Development and evaluation of a survey-based type of benefit classification for the Social Security program

This attempt to classify Social Security beneficiaries by type of benefit using the new Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) has yielded promising results. Evaluations of the classification algorithm based on comparison of the estimated number of beneficiaries in each of the several categories to independent estimates of the number of beneficiaries indicate that in most instances a high percentage of each category has been identified. For the most part, age and monthly benefit amount size distributions seem reasonable. Furthermore, very few persons in the sample who were identified as Social Security beneficiaries could not be assigned to one or another of the benefit groups. The classification procedure also represents a marked improvement over earlier efforts to classify type of beneficiary that relied on data from the March Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). Most importantly, the benefit classification scheme based on SIPP data appears to provide reasonably reliable distinctions between retired-worker and widow benefits for widowed women and permits the identification of retired-worker benefits for those women dually entitled to retired-worker and spouse benefits. In addition, the distinction between disabled- and retired-worker benefits for recipients aged 62-64 appears to be reasonably reliable, and for women under age 65, the classification procedure distinguishes between disabled-worker benefits on the one hand and widow and widowed mother benefits on the other. Finally, SIPP procedures for identifying minor child beneficiaries yield markedly better estimates than those available from the Current Population Survey. These improvements in the SIPP context are due entirely to the presence of information not collected in the CPS. The enhancement of the SIPP data set in turn resulted directly from an assessment of earlier work carried out by Projector and Bretz in the CPS context and on extensive research into the nature of Social Security reporting errors in the CPS. The superiority of the SIPP data set is linked principally to the presence of three pieces of information: the Medicare BIC, the direct question on reasons for benefit receipt asked of persons under age 65, and the direct measurement of recipiency and amount of benefits for minor children. Other items of some import include self-reported work disability, retirement status (ever retired from a job), previous marital status for currently married women, age first prevented from working due to a health condition, and Supplemental Security Income misreporting items.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Political-economic aspects of public employment

Abstract. An examination of public employment and expenditure data for 17 OECD countries for the period 1963–1983 reveals decelerating growth in public employment after 1970, whereas expenditure growth rates have been accelerating. Two contrary tendencies in public sector employment since the early 1970s are apparent: a general decline in goods and market services, and a significant increase in communal and social services. Comparative empirical analysis, using a pooled cross section-time series technique, confirms the important contribution of increasing wealth to public employment growth. Similarly, a strong societal position for organised labour and increasing unemployment rates contribute to public employment growth, thereby suggesting the presence of a discretionary stabilization policy. Contrary to expectations, however, increased trade dependence exerts a negative impact. With regard to the relationship between expenditure and employment, a general increase in the employment creation efficiency of spending can be discerned. Empirical estimates again suggest that the importance of labour in political-economic decision-making has intensified the employment creation effect of public spending.     

Shirking and sorting in a political market with finite-lived politicians

This paper analyzes principal-agent slack in the context of a political market composed of voters, challengers, and incumbents. The introduction of a last period (via finite-livedness) in combination with voters' imperfect information about politicians' preferences causes time-varying shirking behavior on the part of politicians. Political markets eventually sort out those politicians with significantly deviant policy preferences, potentially providing a solution to the last period problem and enabling politicians to make credible commitments. In the extreme, sorting can insure that it is not worthwhile for potential shirkers to run for office. A systematic relationship between political shirking and number of terms in office may exist, and depends on how quickly sorting takes place. We show that evidence of little if any shirking is quite consistent with politicians having diverse and strongly held policy preferences. In addition, if sorting is a significant feature of political markets, cross-sectional studies will tend to oversample little- and non-shirking politicians compared to longitudinal studies. Reinterpretations of existing empirical work are also discussed.We wish to thank John Bond, Donald Deere, Gertrud Fremling, Tim Gronberg, Michael Munger, Russell Roberts, and the participants of workshops at Dartmouth College, Texas A&M University, University of Houston, University of Texas, Yale Law School, and the 1987 Public Choice Meetings for valuable discussions on earlier drafts of this paper. An earlier version of this paper was issued as working paper E-87-34 by the Hoover Institution. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Sentencing Commission nor those of any of its Commissioners. Any remaining errors are of course our own.     

On the optimal retaliation against terrorists: The paid-rider option

We examine whether nations, faced with the threat of terrorism, will be motivated to engage in the efficient amount of retaliation against terrorists. We demonstrate that the problem confronting the efforts of nations to achieve an optimal retaliation against terrorists is understated by the traditional free-rider analysis. In particular, nations have the option of actually selling or reducing the public good of retaliation, provided through the efforts of others, by offering safe havens to terrorists in return for the terrorists' pledge to attack elsewhere. This paid-rider behavior is also shown to apply to other public good scenarios.The authors gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments of Gordon Tullock on an earlier draft. Sole responsibility for the paper's content rests with the authors. Todd Sandler's research was supported by a Science and Humanities Research Institute Summer Grant at Iowa State University.     

