Disentangling the Weight of School Dropout Predictors: A Test on Two Longitudinal Samples

The aims of this study are to identify the most powerful predictors of school dropout and to determine how stable they are over time. Two generations of White French-speaking boys and girls from 12 to 16 years old (n = 791 in 1974, n = 791 in 1985) completed a self-administered questionnaire on their psychosocial adjustment at least one year before leaving school. As expected, the analyses showed that school, family, behavioral, social, and personality variables could all predict dropping out of school in the two samples. Furthermore, these predictors were quite stable over time. However, statistical improvement measures in logistic regression analyses indicated that school experience variables (i.e., grade retention, school achievement, school commitment) were the best screening variables for potential dropouts. The contribution of other psychosocial variables, even though significant, did not improve very much the capacity to identify who will drop out of school. The discussion highlights the implications of the findings for secondary prevention and screening practices.     

Dealignment, spatial polarisation and economic voting

Abstract. Estimates of voting by occupational class are provided for each of 22 regions in the UK for every general election since 1964. These are analysed, using a log-linear modelling strategy, to identify the changing degree of class dealignment and spatial polarisation within the British electorate over the period. The growing regional variability is consistent with expectations regarding the increasing volume of economic voting and the pattern of uneven development in the country: the north-south and urban-rural divides have both widened.     

Laissez-faire follies

He is a lecturer at the University of Dayton in Dayton, Ohio. His research centers on domestic political and economic influences on congressional decisions to terminate weapons production.     

The (non) equivalence theorem when there are matching grants as well as lump sum grants

In developing their influential equivalence theorem Bradford and Oates (1971) implicitly assume that there is a lump sum grant only. This paper explores whether the equivalence result continues to hold when the lump sum grant is part of a program of grants-in-aid which includes a matching grant. It is shown that the equivalence results as stated by Bradford and Oates does not hold in these more general circumstances; however, a much weaker equivalence result does hold. This finding is important because there has been a tendency in the empirical literature to assume that the equivalence result holds under quite general circumstances. It is also shown here that the combined use of lump sum and matching grants can produce a reverse flypaper effect.     

Labor market experiences of low-income black women in middle-class suburbs: Evidence from a survey of gautreaux program participants

This article reports on a highly unusual experiment in racial and economic integration, the Gautreaux program. This program helps black families who are either current or former residents of public housing move into subsidized housing in Chicago and its suburbs. Surveying a random sample of 332 participants, we find that suburban movers are significantly more likely to have a job post-move than city movers, even among those who had never had a job before moving. Multivariate analysis shows that these differences are significant even after controlling for respondents' previous work history, human capital, and personal characteristics. These results suggest that low-income urban blacks experience significant gains in employment by moving to middle-class suburbs. Thus, housing assistance may be an effective alternative to traditional welfare-to-work programs.