西方世界深陷三重危机

西方的金融危机导致财政状况空前恶化,引发主权债务危机,主权债务危机的扩散造成金融市场和实体经济剧烈震荡,西方世界进入"财政危机—金融动荡—经济停滞"的严重恶性循环中,经济财政危机引起了西方社会对资本主义体制的再思考。     

HOW THE QOR'AN LED TO THE DOWNFALL OF MOSSADEGH

Apparently, in 1953 the World Bank put forward a compromise proposal to break the impasse between Mossadegh and the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Mossadegh asked Hassibi, a devout Muslim, to advise him whether he should accept the proposal. Hassibi consulted Abbas Parkhideh, a member of the oil company board, another devout man. As the story goes, the two men decided to resort to Estekhareh, the Persian practice of using the Qor'an to help with a difficult decision. On the basis of the ensuing consultation of the Qor'an, Habibi advised Mossdegh to reject the Bank's proposal. He did so. The coup that overthrew him occurred within a month.     

Macroeconomic performance and poverty in Brazil

Drawing on Brazilian time-series data this study finds an inelastic link between poverty and wages over the macroeconomic cycle that is devoid of the asymmetric effects that characterise the phenomenon's response to changes in the rate of unemployment. Deepening of structural reforms in the second half of the 1990s had no effect on the aforementioned relationships, which also varied little by regional level of development. Finally, the connection between poverty and long-term income changes was more elastic, suggesting an association between the economy's recent disappointing performance in alleviating poverty and its lacklustre growth record over the past two decades.     

The economics of poverty traps and persistent poverty: An asset-based approach

Longitudinal data on household living standards open the way to a deeper analysis of the nature and extent of poverty. While a number of studies have exploited this type of data to distinguish transitory from more chronic forms of income or expenditure poverty, this paper develops an asset-based approach to poverty analysis that makes it possible to distinguish deep-rooted, persistent structural poverty from poverty that passes naturally with time due to systemic growth processes. Drawing on the economic theory of poverty traps and bifurcated accumulation strategies, this paper briefly discusses some feasible estimation strategies for empirically identifying poverty traps and long-term, persistent structural poverty, as well as relevant extensions of the popular Foster-Greer-Thorbecke class of poverty measures. The paper closes with reflections on how asset-based poverty can be used to underwrite the design of persistent poverty reduction strategies.     

Philippine “normalization”: The politics of form

Abstract

Third World nations, on the whole, have amply demonstrated that they cannot produce the ambiance for the democratic institutions they inherited from their former imperial rulers. In such poor nations, class cleavages are widening as a result of structurally conservative development policies adopted by the ruling elite s in collusion with the First World. Elite attempts to limit “politics” to the symbolic level, safely played out in institutions largely insulated from any popular sharing in power, have been frequently repudiated. Popular demands for structural change in these countries have induced national elites to dismantle representative institutions and to turn to more coercive methods of control.     

Intelligence,diplomacy and the Japanese threat to British interests, 1914–41

This contribution looks at the ways in which the intelligence releases in the 1990s have helped to illuminate previously unknown or misunderstood aspects of the Anglo-Japanese relationship from 1914 to 1941. Although attention in the media has been focused on the release of the Security Service's records, these are of limited use in this area of study. Much more significant are the diplomatic intercepts that were collected by the Government Code and Cipher School, which not only add new angles to old questions, but also reveal British suspicions of Japan in areas not previously studied, such as Japanese pan-Asianism.     

The African ‘oil rush’ and US national security

The world's major oil-consuming nations, led by the USA, China and the Western European countries, are keenly interested in the development of African oil reserves, making huge bids for whatever exploration blocks become available and investing large sums in drilling platforms, pipelines, loading facilities and other production infrastructure. Indeed, the pursuit of African oil has taken on the character of a gold rush, with major companies from all over the world competing fiercely with one another for access to promising reserves. This ‘oil rush’ has enormous implications both for African oil producers and for the major oil-importing countries. For the producing countries it promises both new-found wealth and a potential for severe internal discord over the allocation of oil revenues (or ‘rents’); for the consuming countries, it entails growing dependence on imports of a vital substance from a region of chronic instability, with obvious national security overtones. Both these trends are reflected in US policy towards African oil. Desperate to procure additional supplies of foreign oil (to make up for the decline in domestic output), the Bush administration has made strenuous efforts to increase the role of US energy firms in African production. But because instability in Africa is an obstacle to such investment, it has sought to boost the internal security capacity of friendly African states and has laid the groundwork for direct US military involvement in Africa. At the same time Washington has become deeply concerned by China's growing interest in African oil, provoking an intense competitive contest between the two, with growing military overtones. In the end African societies will most probably suffer from this competition as an influx of arms bolsters the capacity of entrenched African regimes.