The forecasting potential of complex models

The nature and use of complex models for forecasting and policy simulation are analyzed on theoretical and empirical-performance grounds. The analysis suggests that while the accuracy of complex models in forecasting trends in such fields as economic and energy is, and will remain, undistinguished, complex models' special virtues of preserving counter-intuitive results and representing subsystem interdepedence could be used to better advantage than current practice permits. Suggestions for such improvements, through more diversified model structures, micro-process models in addition to the typical macro models, a mix of mechanically- and judgmentally-operated models, and the modeling of policy response, are reviewed.     

Book reviews

A. L. Meiendorf, Optimizatsiya khozyaistvennykh reshenii: metod analiza prirashchenii. Series: Aktual'nye problemy sel'skogo khozyaistva. Moscow: ‘Ekonomika’, 1976.

Oliver H. Radkey, The Unknown Civil War in Soviet Russia. A Study of the Green Movement in the Tambov Region, 1920–21. Stanford, Calif.: Hoover Institution, 1976. xiv+457 pp. $12.95.

Roy and Zhores Medvedev, Khrushchev—The Years in Power. London: OUP, 1977. xi+198 pp. £3.95.

Daniel F. Calhoun, The United Front: the TUC and the Russians, 1923–1928. Cambridge: CUP, 1976. 450 pp. £10.50.

Gabriel Gorodetsky, The Precarious Truce. Anglo‐Soviet Relations 1924–27. Cambridge: CUP, 1977. 289 pp. £9.00.

Herbert S. Dinerstein, The Making of a Missile Crisis: October 1962. Baltimore and London: Johns Hopkins UP, 1976. 302 pp. $14.95.

Donald R. Kelley, Kenneth R. Stunkel, Richard R. Wescott, The Economic Superpowers and the Environment: The United States, The Soviet Union, and Japan. San Francisco: W. H. Freeman & Co., 1976. 335 pp.

Fred Singleton (ed.), Environmental Misuse in the Soviet Union. New York and London: Praeger Publishers, 1976. xvii+103 pp. $13.50. £8.80.

Peter H. Juviler, Revolutionary Law and Order. Politics and Social Change in the USSR. New York: The Free Press, and London: Collier MacMillan, 1976. xii+274 pp. £11.05.

Richard Szawlowski, The System of the International Organizations of the Communist Countries. Leyden: A. W. Sijthoff, 1976. 322 pp.

Jürg Meister, Soviet Warships of the Second World War. London: Macdonald & Jane, 1977. 348 pp. £7.95.     

'Building a Better World'

Garran Oration Royal Institute of Public Administration Australia National Conference, 29 November -1 December 2003     

Security, Capacity and Post-Market Reforms: Public Management Change in 2003

Public sector change in 2003 was a product of external demands and internal pressures for improvement. The specific areas addressed are responses to security threats in the international environment; strengthening internal capacity, particularly through whole-of-government approaches; and fine-tuning the public management model in part through readjustments to the centre-agency relationship and greater emphasis on horizontal structures and processes.
This is the ninth year an administrative essay has been published in the journal since 1996. Earlier chronicles include: J. Stewart 55(1) 1996; S. Prasser 56(1) 1997; J. Homeshaw 57(3) 1998; J. Moon 58(2) 1999; J. Curtin 59(1) 2000; C. Broughton and J. Chalmers 60(1) 2001; N. Miragliotta 61(1) 2002; and J. Nettercote 62(1) 2003.
In this issue two chronicles are published — the first, by John Halligan and Jill Adams, focuses on external security and internal capacity building. The second assessment by Scott Prasser takes a different view of compliant management, poor decisions and reactive change.     

'Designing Better Health Care in the South': A Case Study of Unsuccessful Transformational Change in Public Sector Health Service Reform

This article presents a case study of a project known as 'Designing Better Health Care in the South' that attempted to transform four separately incorporated health services in southern Adelaide into a single regional health service. The project's efforts are examined using Kotter's (1996) model of the preconditions for transformational change in organisations and the areas in which it met or failed to meet these preconditions are analysed, using results from an evaluation that was commenced during the course of the attempted reform. The article provides valuable insights into an attempted major change by four public sector health organisations and the facilitators and barriers to such change. It also examines the way in which forces beyond the control of individual public sector agencies can significantly impact on attempts to implement organisational change in response to an identified need. This case study offers a rare glimpse into the micro detail of health care reform processes that are so widespread in contemporary health services but which are rarely systematically evaluated.     

The risky business of public–private partnerships

Public–private partnerships (PPPs) are now a common strand of third way government policy, with better efficiency promised from the private funding of public infrastructure through the transfer of risks to private parties. This paper aims to investigate, on an empirical basis, the realities of risk transfers in PPPs and compare this experience against both the rhetoric of project proponents and the formal contract conditions. The paper outlines some conceptual frameworks underpinning PPPs and establishes the notions of risk shifting and risk sharing. The range of typical risks encountered in infrastructure projects is specially considered, and differences to traditional project delivery arrangements are articulated. Some empirical experience on the transfer of risks under PPPs is then outlined through a case study. This analysis shows the extent to which risks were shifted to the private parties as planned, or whether risks remained with government. It is argued that while commercial risks were largely well managed, governance risks were not. It is critical to understand better the nature of risk transfers in PPPs in view of the large financial implications of these deals along with long contract terms.