The sporting life: Athletic activities during early adolescence

The decline in sports participation that begins in early adolescence has been well documented, and there has been considerable controversy regarding the reasons for this attrition. The present study addressed the attrition process by focusing on the subjective experience of sports as a function of grade, gender, and sport context. Following the procedures of the Experience Sampling Method, 401 5th–9th-grade boys and girls carried electronic pagers, similar to those worn by doctors, for one week, and filled out self-report forms on their activities and subjective states in response to signals received at random times. Older respondents spent less time in sports than their younger peers. This age difference was due primarily to a decline in informal sports participation, with less pronounced attrition from organized sports. Our findings suggest that the reasons for attrition from sport may be context specific. While informal sports were experienced more positively than gym class or organized sports, perceptions of skill were lowest during informal sports and declined with age. It seems youngsters stop participating in organized sports because these activities are less enjoyable to them, while attrition from informal sports is more performance based. Boys spent more time in sports than girls, and this difference was based primarily upon significant gender differences in informal sports participation. In spite of their differential rates of participation, boys and girls reported similar levels of affect, arousal, and skill during sports.This research was supported by NIMH grant number MH38324, Stress in Daily Life During Early Adolescence, awarded to Reed Larson, and was carried out while the first author was a Dissertation Fellow in the Department of Psychology at Loyola University of Chicago.Received Ph.D. in psychology from Loyola University of Chicago. Current research interests include athletic, involvement during early adolescence, body image, and adolescent mental health.Current research interests are stress and coping during early adolescence, and the adaptive use of leisure time.Received Ph.D. from the Committee on Human Development at the University of Chicago. Current research interests include pubertal development, the precursors of eating disorders, and the effects of maternal employment of young adolescents.     

Norman Wells impact funding: boon or bust?

Abstract: The Norman Wells project involved a tenfold expansion of the Norman Wells oilfield and construction of a 324-mm (12-inch) pipeline extending 870 kilometres up the Mackenzie Valley to northern Alberta. Completed in May 1985 after years of controversy, Norman Wells expansion was the first of several large hydrocarbon production and transportation projects likely to be completed in the Mackenzie Valley by the end of the century. Because of a highly innovative approach to project management, Norman Wells has been heralded as a model for future northern development projects. Construction was delayed seventeen months from the time of project approval in part to permit effective planning and the use of “special measures” during the construction phase. A major component of these special measures was the unique Norman Wells impact funding program set up to help manage negative effects and enable native involvement in the project. This paper assesses the planning and administration of two socioeconomic components of the impact funding program, using seven criteria drawn from the literature on socioeconomic monitoring and management. The subject programs failed to satisfy all but one criterion. Indeed, the administrative mechanisms used proved to be an serious impediment to effective socioeconomic impact management. This failure was rooted both in the politics of the impact funding package itself and in the historical modus operandi of the federal government, particularly the Department of Indian Affairs and Northern Development, in the north. Sommaire: Le project Norman Wells comprenait l'expansion en 10 volets du champ pétrolifère du même nom et la construction d'un oléoduc de 324 mm de diamètre, s'étendant sur 870 kilomètres le long de la vallée Mackenzie jusqu'au nord de 1'Alberta. Ce projet, qui a été terminé en mai 1985 après des années de polémique, était le premier de plusieurs grands projets dans le secteur de la production et de l'acheminement des hydrocarbures à avoir toutes les chances d'être fini dans la valée du Mackenzie avant la fin du siècle. En raison de la façon tout à fait nouvelle dont a été abordée sa gestion, on a dit du projet Norman Wells qu'il servirait à l'avenir de modèle aux projets de développement dans le Nord. La construction n'a débuté que 17 mois après que le projet a été approuvé en partie . pour permettre une planification efficace de façon que des mesures spéciales. soient appliquées pendant la construction. (mainc 1981:4). Un des éléments importants des mesures spéciales était le programme de financement à fort impact Norman Wells, tout à fait unique, mis sur pied dans le but de gérer les effets négatifs et de permettre aux autochtones de participer au projet. Dans cet article, on évalue la planification et l'administration de deux éléments socio-économiques du programme de financement à fort impact en s'appuyant sur sept normes tirées des documents scientifiques portant sur la surveillance et la gestion dans le domaine socio-économique. Les programmes ont échoué dans tous les domaines, sauf un. En effet, les mécanismes administratifs auxquels on a eu recours ont été un sérieux handicap pour gérer le projet de façon efficace d'un point de vue socio-économique. Cet échec plonge ses racines à la fois dans la politique qui sous-tendait le programme de financement à fort impact et dans le modus operandi de toujours du gouvernement fédéral dans le Nord, en particulier celui du mainc.