POLICY AS A MOVING TARGET: A CALL FOR CONCEPTUAL REALISM

Since the early 1970s, policy scholars have paid great attention to issues of policy implementation, treating it as the "missing link" between policy formulation and results. Most often, policy problems have been seen as static phenomena that can be corrected by carefully specified programs. This paper, drawing upon examples from Swedish energy policy, argues that this is not the case, that political and social conditions are so prone to change that implementation must be a dynamic process if it is to be effective. This has distinct conceptual and practical implications for the study and design of policy implementation.     

The political process and the use of debt financing by state governments

Empirical evidence offered in this study suggests that decisions by state government officials to effect debt-financed spending depend in part on the state's gubernatorial election cycle. More specifically, the results reveal relative increases in state debt issues in anticipation of elections, and furthermore, they reveal that such increases are more significant for states characterized by high interparty political competition. While theoretical limitations preclude a definitive explanation for these results, the evidence is consistent with a view of state political markets where incumbent parties manipulate public policy so as to enhance the probability of success in pending elections. This insight is significant in that it suggests a relationship between public policy decisions and election cycles in a context heretofore unexplored.     

Programme and performance budgeting in Malaysia

This paper reviews the evolution of programme and performance budgeting (PPB) in Malaysia from its beginning in 1969, through the in-depth implementation phase which began in 1972, to the present day. It outlines the system in the Ministry of Health, where PPB has been extensively developed and comments on the systems established in other in-depth ministries, in several of which little appears to have been achieved. In 1981 all other agencies were asked to adopt PPB in their budget submissions. Compliance has been superficial. The paper explores the constraints to the further development of PPB. These range from difficulties of securing appropriate staff, lack of top-level commitment and information problems, to the inherent difficulties of programming and performance measurement. In seeking to evaluate the success of PPB the paper adopts two approaches. The first, involving a small questionnaire survey amongst those involved in PPB, reveals rather guarded opinions concerning its usefulness and progress. The second, which explores the use made of PPB, reveals little use by legislators, budget officers or line managers, and no link between PPB and the planning process. However the audit department expresses considerable interest in relation to performance auditing. In summary the achievements of PPB have been modest.     

The influence of analysis on U.S. defense policys

Much of the policy literature holds that rigorous policy analysis as practiced in the defense policymaking community has a much greater influence than analysis performed in the nondefense or ‘domestic’ sectors. This argument is examined by, first, offering several examples of quantitatively driven decisions in the U.S. Department of Defense and, second, inquiring more precisely as to the nature of the actual decision variables. The conclusion is that the defense and domestic modes of policy analysis and decisionmaking are not as disparate as they are usually perceived. In practice, both camps share many of the same problems and could benefit from shared solutions. Paper prepared for delivery at the 1985 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, the New Orleans Hilton, August 29–September 1, 1985. Revised for the Seventh Annual Research Conference of the Association for Public Policy and Management, Washington, D.C., October, 1985.