Teaching public policy in a public administration program

An overlooked aspect of academic concern in public administration is the realm of public policy. Policy intrudes into administration at a number of crucial points; administration influences the direction and emphasis of policy in various ways. These interrelationships warrant more attention in the training of public administrators. Regrettably, they have remained largely off-limits in the training of public administrators. Why and how we should proceed to alter this state of affairs is the essence of the symposium that follows.     

Forecasting the 2013 German Bundestag Election Using Many Polls and Historical Election Results

This article reports on an attempt to forecast the outcome of the 2013 election to the German Bundestag. In contrast to the predominant academic approach to forecast incumbent vote shares from measures of government popularity, economic conditions and other fundamental variables, we entirely relied on data from published trial heat polls. Opposite to common practice in the news media, we did not take isolated polls as election forecasts in their own right. Instead, we used historical data to assess empirically the relationship between polls and election outcomes, and combined extrapolations from current polls in a Bayesian manner. The forecast was published one month ahead of the election. The retrospective evaluation of our method was added after the election. While our method is parsimonious and provides a large lead time, the performance at the 2013 election was underwhelming. We offer additional suggestions how the approach can be improved in future scenarios.     

Coping with stress through the microcosms of home and family among arctic whalers and explorers

The essay examines an aspect of family life that has been ignored by many researchers: the role of representations of family and home for men whose work requires prolonged periods of separation and distance. Content analysis of diaries and correspondence (primarily written during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries) shows that Arctic explorers and whalers engaged in activities reminiscent of those popular at home. We hypothesize that such activities may have helped the men to bear with an environment characterized by danger, discomfort, uncertainty, remoteness, isolation, and lack of privacy. Constructing these microcosms also engaged the crews' creativity and energy in relieving long stretches of unfilled time, and may have prepared them for a smoother re-integration upon their return home. The diaries and letters also expressed the voyagers' longings for their family and their developing of surrogate emotional ties with their ships and shipmates.     

An Empirical Example of the Condorcet Paradox of Voting in a Large Electorate

Social choice theory suggests that the occurrence of cyclical collective preferences should be a widespread phenomenon, especially in large groups of decision-makers. However, empirical research has so far failed to produce evidence of the existence of many real-world examples of such, and none in large electorates. This paper demonstrates the existence of a real cyclical majority in a poll of Danish voters' preferred prime minister, using pair-wise comparisons. This result is compared with those of a similar poll, but by using different voting methods, each resulting in different choices. The example demonstrates the empirical reality of cyclical collective preferences and the importance of the choice of institutions.