携手走向可持续的未来

自1990年以来,欧盟GDP总值增长超过60％,温室气体净排放量却下降了1/4.更多的事实告诉我们,推进气候行动并不意味着回到过去.净排放量下降反而是我们向未来的一次飞跃. 在气候变化与环境领域,中国与欧盟在交流合作、共同进步和引领全球方面具有巨大潜力.     

20世纪国际关系领域的基准时间:历史视角中的三次世界大战

基准时间是宏观历史过程中的临界点,标志着一连串的重大变革可能会在较长时间内延续。基准时间具有九条标准,可以分为一等基准时间、二等基准时间和三等基准时间。20世纪的基准时间主要包括三次世界大战(一战、二战和冷战),第二次世界大战前后发生的变革比第一次世界大战和冷战前后的变革都要来得更为深远。将20世纪的三个基准时间置于两个世纪的视角中加以审视,可以突出现代性革命,这种视角能够观察20世纪的三个基准时间在正在展开的"全球性变革"这一大的主题下是否会相互联接、是如何相互联接的。20世纪国际政治的关键事件,都应该被视为19世纪"全球性变革"所引发的发展态势和挑战的后期结果。     

基于六边形理论的学生领导力发展观

在充满复杂性的时代,关注领导力是有必要的。在以快速变化、高度工业化为特征的第三个千年中,通讯与信息技术时代与数字世界需要能够推进世界革新的领导人。由于教育系统已经将培养政治领导、社会、经济、文化和科技等领域的领导人涵盖其中,而这些领导人将把握社会方向,促进世界发展。因此,学生领导力成为现阶段的重要学科。学生领导力发展六边形理论,内涵丰富,从个人、集体和社会各个角度出发,建立系统性观点,旨在进一步推进学生领导力发展理论。     

Family Cohesion and Romantic and Sexual Initiation: A Three Wave Longitudinal Study

Although the relation between family relationships and the timing of sexual debut has been the focus of many studies, research on mediating factors is scarce. This study examines whether low levels of family cohesion result in an earlier onset of romantic and sexual experiences, and whether the link between family cohesion and an early sexual debut is mediated by early romantic initiation. A longitudinal sample of 314 adolescent girls and 222 boys, aged 12–17 at Wave 1, completed questionnaires at three measurement points with three year intervals. The results showed that sexual debut followed romantic initiation for 77% of the participants. For early adolescent females (aged 12–14), high levels of family cohesion resulted in a later sexual debut and this association was fully mediated by a delay of romantic initiation. Among boys and older girls, timing of romantic initiation did not mediate the link between family cohesion and timing of sexual initiation. Early adolescent girls who have negative relationships with their parents turn to romantic relationships for intimacy and support, which subsequently provide the opportunity for an early sexual debut. Low levels of family cohesion thus primarily precipitate romantic initiation and sexual initiation appears to be secondary to this process among girls in this age group.     

Internalizing Symptoms: Effects of a Preventive Intervention on Developmental Pathways from Early Adolescence to Young Adulthood

This study examined the mediated and moderated effects of a universal family-focused preventive intervention, delivered during young adolescence, on internalizing symptoms assessed in young adulthood. Sixth grade students (N=446; 52% female; 98% White) and their families from 22 rural Midwestern school districts were randomly assigned to the experimental conditions in 1993. Self-report questionnaires were administered at seven time points (pre-test to young adulthood-age 21) to those receiving the Iowa Strengthening Families Program (ISFP) and to the control group. Results showed that growth factors of adolescent internalizing symptoms (grades 6-12) were predicted by ISFP condition and risk status (defined as early substance initiation). Moderation of the condition effect by risk status was found, with higher-risk adolescents benefitting more from the ISFP. Results also supported the hypothesis that the ISFP's effect on internalizing symptoms in young adulthood was mediated through growth factors of adolescents' internalizing symptoms; risk moderation, however, was only marginally significant in young adulthood. The relative reduction rate on clinical or subclinical levels of young adult internalizing symptoms was 28%, indicating that for every 100 young adults displaying clinical or subclinical levels of internalizing symptoms from school districts not offering an intervention, there could be as few as 72 displaying those levels of symptoms in school districts that offered middle school prevention programming. These findings highlight how the positive effects of family-focused universal interventions can extend to non-targeted outcomes and the related potential public-health impact of scaling up these interventions.     

