A contribution to the discussion of probabilities and human hair comparisons

The paper by Gaudette and Keeping on "An Attempt at Determining Probabilities in Human Scalp Hair Comparison" in the Journal of Forensic Sciences (Vol. 19, No. 3, July 1974, pp. 599-606) has provoked considerable controversy. This paper highlights two of the sources of the controversy and shows how the probability, 1/4500, quoted by Gaudette and Keeping should be treated with caution. The necessity of the use of a likelihood ratio statistic is described. It is suggested that the hair examination form resulting from the responses to the questionnaire recently distributed by the authors and also the discussions at Quantico (Proceedings of the International Symposium on Forensic Hair Comparisons, 25-27 June 1985, Quantico VA) should be used to facilitate the collection of the data which will be necessary to enable a likelihood ratio statistic to be estimated effectively.     

The evolution of employment in Mexico: 1895-1980

Employment figures from the Mexican national census are the basis for this analysis of employment changes in Mexico between 1895-1980. The work identifies longterm trends in the volume and composition of employment and distinguishes 3 main periods in the evolution of employment. The first period, from 1895-1930, marked the end of a stage of development lasting until about 1907 in which sufficient internal stability was achieved to support Mexico's entrance into the world market. Export of agricultural products and metals was the principal focus of economic growth. Construction of roads and railroads was a central element of progress. But economic and social problems manifested in regional disparities, concentration of wealth, conflicts between economic sectors, low pay for agricultural workers, and fierce social and political control characterized the period and culminated in the Mexican Revolution. After the first decade of the 20th century the ability of the economy to absorb new workers began to decline, and the falling of crude activity rates was not reversed until the 1940s. During the 1920s, total employment increased less than 6%, reflecting a net increase of 403,000 male workers and a decrease of 110,000 female workers. The second major period of employment from 1930-1970 saw the change from an economy based on export of primary products to one based on manufacturing for the internal market. There were 2 subperiods, a stage of transition from 1930-50, the economy registered marked fluctuations, but by the 1940s the consolidation of state power and important reforms permitting expansion of the internal market were factors in an accelerated growth of employment relative to the preceding intercensal period. Despite considerable increases in agricultural employment, the relative share of the agricultural sector in total employment was beginning a decline. Employment registered the highest growth rates of the century in the 1940s and exceeded population growth. The increased employment was explained by accelerated growth and accumulation in manufacturing along with increases in commerce, services, construction, and agriculture. From 1950-70, industrial development was consolidated, and there was a generalized expansion in employment in manufacturing as well as in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The economy was less able to absorb new labor, primarily because the agricultural sector had reached the limits of expansion in both the commercial and peasant sector by 1965, at just the time that population growth was most rapid. During the 1970s, manufacturing employment grew less rapidly because of modernization, almost exclusive orientation to the internal market which limited expansion, and scarcity of funds for importing capital goods. A new model of growth will be needed if Mexico is to escape its present stagnation, and a significant share of economic activity will need to be oriented to export. Until this process is consolidated, the national economy is unlikely to show signs of sustained recuperation.     

System of cities dynamics in newly industrializing nations

Rapid industrialization in such countries as Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan suggests that the complex functional structures of cities in the periphery may appear early in development. This paper proposes a 4-stage framework for the dynamics of a system of cities in a developing country undergoing industrialization and encompassing both nonindustrial and industrial development. The synthesis is assessed with evidence from the newly industrializing Asian nations of Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan. The 4 stages of cities' industrial change include 1) increasing primacy with industrial satellites, 2) increasing primacy with industrial satellites and nodal towns on a transport network, 3) rapidly increasing primacy with rapidly growing industrial satellites and nodal towns on the transport network, and 4) decreasing primacy with slowly growing industrial satellites and rapidly growing peripheral industrial towns. The 4-stage synthesis suggests that economic development in the periphery may occur even while the primate city maintains its hegemony over control and coordination functions. Peripheral industrial growth does not challenge this hegemony. The growth of industrial cities is, instead, part of a process of regional specialization in which the low cost labor in the periphery becomes an attraction for industry. These stages are not inevitable. Government efforts are necessary to develop rural areas in terms of social improvements (education and health), capital infrastructure (transportation and utilities), and fair payments to farmers for their outputs. These seem to be the lessons learned from the industrialization process in Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan.     

