Inferring Transition Probabilities from Repeated Cross Sections

This paper discusses a nonstationary, heterogeneous Markov modeldesigned to estimate entry and exit transition probabilitiesat the micro level from a time series of independent cross-sectionalsamples with a binary outcome variable. The model has its originsin the work of Moffitt and shares features with standard statisticalmethods for ecological inference. We outline the methodologicalframework proposed by Moffitt and present several extensionsof the model to increase its potential application in a widerarray of research contexts. We also discuss the relationshipwith previous lines of related research in political science.The example illustration uses survey data on American presidentialvote intentions from a five-wave panel study conducted by Pattersonin 1976. We treat the panel data as independent cross sectionsand compare the estimates of the Markov model with both dynamicpanel parameter estimates and the actual observations in thepanel. The results suggest that the proposed model providesa useful framework for the analysis of transitions in repeatedcross sections. Open problems requiring further study are discussed.     

The behavioral and cognitive effects of two benzodiazepines associated with drug-facilitated sexual assault

Recently, sexual assaults have included the use of benzodiazepines to impair the victim. Our aim was to examine the physiological, cognitive, and behavioral effects of flunitrazepam (FN) and clonazepam (CLO). In the first study, ten healthy volunteers received a single oral dose of 2 mg of FN. Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), behavioral reports and staff observations were then collected. In the second study, ten healthy volunteers received a single oral dose of 3 mg of CLO. Vital signs, performance on the MMSE and Digit Symbol Substitution Test, and behavioral changes were examined. FN significantly decreased systolic and diastolic blood pressure 4 h post drug ingestion with diastolic remaining low at 6 h. CLO was associated with changes in temperature and decreased systolic pressure. FN affected memory and attention 4 h following ingestion. CLO affected memory and attention throughout the study (6 h), and psychomotor performance was decreased 2 h post ingestion. In both studies, subjects were disinhibited and did not perceive their own impairment.     

Allies at War in Afghanistan: Anglo–American Friction over Aerial Poppy Eradication, 2004–2007

From 2004 to 2007, the Anglo–American alliance was at the heart of counter-narcotics policy-making in Afghanistan. Despite agreement on the broader direction of strategy, one issue generated significant diplomatic conflict: aerial eradication. The debate over its introduction was extremely controversial within both the Anglo–American alliance and the wider George W. Bush Administration, pitting the State Department and its Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs against the Pentagon and the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Both the Pentagon and British bitterly opposed its introduction fearing it would alienate the rural community and ultimately damage the coalition’s hearts and minds campaign. This analysis provides unique coverage of the fraught policy-making process, paying particular attention to how the British opposed aerial eradication, which included conspiring with the Pentagon in an attempt to defeat the policy. This area of the debate is particularly under-researched, yet is significant as Britain was, after all, the G8 lead nation on counter-narcotics.