Sexual Orientation, Partnership Formation, and Substance Use in the Transition to Adulthood

Evidence suggests that lesbian and gay young adults use substances more frequently than their heterosexual peers. Based on the life course perspective, we argue that this difference may be due to the unavailability of marriage as a turning point in the lives of lesbian/gay young adults. We use data from a nationally representative sample of youth (N = 13,581, 52.4% female, 68.6% white, ages 18—26) to examine sexual orientation differences in substance use and explore whether these differences vary by romantic partnership formation in young adulthood. We find that the formation of more serious partnerships (e.g., cohabitation, marriage) is associated with less frequent substance use among heterosexual young adults, though this pattern does not hold for lesbian and gay young adults. We conclude that the partnership options available to lesbians and gay men do not provide the same health-protective benefits that marriage does for heterosexuals.     

中美两国“和平崛起”之比较

国际关系中一个经久不变的现象是:当霸权国的地位受到崛起国的威胁时,它们之间的竞争有可能演变为冲突。现实主义认为这种导致战争风险的权力斗争不可避免,而"和平崛起"理念恰与现实主义这种"霸权易位、战争难免"逻辑相反。中国近十多年来一直承诺要"和平崛起",而且可能在20世纪70年代改革开放启动之时就已经奉行"和平崛起"政策。回顾历史,能够声称自己是"和平崛起"的现代大国可能只有美国。中国和美国是仅有的两个试图和平崛起的大国,考察它们各自历史经历的异同是一项有研究价值的工作。美国崛起于1865—1945年,在时间上比当今中国的崛起早一个世纪,虽然中国的崛起与美国的崛起处于不同的历史发展阶段,但如果有经验可供借鉴的话,中国可以从美国崛起之路学到哪些?本文在深入分析"和平崛起"的含义和中美"和平崛起"的案例可信度的基础上,比较当今中国的崛起过程与19世纪晚期美国崛起之路的主要相似点和不同点,得出了可供中国与国际社会参考的六条经验。     

苏维埃俄国的经济计划(续完)

本刊2012年第3期刊载了20世纪上半期俄罗斯著名经济学家鲍里斯·布鲁兹库斯(Boris D.Brutzkus)的《苏维埃俄国的经济计划》一书上卷1—6章,2013年第1期刊出该书上卷第7—10章及下卷第1—2章,2014年第1期刊出了下卷第3章1—3节。本期刊出该书下卷第3章第4—6节及第四章。至此,全书连载完毕。鲍里斯·布鲁兹库斯,1874年10月生于立陶宛,1908年在彼得堡农学院任教,1918年任彼得堡农业研究所教授,作为俄罗斯一流的农业问题权威,1922年任农业人民委员部彼得格勒省农业计划委员会主席。还在苏俄处于战时共产主义时期的1920年,他不断发表演讲批评苏俄的共产主义试验。1921年底将演讲内容整理成文,以《社会主义制度下的国民经济问题》为题,在俄国技术协会第十一部(工业经济部)创办的《经济学家》杂志上连载。杂志的立场和观点受到列宁、季诺维也夫等布尔什维克领导人激烈指责,杂志被查封,布鲁兹库斯和杂志编辑部其他大部分成员被捕并被驱逐出境。布鲁兹库斯被驱逐后去了德国,任柏林俄语学院教授。他和一些被驱逐的俄国学者一道创办了"俄罗斯科学研究所",继续从事苏维埃俄国经济问题研究。德国纳粹上台后,"俄罗斯科学研究所"宣告解散,布鲁兹库斯谢绝英国伯明翰大学的邀请,前往耶路撒冷的希伯莱大学任教。大战爆发前患肺癌去世。在社会主义思想史上,布鲁兹库斯的《苏维埃俄国的经济计划》一书第一次结合社会主义建设的亲身体验系统地批评了计划经济体制,论证了市场经济必然性与合理性。冯·哈耶克把布鲁兹库斯与冯·米瑟斯和马克斯·韦伯并列为20世纪早期确定了社会主义经济学研究核心问题的开拓者,认为他们对计划经济体制的批评显示了非凡的预见。种种原因,中文读者对布鲁兹库斯了解甚少。本刊1997年第1期发表的俄罗斯经济史专家列·希罗格罗德的文章《论布鲁兹库斯及其专著〈社会主义制度下的国民经济问题〉》,中央编译局张文成教授在《当代世界与社会主义》2002年第2期上的文章《计划经济体制命运的预言者?——布鲁兹库斯及其〈苏维埃俄国的经济计划〉一书》,可能是对布鲁兹库斯作系统介绍的仅有的两篇中文文献。刊发《苏维埃俄国的经济计划》一书,望能有助于学界对这位思想家的研究。本译文根据George RoutledgeSons,Ltd.1935年版译出。