoral term limits as a natural experiment that creates exogenous variation on the incumbency status of officeholders while holding the incumbency status of the party constant. A new methodology combining two quasi‐experimental methods, the regression discontinuity and the difference‐in‐discontinuities designs, allows for a credible estimation of the independent personal and partisan returns to incumbency. Results causally identify the personal effect as the driver of the incumbency advantage.     

Does Training and Coaching Matter? An 18-Month Evaluation of a Community Supervision Model

During the last decade, several formalized approaches have been developed to improve the effectiveness of probation and parole by implementing evidence-based research into community supervision practices. A key component of these new approaches are the use of officer coaching sessions, which are designed to improve officer fidelity in the core correctional skill areas. This study explores the impact of an initial training and monthly coaching sessions in the Effective Practices in Community Supervision (EPICS) model on probation and parole officer use of core correctional skills. The results examine the average quarterly officer use of skills over an 18-month follow-up period based on training status (i.e., trained versus untrained officers) in the EPICS model. This study adds to the understanding of the role training and coaching may play in improving officer use of core correctional skills. Policy implications and recommendations for future research are also discussed.     

Explaining Support for Non-nationalist Parties in Post-conflict Societies in the Balkans

Parties willing to engage in cross-ethnic political cooperation are essential for the stability and democracy of ethnically divided post-conflict states. The investigation of voting in Macedonia and Bosnia, which are similarly small, impoverished, ethnically fragmented and threatened states that arose out of Yugoslavia, helps uncover factors that encourage voters to support parties willing to engage in cooperative multiethnic governance. Analysis of survey data suggests that supporters of the non-nationalist challengers in the first post-violence elections expressed both strong positive associations with the past communist system and clear negative assessments of the governing record of the incumbent nationalists, sentiments that were stronger among Macedonians than among Bosniaks. Data, however, call into question popular contentions that voters' support for non-nationalists is rooted in their social tolerance or engagement in civil society. The finding that Macedonian support for non-nationalist parties is partly due to negative voting combines with difficult domestic social and economic conditions, unfriendly neighbours and uncertain regional integration processes to suggest continuing challenges for Macedonia.     

State budget periodicity: An analysis of the determinants and the effect on state spending

Much of the public budgeting literature focuses on the institutional rules of budgeting and how those rules affect process and outcomes. This study focuses on a particularly rudimentary rule of budgeting: the length of the budget period. State budgets are dictated (constitutionally or statutorily) to recur over one-or two-year intervals. Statistical analysis of the determinants of state budget periodicity shows that the more states spend, ceteris paribus, the more likely they are to budget annually. I hypothesize that budget periodicity has the opposite effect on spending: Biennial budget states spend more, ceteris paribus, than annual budget states spend. Ordinary least squares analysis does not support the hypothesis, but with instrumental variable methods, biennial budgeting exhibits a positive and statistically significant effect on state spending.     

Hair analysis for delta(9)-THC,delta(9)-THC-COOH,CBN and CBD,by GC/MS-EI. Comparison with GC/MS-NCI for delta(9)-THC-COOH

A sensitive analytical method was developed for quantitative analysis of delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (delta(9)-THC), 11-nor-delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol-carboxylic acid (delta(9)-THC-COOH), cannabinol (CBN) and cannabidiol (CBD) in human hair. The identification of delta(9)-THC-COOH in hair would document Cannabis use more effectively than the detection of parent drug (delta(9)-THC) which might have come from environmental exposure. Ketamine was added to hair samples as internal standard for CBN and CBD. Ketoprofen was added to hair samples as internal standard for the other compounds. Samples were hydrolyzed with beta-glucuronidase/arylsulfatase for 2h at 40 degrees C. After cooling, samples were extracted with a liquid-liquid extraction procedure (with chloroform/isopropyl alcohol, after alkalinization, and n-hexane/ethyl acetate, after acidification), which was developed in our laboratory. The extracts were analysed before and after derivatization with pentafluoropropionic anhydride (PFPA) and pentafluoropropanol (PFPOH) using a Hewlett Packard gas chromatographer/mass spectrometer detector, in electron impact mode (GC/MS-EI). Derivatized delta(9)-THC-COOH was also analysed using a Hewlett Packard gas chromatographer/mass spectrometer detector, in negative ion chemical ionization mode (GC/MS-NCI) using methane as the reagent gas. Responses were linear ranging from 0.10 to 5.00 ng/mg hair for delta(9)-THC and CBN, 0.10-10.00 ng/mg hair for CBD, 0.01-5.00 ng/mg for delta(9)-THC-COOH (r(2)>0.99). The intra-assay precisions ranged from <0.01 to 12.40%. Extraction recoveries ranged from 80.9 to 104.0% for delta(9)-THC, 85.9-100.0% for delta(9)-THC-COOH, 76.7-95.8% for CBN and 71.0-94.0% for CBD. The analytical method was applied to 87 human hair samples, obtained from individuals who testified in court of having committed drug related crimes. Quantification of delta(9)-THC-COOH using GC/MS-NCI was found to be more convenient than GC/MS-EI. The latter may give rise to false negatives due to the detection limit.     

STR data for the AmpFlSTR Profiler Plus loci from Greece

Allele frequencies for the nine STRs included in the AmpFlSTR Profiler Plus kit (D3S1358, VWA, FGA, D8S1179, D21S11, D18S51, D5S818, D13S317 and D7S820) were estimated from a sample of 143 unrelated individuals living in different regions of Greece.