DETERRENCE,CRIMINAL OPPORTUNITIES,AND POLICE

In this article, we join three distinct literatures on crime control—the deterrence literature, the policing literature as it relates to crime control, and the environmental and opportunity perspectives literature. Based on empirical findings and theory from these literatures, we pose a mathematical model of the distribution of criminal opportunities and offender decision making on which of those opportunities to victimize. Criminal opportunities are characterized in terms of the risk of apprehension that attends their victimization. In developing this model, our primary focus is on how police might affect the distribution of criminal opportunities that are attractive to would‐be offenders. The theoretical model we pose, however, is generalizable to explain how changes in other relevant target characteristics, such as potential gain, could affect target attractiveness. We demonstrate that the model has important implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of police deployment strategies such as hot spots policing, random patrol, and problem‐oriented policing. The theoretical structure also makes clear why the clearance rate is a fundamentally flawed metric of police performance. Future research directions suggested by the theoretical model are discussed.     

DIFFUSION OF FRAUD: INTERMEDIATE ECONOMIC CRIME AND INVESTOR DYNAMICS*

Criminologists have studied the spread of fraudulent practices and techniques among perpetrators. This article attempts to contribute to the field by looking at the other side of diffusion, examining the spread of fraud among investors in a case of “intermediate fraud.” Intermediate fraud occurs when fraudulent acts are committed in or by a legitimate business. Using comprehensive archival, interview, and survey data, we analyze a business that exhibited a two‐stage pattern of intermediate fraud: It was created and operated as a legitimate business in the first stage, and then economic crimes were increasingly committed in the second stage. We use diffusion theory to guide our analysis, investigating the ways in which five factors—product attributes, buyer attributes and behavior, seller attributes and behavior, structure of the social network, and method of propagation—influence the adoption and diffusion of investments in oil and gas wells among a population of investors. The case of intermediate fraud is interesting because the factors that contributed to the success of the business in its legitimate stage are the same factors that contributed to the success of the fraud in its illegitimate stage.     

Can Welfare States Grow in Leaps and Bounds? Non-Incremental Policymaking in the Netherlands

The rapid expansion of the Dutch welfare state in the 1960s is described as an example of non-incremental policy growth. The reasons for this include: the largeness of policy change; the willingness of policymakers to consider new programs that marked dramatic departures from older programs, the commitment of policymakers to the goal of universalizing programs rather than introducing satisfycing measures; and the disruption of the traditional mode of corporatist representation in policymaking. The possibilities for an equally rapid dismantling of the welfare state are discussed.     

Justification and Application of Norms*

Abstract According to the author there is no doubt that one has to distinguish between the justification and the application of norms. Problems are seen only to arise if one asks what exactly the distinction is and which consequences have to be drawn from it. Recently, Klaus Günther, in particular, has searched for this distinction and connected it with far-reaching conclusions concerning the theory of norms, arguments, and morals. His theses are the object of the author's considerations.     

Export Growth and Development to Poor Rural Regions: a Meso-Scale Analysis of the Upper Limari

Abstract — The aim of this article is to explore the recent social and economic evolution of a rural region that was formerly one of the poorest in Chile but has been transformed by a productive specialisation in table grapes for export markets. The region is that of the Upper Limari in Chile's semi-arid Norte Chico. The analysis focuses on changes in four interrelated variables: productive investments; land markets; labour markets; and population distribution. Rapid growth in investment, the emergence of dynamic land markets, dramatic increases in labour productivity have transformed the agricultural sector. Small-scale farming has survived poorly due to lack of capital, technical problems and lack of bargaining power with the international fruit companies. The large-scale farmers have enjoyed better conditions and a reconcentration of land has occurred. However, the emergence of new productive activities in an area where labour alternatives have been historically scarce has provided new sources of income. Population is increasing in rural settlements linked to irrigated agroexportation and quality of life indicators have improved. Rural depopulation is not a feature of the region as a whole.