Explaining Support for Non-nationalist Parties in Post-conflict Societies in the Balkans

Parties willing to engage in cross-ethnic political cooperation are essential for the stability and democracy of ethnically divided post-conflict states. The investigation of voting in Macedonia and Bosnia, which are similarly small, impoverished, ethnically fragmented and threatened states that arose out of Yugoslavia, helps uncover factors that encourage voters to support parties willing to engage in cooperative multiethnic governance. Analysis of survey data suggests that supporters of the non-nationalist challengers in the first post-violence elections expressed both strong positive associations with the past communist system and clear negative assessments of the governing record of the incumbent nationalists, sentiments that were stronger among Macedonians than among Bosniaks. Data, however, call into question popular contentions that voters' support for non-nationalists is rooted in their social tolerance or engagement in civil society. The finding that Macedonian support for non-nationalist parties is partly due to negative voting combines with difficult domestic social and economic conditions, unfriendly neighbours and uncertain regional integration processes to suggest continuing challenges for Macedonia.     

State budget periodicity: An analysis of the determinants and the effect on state spending

Much of the public budgeting literature focuses on the institutional rules of budgeting and how those rules affect process and outcomes. This study focuses on a particularly rudimentary rule of budgeting: the length of the budget period. State budgets are dictated (constitutionally or statutorily) to recur over one-or two-year intervals. Statistical analysis of the determinants of state budget periodicity shows that the more states spend, ceteris paribus, the more likely they are to budget annually. I hypothesize that budget periodicity has the opposite effect on spending: Biennial budget states spend more, ceteris paribus, than annual budget states spend. Ordinary least squares analysis does not support the hypothesis, but with instrumental variable methods, biennial budgeting exhibits a positive and statistically significant effect on state spending.     

PREDICTING STATE ABORTION LEGISLATION FROM U.S. SENATE VOTES: THE EFFECTS OF APPARENT IDEOLOGICAL SHIRKING

The recent Supreme Court decision in Webster v. Reproductive Health Services giving more discretion to states to regulate abortion has led to speculation concerning which states might move to limit abortions. Medoff (1989) attempts to predict how state legislatures might vote on state-level abortion legislation by examining the 1983 Senate vote on the Hatch/Eagleton Amendment. We expand upon Medoff's analysis by incor- porating recent developments in agency theory as it applies to the political agents (i.e., Senators) in the empirical model. The results demonstrate that accounting for Senatorial "shirking" and state ideology substantially im- proves the predictive ability of the model for the Senate abortion vote. The predicted votes of the state's Senators, after eliminating the effects of apparent Senatorial shirking, are used to infer the likelihood of state-level legislation substantially restricting abortion. We compare these results to a base model that ignores the issue of shirking and find increased predict- ability and several differing results.     

Facial approximation: globe projection guideline falsified by exophthalmometry literature

The projection of the cornea from the bony orbit has been determined, in facial approximation, by centrally locating the eyeball in the orbit and positioning the cornea so that its most anterior point falls in line with a tangent dropped from the mid-superior to the mid-inferior orbital rim. However, there appears to be no scientific evidence to justify this guideline; yet, there have been numerous studies that measure globe projection in living subjects, from the lateral orbit using an exophthalmometer. The aim of this study was to determine if the traditional facial approximation guideline is consistent with the exophthalmometry literature. MRI research shows that corneal projection is underestimated using the traditional facial approximation guideline. An underestimation is also strongly supported by statistical comparisons of globe projection measures taken using more traditional instruments (e.g., Hertel's exophthalmometer) to skull morphology (p < 0.006). It is suggested that the traditional facial approximation guideline not be used in future facial approximations since it appears to under-predict anterior globe projection by 4 mm on average. It is also suggested that average exophthalmometer values be used until more accurate and precise ways of determining globe projection have been determined.     

Do resemblance ratings measure the accuracy of facial approximations?

