Dealignment, spatial polarisation and economic voting

Abstract. Estimates of voting by occupational class are provided for each of 22 regions in the UK for every general election since 1964. These are analysed, using a log-linear modelling strategy, to identify the changing degree of class dealignment and spatial polarisation within the British electorate over the period. The growing regional variability is consistent with expectations regarding the increasing volume of economic voting and the pattern of uneven development in the country: the north-south and urban-rural divides have both widened.     

Exploring uniformity and variability in local electoral outcomes: Some evidence from English local elections 1985–1991

A detailed analysis of English local elections between 1985 and 1991 seems to support the propositions that a proportion of electors hold contradictory local and national voting preferences at one and the same time; and that there is significant variation in party performance both between and within local authorities. The paper concludes that the stimuli to which electors respond in local elections are often those most relevant to the ‘context’ in which their vote is cast. If partisan dealignment has led to a greater willingness on the part of the electorate to regard voting as a matter of ‘horses for courses’, there may not only be a further fragmentation in the results of elections of all kinds but the parties may experience different degrees of success depending on the nature of the contest.     

The (non) equivalence theorem when there are matching grants as well as lump sum grants

In developing their influential equivalence theorem Bradford and Oates (1971) implicitly assume that there is a lump sum grant only. This paper explores whether the equivalence result continues to hold when the lump sum grant is part of a program of grants-in-aid which includes a matching grant. It is shown that the equivalence results as stated by Bradford and Oates does not hold in these more general circumstances; however, a much weaker equivalence result does hold. This finding is important because there has been a tendency in the empirical literature to assume that the equivalence result holds under quite general circumstances. It is also shown here that the combined use of lump sum and matching grants can produce a reverse flypaper effect.     

Eliminatorische ethnische Säuberungen: Eine makrosoziologische Erklärung

Der vorliegende Aufsatz entwickelt eine makrosoziologische Strategie zur Erklärung eliminatiorischer ethnischer Säuberungen. In einem ersten Schritt wird gezeigt, dass Ansätze, die den Staat oder eine schwache Zivilgesellschaft als zentralen Erklärungsfaktor heranziehen, der historischen Vielfalt und Komplexität der zu erklärenden Ereignisse nicht gerecht werden. Vielmehr ist eine präzise Analyse politischer Akteure und Akteurskonstellationen erforderlich. In einem zweiten Schritt wird in der Form einer Typologie das theoretische Möglichkeitsfeld politischer Konstellationen ethnischer Gruppen abgesteckt, wobei Multikulturalismus und Genozid die Extrempole der Typologie markieren. Im dritten und umfangreichsten Teil des Aufsatzes wird schließlich in Form einer fünfstufigen weltgeschichtlichen Periodisierung eine historisch-vergleichende Strategie zur Erklärung ethnischer Säuberungsprozesse skizziert. Dabei wird deutlich, wie die Faktoren Sprache, Religion und Territorialität (Provinz) bei der politischen Formierung konkreter ethnischer Akteurskonstellationen so zusammenwirken, dass das gesamte zuvor entwickelte typisierende Möglichkeitsfeld historisch abgedeckt wird.