Social disorganization, marriage, and reported crime: A spatial econometrics examination of family formation and criminal offending

It has long been documented that “marriage matters” for a variety of reasons. Furthermore, there has been considerable debate over the causal relationship between marriage and a number of its associated correlates, most often related to social processes of health behaviors, criminal involvement, and achievement. While most research associated with marriage and crime is concerned with the individual, little is understood concerning the ecological effect of marriage rates. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the F.B.I.'s Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR), this study tests such relationships through the implementation of spatially-centered analytic approaches concerning the potential independent effects of marriage rates within a social disorganization context. It is important to understand such aggregate level effects in the face of the existing literature, which relies heavily on relational associations and is subject to ecological fallacy. Analytic techniques incorporate Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and spatial regression.     

Dangerous decisions: A theoretical framework for understanding how judges assess credibility in the courtroom

Purpose. Numerous wrongful convictions have brought into question the ability of judges and juries to accurately evaluate the credibility of witnesses, including defendants. Dangerous decisions theory (DDT) offers a theoretical framework to build our understanding of the decision‐making process that can culminate in such injustices. Arguments. According to DDT, the reading of a defendant's face and emotional expressions play a major role in initiating a series of ‘dangerous’ decisions concerning his/her credibility. Specifically, potent judgments of trustworthiness occur rapidly upon seeing a defendant's face, subjectively experienced as intuition. Originally evolved to reduce the danger to the observer, the initial judgment – which may be unreliable – will be enduring and have a powerful influence on the interpretation and assimilation of incoming evidence concerning the defendant. Ensuing inferences will be irrational, but rationalized by the decision maker through his/her subjective schemas about trustworthiness and heuristics for identifying deceptive behaviour. Facilitated by a high level of motivation, a non‐critical, tunnel vision assimilation of potentially disconfirming or ambiguous target information can culminate in a mistaken evaluation of guilt or innocence. Conclusions. Empirically based education and responsible expert testimony could serve to reduce such biases and improve legal decision‐making.     

Identifying Media Effects Through Low-Cost,Multiwave Field Experiments

Field experiments are notoriously difficult to implement when studying media effects. They are often prohibitively expensive, require the cooperation of a nonacademic entity, and measure effects some time after exposure to treatment. In this article, we outline a design for low-cost, multiwave field experiments of media effects. Researchers can implement this design on their own and can control the timing of when they measure effects. We demonstrate the feasibility of the design with an application to the study of presidential debates.     

Righting the Resource Curse: Institutional Politics and State Capabilities in Edo State,Nigeria

Abstract

The poor record of liberal reforms sponsored by the international community in postcolonial settings underscores the real politik of institutional change. What we call a ‘new normal’ in development policy and practice foregrounds the role of agency – leadership, networks of connectors and convenors, entrepreneurs and activists – but it has less to say about the political and economic conditions of possibility in which agents operate. The putative powers of agency seem most challenged in contexts of extreme resource dependency and the resource curse. The particular case of Edo, a state in the oil rich Niger delta region of Nigeria, illustrates the intersection of agency and structural conditions to show how ‘asymmetric capabilities’ can emerge to create, constrain and make possible particular reform options.     

Gendered Narratives: Stories and Silences in Transitional Justice

Stories told about violence, trauma, and loss inform knowledge of post-conflict societies. Stories have a context which is part of the story-teller’s life narrative. Reasons for silences are varied. This article affirms the importance of telling and listening to stories and notes the significance of silences within transitional justice’s narratives. It does this in three ways. First, it outlines a critical narrative theory of transitional justice which confirms the importance of narrative agency in telling or withholding stories. Relatedly, it affirms the importance of story-telling as a way to explain differentiated gender requirements within transitional justice processes. Second, it examines gendered differences in the ways that women are silenced by shame, choose silence to retain self-respect, use silence as a strategy of survival, or an agential act. Third, it argues that compassionate listening requires gender-sensitive responses that recognize the narrator’s sense of self and needs.     

From clichés to slogans: towards a Deleuze–Guattarian critique of ideology

When thinking about ideology as a form of practice, Deleuze and Guattari show how ideology can circulate through the social as cliché, where clichés are themselves ideological tools that function to order the world or ideologically pattern social action and social relations. Against clichés Deleuze and Guattari insist on the power and political significance of what they call slogans, where slogans or the practice of sloganizing can imply a critique of the forms of ideology we encounter in everyday life. Put differently, a Deleuze–Guattarian critique of ideology implies a clearing-away of the clichés that ideologically play through the canvas of our social–political world.     

Managing Public Finance and Procurement in Fragile and Conflicted Settings

ABSTRACT

Successful transition from conflict and fragility hinges on the quality and legitimacy of public financial management (PFM) systems. This article shows that such systems develop asymmetrically in these settings. Formal aspects of modern systems are adopted, but a layered series of informal arrangements govern resource management. Analysis of data from Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability assessments of 101 countries explores aspects of this asymmetry and different explanations are considered for why elites seem to choose not to invest trust, resources, and capacity in making mainstream PFM systems functional. These explanations focus on the incentives created by three “public” resources: illicit flows, domestic revenues, and strategic or aid flows. Mainstream PFM systems are applied to a small part of these flows. The illustrative case of Cambodia shows how a layered system has emerged to govern such flows, undermining the influence of formal public finance management systems. The article offers suggestions to address these issues.     

Terrorism Risk, Resilience and Volatility: A Comparison of Terrorism Patterns in Three Southeast Asian Countries

Objective

This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Methods

We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity.

Results

Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia.

Conclusions

Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.