Do we need warm leaders? Exploratory study of the role of voter evaluations of leaders’ traits on turnout in seven European countries

Previous research on leader effects has focused exclusively on the impact of voters’ evaluations of leaders on vote choice, disregarding possible effects on the prior step of deciding whether or not to turn out to vote. In line with the personalisation of politics thesis, leaders have a higher impact among dealigned voters. Previous studies have demonstrated that leader effects are stronger among voters who voice their dealignment – namely party switchers. However, the potential impact of leaders among those who exited (i.e., who have abstained) is still unstudied. Could leaders have a mobilisation effect and therefore trigger turnout decisions? What characteristics of party leaders are more relevant in this regard? This article is the first comparative study to examine how the evaluation of party leaders’ traits influences voter turnout in general elections. The work incorporates data from election studies across seven countries with different social contexts (Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and Hungary). Characteristics of leaders were grouped into two dimensions – competence and warmth – in accordance with the stereotype content model and relevant studies on leaders’ traits evaluation. Multiple binary logistic regression models were performed to analyse the predictive power of competence and warmth on turnout, controlling for sociodemographic, political ideology variables and voters’ past political behaviour. Results reinforce the personalisation of politics theory, showing the utmost relevance of warmth personality traits of leaders in voter turnout decisions. Competence personality traits were found to be relevant only in some situations. Interaction effects were also demonstrated between warmth evaluations and identifying with a right-wing party as well as past political behaviour with both warmth and competence.     

Partisan Gaps in Political Information and Information‐Seeking Behavior: Motivated Reasoning or Cheerleading?

Do partisan disagreements over politically relevant facts, and preferences for the information sources from which to obtain them, represent genuine differences of opinion or insincere cheerleading? The answer to this question is crucial for understanding the scope of partisan polarization. We test between these alternatives with experiments that offer incentives for correct survey responses and allow respondents to search for information before answering each question. We find that partisan cheerleading inflates divides in factual information, but only modestly. Incentives have no impact on partisan divides in information search; these divides are no different from those that occur outside the survey context when we examine web‐browsing data from the same respondents. Overall, our findings support the motivated reasoning interpretation of misinformation; partisans seek out information with congenial slant and sincerely adopt inaccurate beliefs that cast their party in a favorable light.     

Against the Grain of Urban Bias: Elite Conflict and the Logic of Coalition Formation in Colonial and Post-Colonial Africa

The theory of urban bias was a major contribution to the evolution of contemporary theories of political economy that remains highly relevant today. Yet theorists of urban bias have still not produced a general explanation that accounts for anomalous cases of what we call “rural incorporation,” or coalition strategies based on modest rural producers. These anomalous cases suggest that the collective action underpinnings of urban bias theory underdetermine outcomes. This paper advances a new explanation of the anomalous African cases of Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, and Zimbabwe. After detailing the costs of rural incorporation, we theorize the conditions that would motivate state elites to overcome their pro-urban biases and offer substantial material benefits to non-elite agrarian producers. Rural incorporation is an optimal strategy only when state elites are locked in unusually intense conflict with their rivals. Most nationalist movements in Africa did not meet this condition and their leaders followed pro-urban policies. The three outliers are all cases of settler colonialism: bitter rivalry between European settlers and native planters created the conditions for rural incorporation. We show how native planters and their political allies selected rural incorporation as a political-economic instrument of commercial competition and political supremacy. Case studies of Ghana and Nigeria demonstrate that in the absence of political and economic rivalry with settlers, African leaders selected the “default” strategy of urban bias.     

Estimating postmortem interval for human cadavers in a sub‐tropical climate using UV‐Vis‐near‐infrared Spectroscopy

Estimating postmortem interval (PMI) of surface found skeletal remains is challenging. This novel study used UV‐Vis‐NIR spectroscopy to scan soil collected from cadaver decomposition islands (CDIs) ranging from 15‐ to 963‐d postmortem and control soils. A decomposition product spectra model (DPS model) was constructed by deducting the control soil spectra from the CDI soil spectra for the estimation of postmortem indices: PMI (d), ADD₄, ADD₁₀, and ADD₂₀. The DPS model (n = 55) was calibrated and subjected to a full cross‐validation. Calibration R² and RPD for the DPS model ranged from 0.97 to 0.99 and from 6.1 to 9.9, respectively, for the four postmortem interval indices. Validation R² and RPD for the DPS model ranged from 0.73 to 0.80 and from 1.9 to 2.2, respectively. The DPS model estimated postmortem intervals for three test CDIs in a clay soil under perennial grassland (test set 1; n = 3) and six CDIs in a sandy soil under a loblolly pine forest (test set 2; n = 6). Test set 1 had PMI prediction ranges from ?69 to ?117 days, ?796 to +832 ADD₄, +552 to +2672 ADD₁₀, and ?478 to ?20 ADD₂₀ of observed PMI. Test set 2 PMI prediction ranged from ?198 to ?65 days, ?9923 to +2629 ADD₄, ?6724 to +1321 ADD₁₀, and ?2850 to +540 ADD₂₀ of observed PMI. Test set 2 had poor predictions for two CDIs, for all measures of postmortem indices resulting in discussion of sampling depth, effect of body mass index (BMI), and scavenging.     

A molecular classification of moles and its use in filiation tests

Pregnancies, including ones that follow sexual assaults, occasionally produce hydatidiform moles. The alleged fathers (AFs) of moles have been tested for paternity by identifying the mole's locus phenotype—the one or two visible paternal obligate alleles (POAs) per locus. The probability that the mole inherited the POAs from the AF was divided by the probability that the mole inherited the POAs from a random man. This likelihood ratio (LR) would increase if the mole's specific genotype was known. Moles are generated in five different ways that produce five distinct genotypes. Examining a mole's multilocus STR profile reveals a mole's pathogenesis, determines locus genotypes, and increases paternity LRs.