Ethical concerns expressed by forensic psychiatrists

A survey was made of American Academy of Forensic Sciences (AAFS) forensic psychiatrists to evaluate whether there is concern among them about potential ethical problems in criminal justice work. Of the respondents, 93.8% had encountered such problems. The main concerns indicated were about those psychiatrists who become a "hired gun," become an advocate, do not give an honest opinion, or have problems with confidentiality. The need for ethical guidelines and further debate about ethical issues is presented.     

Unusual hanging deaths

Four unrelated hanging deaths involving young white males, all in enlisted status in the United States military, are presented. Taken in a military context, one scene served as a suicide note equivalent with the unmistakable message of extreme defiance toward military regulations. In two cases, the elaborate attire of the decedents could have lead to the misclassification of the manner of death if investigative information had not been considered. Extensive background investigation and review of medical records in the fourth case disclosed that the victim had an eight- to ten-year history of compressing his neck to cause unconsciousness. He left an extensive suicide note in which he concluded that "hanging would be good." Each case has certain unique features, as a group, the cases all demonstrate a continuum from obvious suicide to cases where the manner of death is, at first, equivocal.     

Marfan syndrome. A contribution to forensic medicine cases

A 19-year-old school boy suffered from fluctuating uncharacteristic chest pain in the last 20 h before his death. He died unexpectedly within a few minutes of a hemopericardium, which resulted from an aneurysmal rupture of the ascending aorta. The patient's past history as well as the autopsy and ultrastructural findings led to the diagnosis of Marfan's syndrome with alterations of the cardiovascular skeletal system but no ophthalmological involvement ("oligosymptomatic" form of Marfan's syndrome). Appraisal of the cause of death is made more difficult by the fact that medical treatment was undertaken on the same day, whereby subtotal liver crushing was established that had resulted from attempts at resuscitation.     

Non-commercial, accidental water transport (boating) fatalities

A study of non-commercial accidental water transport (boating) fatalities was performed on the case files of the Office of the Medical Examiner of Metropolitan Dade County in Miami, Fla., during the years 1980-1984. A total of 23 cases were collected and analyzed as to the age, race, sex, and the cause of death of the victim along with the blood alcohol content and the Urine EMIT drug screen at autopsy. Furthermore, the type of boat involved, the geographic locale, the time of the incident, the reason or risk factor for the incident, and the scene circumstances were also noted. Commonly, one is dealing with a male population below the age of 30 years who die of drowning. In approximately half of the cases alcohol is detected. The scenario involves "small" boats or canoes in the Atlantic Ocean or in canals in the afternoon or evening. Inexperience in boating/or stupidity plays a key role. A discussion ensues concerning recommendations designed to avoid such tragedies.     

An unusual shotgun injury pattern produced by an intermediate target

Discharge of a shotgun with a shotgun casing in its muzzle as a "dust cover" produced a pattern of injuries suggestive of combined intermediate- and distant-range wounds.     

The "empty heart" sign

Approximately 15% of victims of instantly lethal central nervous system trauma have an empty or nearly empty heart at autopsy. This article defines and discusses the "empty heart" sign.     

Legalization of consensual unions in Mexico

Data examined in this study are from the 1976 Mexican Fertility Survey. The authors review previous findings and compare information from this survey with data from the 1969 PECFAL Survey. They then examine the types of consensual union and factors such as women's age, educational status, occupation, premarital fertility, and rural or urban residence. The focus of the study is on the extent to which consensual unions eventually become legal marriages. The authors also investigate the increasing probability of termination of marriage through divorce or separation, especially in urban areas.