An attempt to detect “pregnancy susceptibility” in indigent adolescent girls

Programs for widespread dissemination of birth control information and devices among adolescents are subject to strong resistance from many groups and may be ineffective anyway. An alternative approach to reducing the alarming frequency of unplanned pregnancy among unmarried adolescents might be group or individual counseling for those most susceptible, to unplanned pregnancies. Accurate identification would be necessary to implement this alternative. Developed in this paper is an inferential strategy for identifying in well-defined groups unmarried adolescents who seem susceptible. When carefully evaluated, an inferential strategy, based, on several concepts from Bayesian inference theory, appears remarkably accurate as a means of identification. Besides specific predicReceived her M. A. in education and Ph.D. in psychology at University of Houston. Main interest was adult development. Deceased in 1971.Received his M.D. from Baylor Pediatric internship and residency at University of Michigan Hospital. Main interest is adult development.Received his Ph.D. in psychology at Ohio State University. Main interest is probability (decision) theory.Received her Ph.D. in educational psychology at University of Texas in Austin. Main interest is adult development.Received from M.D. Johns Hopkins, School of Medicine. Main interest is obstetrics and gynecology.Received her M.A. in English at Southern Methodist University. Main interest is research communications.     

External validity and assignment of experimental vs. control treatment providers within small work groups: a research note

Journal of Experimental Criminology - When offenders or victims are randomly assigned to receive experimental vs. current treatments, the external validity of results may depend on whether...     

“Soft” policing at hot spots—do police community support officers work? A randomized controlled trial

Objectives

To determine whether crime-reduction effects of increased police patrols in hot spots are dependent on the “hard” threat of immediate physical arrest, or whether “soft” patrols by civilian (but uniformed) police staff with few arrest powers and no weapons can also reduce crime. We also sought to assess whether the number of discrete patrol visits to a hot spot was more or less important than the total minutes of police presence across all visits, and whether effects based on counts of crime would be consistent with effects on a Crime Harm Index outcome.

Methods

We randomly assigned 72 hot spots into 34 treatment units and 38 controls. Treatment consisted of increases in foot patrol by uniformed, unarmed, Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs) who carry no weapons and hold few arrest powers beyond those of ordinary citizens. GPS-trackers on every PCSO and Constable in the city yielded precise measurements of all patrol time in all hot spots. Standardized mean differences (Cohen’s d), OLS regression model, and Weighted Displacement Quotient are used to assess main effects, to model the interaction effect of GPS data with treatment, and to measure the diffusion-of-benefits of the intervention, respectively. Outcomes included counts of incidents as well as the Cambridge Crime Harm Index.

Results

As intended, patrol visits and minutes by Police Constables were equal across the treatment and control groups. The sole difference in policing between the treatments groups was in visits to the hot spots by PCSOs, in both the mean daily frequency of discrete visits (T?=?4.65, C?=?2.66; p?≤?.001) and total minutes across all visits (T?=?37.41, C?=?15.92; p?≤?.001), approximately two more ten-minute visits per day in treatment than in control. Main effect estimates suggest 39 % less crime by difference-in-difference analysis of reported crimes compared to control conditions, and 20 % reductions in emergency calls-for-service compared to controls. Crime in surrounding areas showed a diffusion of benefits rather than displacement for treatment hot spots compared to controls. A “Reiss’s Reward” effect was observed, with more proactive patrols predicting less crime across treatment hot spots, while more reactive PCSO time predicted more crime across control hot spots. Crime Harm Index estimates of the seriousness value of crime prevented ranged from 85 to 360 potential days of imprisonment in each treatment group hot spot (relative to controls) by a mean difference of 21 more minutes of PCSO patrol per day, for a potential return on investment of up to 26 to 1.

Conclusions

A crime reduction effect of extra patrols in hot spots is not conditional on “hard” police power. Even small differences in foot patrols showing the “soft power” of unarmed paraprofessionals, holding constant vehicular patrols by Police Constables, were causally linked to both lower counts of crimes and a substantially lower crime harm index score. Correlational evidence within the treatment group suggests that greater frequency of discrete PCSO visits may yield more crime reduction benefit than greater duration of those visits, but RCTs are needed for better evidence on this crucial issue.

     

THE BEST SEAT IN THE HOUSE: THE COURT ASSIGNMENT AND JUDICIAL SATISFACTION

A survey of 355 judges examined the differences in judicial satisfaction between those assigned to problem-solving courts—such as drug treatment and unified family—and judges in other more traditional assignments such as family law and criminal courts. The unified family court systems, like drug treatment courts, have generally adopted the principles of therapeutic jurisprudence. Significant differences were found on each of the three survey scales: (1) helpfulness, (2) attitude toward litigants, and (3) positive effects of assignment. The judges who were in the problem-solving courts (drug treatment and unified family court) scored higher on all three scales than those who were not (traditional family and criminal court). The group of problem-solving court judges consistently scored higher than the other group of judges, with the drug treatment court judges scoring the highest. The group of traditional criminal court and family court judges scored less positively, with the criminal court judges having the lowest scores. The problem-solving court judges were more likely to report believing that the role of the court should include helping litigants address the problems that brought them there and were more likely to observe positive changes in the litigants. They were also more likely to believe that litigants are motivated to change and are able to do so. They felt more respected by the litigants and were more likely to think that the litigants were grateful for help they received. The problem-solving court judges were also more likely to report being happy in their assignments and to believe that these assignments have a positive emotional effect on them.     

Testing for Analysts’ Bias in Crime Prevention Experiments: Can We Accept Eisner’s One-tailed Test?

Eisner (Journal of Experimental Criminology, this issue, 2009) suggests that developer-led evaluations often make programs look better than independent evaluations do because the former suffer systematic biases in favor of prevention success. Yet, his proposed remedies suffer their own systematic bias, constituting a ‘one-tailed’ test of bias in only one direction. In this response we suggest that a more objective assessment of ‘analysts’ effects’ requires a ‘two-tailed’ test of bias, in which reviewers would measure indications of bias both for and against success in evaluations reported by both developers and independent evaluators. After exploring the full complexity of the distinction between developers and evaluators, we report on one case in which independent evaluations were more favorable than those of developers. We then suggest possible indicators of analysts’ biases against finding success that may characterize the work of developers who “bend over backwards” to find harm in their programs, and of independent evaluators who may seek to “get a scalp” of a developer or a program.