A molecular classification of moles and its use in filiation tests

Pregnancies, including ones that follow sexual assaults, occasionally produce hydatidiform moles. The alleged fathers (AFs) of moles have been tested for paternity by identifying the mole's locus phenotype—the one or two visible paternal obligate alleles (POAs) per locus. The probability that the mole inherited the POAs from the AF was divided by the probability that the mole inherited the POAs from a random man. This likelihood ratio (LR) would increase if the mole's specific genotype was known. Moles are generated in five different ways that produce five distinct genotypes. Examining a mole's multilocus STR profile reveals a mole's pathogenesis, determines locus genotypes, and increases paternity LRs.     

Preferential Trade Agreements and Trade Expectations Theory

Studies find that members of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are less likely to be involved in militarized conflict. An expectation of continuing amicable trade relations is among the factors linking PTAs to peace. However, this role of PTAs is difficult to test due to the problem of observational equivalence; PTAs correlate with trade levels and liberalization, factors also linked to peace. In this article, we isolate the impact of PTAs on trade expectations by distinguishing between signed agreements and those in force. A focus on signed but not-yet-in-force PTAs allows us to assess the correlation between agreements and peace before other pacifying, and therefore potentially confounding, elements emerge. Statistical tests spanning 1957 to 2000 demonstrate that signed PTAs are pacifying, while in-force agreements have no statistically significant impact when controlling for other factors linked to peace.     

Parentage of Hydatidiform Moles

We were presented with the STR (short tandem repeat) profiles from two separate paternity trios. Each trio consisted of a mother, an alleged father, and products of conception (POC) that contained a hydatidiform mole but no visible fetus. In both cases , antecedent pregnancies had followed alleged sexual assaults. Mole classification and pathogenesis are described in order to explain the analyses and statistical reasoning used in each case. One mole exhibited several loci with two different paternal alleles, indicating it was a dispermic (heterozygous) mole. Maternal decidua contaminated the POC, preventing the identification of paternal obligate alleles (POAs) at some loci. The other mole exhibited only one paternal allele/locus at all loci and no maternal alleles, indicating it was a diandric and diploid (homozygous) mole. In each case, traditional calculations were used to determine paternity indices (PIs) at loci that exhibited one paternal allele/locus. PIs at mole loci with two different paternal alleles/locus were calculated from formulas first used for child chimeras that are always dispermic. Combined paternity indices in both mole cases strongly supported the paternity of each suspect.