Since forensic facial approximations are used to promote recognition of a deceased person, an accurate forensic facial approximation (FFA) should be easily recognized as the person to whom the skull belonged (target individual). However, the accuracy of FFAs has been previously assessed by the direct comparison of an FFA to the corresponding target individual for similarity (i.e., a resemblance rating). Resemblance ratings may not indicate a facial approximation's accuracy since the resemblance of non-target individuals is not accounted for. This experiment tests the validity of using resemblance ratings to assess the accuracy of FFAs. The study indicates that there is no statistically significant difference between: (a) resemblance ratings of FFAs to target individuals and (b) resemblance ratings of FFAs to individuals incorrectly identified as the target individual. It is concluded that it is not possible from resemblance ratings to determine the accuracy and/or quality of a facial approximation since a non-target individual may receive a resemblance rating equal to, or higher than, the target individual.     

Hair analysis for delta(9)-THC,delta(9)-THC-COOH,CBN and CBD,by GC/MS-EI. Comparison with GC/MS-NCI for delta(9)-THC-COOH

A sensitive analytical method was developed for quantitative analysis of delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (delta(9)-THC), 11-nor-delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol-carboxylic acid (delta(9)-THC-COOH), cannabinol (CBN) and cannabidiol (CBD) in human hair. The identification of delta(9)-THC-COOH in hair would document Cannabis use more effectively than the detection of parent drug (delta(9)-THC) which might have come from environmental exposure. Ketamine was added to hair samples as internal standard for CBN and CBD. Ketoprofen was added to hair samples as internal standard for the other compounds. Samples were hydrolyzed with beta-glucuronidase/arylsulfatase for 2h at 40 degrees C. After cooling, samples were extracted with a liquid-liquid extraction procedure (with chloroform/isopropyl alcohol, after alkalinization, and n-hexane/ethyl acetate, after acidification), which was developed in our laboratory. The extracts were analysed before and after derivatization with pentafluoropropionic anhydride (PFPA) and pentafluoropropanol (PFPOH) using a Hewlett Packard gas chromatographer/mass spectrometer detector, in electron impact mode (GC/MS-EI). Derivatized delta(9)-THC-COOH was also analysed using a Hewlett Packard gas chromatographer/mass spectrometer detector, in negative ion chemical ionization mode (GC/MS-NCI) using methane as the reagent gas. Responses were linear ranging from 0.10 to 5.00 ng/mg hair for delta(9)-THC and CBN, 0.10-10.00 ng/mg hair for CBD, 0.01-5.00 ng/mg for delta(9)-THC-COOH (r(2)>0.99). The intra-assay precisions ranged from <0.01 to 12.40%. Extraction recoveries ranged from 80.9 to 104.0% for delta(9)-THC, 85.9-100.0% for delta(9)-THC-COOH, 76.7-95.8% for CBN and 71.0-94.0% for CBD. The analytical method was applied to 87 human hair samples, obtained from individuals who testified in court of having committed drug related crimes. Quantification of delta(9)-THC-COOH using GC/MS-NCI was found to be more convenient than GC/MS-EI. The latter may give rise to false negatives due to the detection limit.     

STR data for the AmpFlSTR Profiler Plus loci from Greece

Allele frequencies for the nine STRs included in the AmpFlSTR Profiler Plus kit (D3S1358, VWA, FGA, D8S1179, D21S11, D18S51, D5S818, D13S317 and D7S820) were estimated from a sample of 143 unrelated individuals living in different regions of Greece.     

The Contribution of Local Public Infrastructure to Private Productivity and its Political Economy: Evidence from a Panel of Large German Cities

This paper proposes a simultaneous-equation approach to theestimation of the contribution of infrastructure accumulationto private production. A political economy model for theallocation of public infrastructure investment grants isformulated. Our empirical findings, using a panel of largeGerman cities for the years 1980,1986, and 1988, suggest thatcities ruled by a council sharing the State (`Bundesland')government's current political affiliation were particularlysuccessful in attracting infrastructure investment grants.With regard to the contribution of infrastructure accumulationto growth, we find that public capital is a significant factorin private production. Moreover, at least for the samplestudied, we find that simultaneity between output and publiccapital is weak; thus, feedback effects from output toinfrastructure are negligible.