我爱北京

我叫Peter Gonzalez,来自美国的加利福尼亚。12年前,我从加州来到了中国。在这以前,我对中国是一无所知。当我穿着短裤踏上中国的土地,中国人都用奇怪的眼神看着我。当时是秋天,天气已经很凉了,他们一定认为,这个老外疯了。我心里清楚,我没疯,只是心里越来越兴奋,因为我喜欢上了中国,喜欢上了北京。     

Unemployment and crime: the role of apprehension

An increase in the unemployment rate decreases the opportunity cost of crime and increases the crime rate according to standard microeconomics models. However, a large body of empirical research has shown that an increase in unemployment may increase or decrease crime. By incorporating the return to crime into standard economic models, this paper shows that an increase in unemployment, as in recessions, decreases the opportunity cost of crime and the return to crime as well. As a result, the effect of unemployment on crime is ambiguous and depends on the apprehension rate. An increase in the unemployment rate tends to decrease the crime rate at lower apprehension rates, but to increase it at higher apprehension rates. An increase in the generosity of unemployment insurance benefits does not necessarily reduce the crime rate, and the effect of more generous unemployment insurance on crime depends again on the apprehension rate.