Evaluation of the (hu)MANid program for sex and ancestry estimation in a diverse,contemporary CT scan-based sample

Human remains from forensic and bioarcheological contexts are often fragmentary, requiring methods for estimating a forensic profile that are based upon limited skeletal features. In 2017, Berg and Keryhercz created an online application, (hu)MANid, that provides sex and ancestry estimation from mandibular morphoscopic traits and linear measurements. In this study, we examine the utility of the (hu)MANid application in a diverse, urban US adult sample (aged 20–45; n = 143) derived from computed tomography (CT) scans. We secondarily conduct a preliminary analysis of the program's utility in a sample of adolescents (aged 15–17; n = 40). Six morphoscopic, and eleven morphometric traits were recorded as directed by the literature associated with the (hu)MANid program. Percent correct classification and posterior predictive values were calculated for the sex and ancestry estimations output by the program; chi-squared tests were employed to compare self-reported and predicted ancestry. In the adult sample, sex was accurately predicted for 75.52% of the sample. Ancestry prediction, however, was less favorable ranging from 19.3% to 50% correct. For the adolescent sample, correct sex estimation (45%) did not surpass what could occur by chance alone, though ancestry prediction fared better than in the larger adult sample (percent correct prediction overall average: 47.5%, range 35.71%–71.43%). The (hu)MANid application shows utility for use with CT scan-derived adult samples for sex estimation, but caution is warranted for ancestry estimation and use with samples that may not have reached full adult maturity.     

Paths for improving non-profit impact on society: lessons from government–non-profit relationships in Brazil

How can non-profit organisations achieve their intended impact on society? This article analyses factors that influence non-profit action in two key situations: when these organisations work autonomously from the government, and when they work in collaboration with the government. Based on interviews with experienced non-profit leaders in Brazil, the article presents typical paths for success and common reasons for failure in achieving non-profits’ intended outcomes. Organisational, relational and contextual factors influence non-profit action, leading to different outcomes. Brazilian non-profits provide lessons for non-profit action in developing countries contexts that experience cycles of political and economic instability.     

Prime ministers in the age of austerity: an increase in the personalisation of voting behaviour

This article tests the personalisation thesis in Portugal (2002–2015), as well as its causes, focusing on changes in the level of party identification and perceptions of the economy. Portugal is an interesting example given its recent experience of a harsh economic crisis, as well as a decline in party identification. Results confirm a growing exogenous impact of leader evaluations on voting over the period but not in a linear fashion. During the crisis, the growing trend of leader effects for the incumbent party continues for those voters who have a positive perception of the economy. Conversely, for the main opposition party, leader effects are greater for those who perceive the economy as being worse. Thus the crisis operates as a catalyst for leader effects. The impact of leaders is also greater among the de-aligned, the numbers of which rise considerably during the period under analysis. It is voters with no party identification, who use leaders as proxies to a greater extent. These conclusions may extend to further studies on leader effects in Western democracies and help to shed light on the process through which leaders are becoming more relevant in voting decisions.     

From Middle Powers to Entrepreneurial Powers in World Politics: Brazil's Successes and Failures in International Crises

This article uses the concept of entrepreneurial powers to discuss how and under what circumstances Brazil successfully accomplishes its goals in international crises. The concept of entrepreneurial power focuses on systematic evidence of middle‐power behavior and its relation to foreign policy tools. Brazil resorts to three agency‐based foreign policy tools that are the substance of its entrepreneurial power. These instruments are always mediated by a structural condition, the dominant power pivotal position in the crisis. This study applies qualitative comparative analysis methodology to 32 international crises since the early 1990s in which Brazil played a role. It finds that for regional crises, the use of only one agency‐based tool is sufficient for success, regardless of the dominant power position; and for global crises, the use of only one agency‐based tool is a necessary and sufficient condition for Brazil to accomplish its goals, despite the dominant power position on the issue.     

Conformity and Individuals’ Response to Information About Aggregate Turnout

Political Behavior - How do voters react to information about aggregate turnout? Do high turnout levels mobilize or discourage citizens to vote? We argue that it depends on individuals’...     

Comparative Assessment of a Novel Photo‐Anthropometric Landmark‐Positioning Approach for the Analysis of Facial Structures on Two‐Dimensional Images

Positioning landmarks in facial photo‐anthropometry (FPA) applications remains today a highly variable procedure, as traditional cephalometric definitions are used as guidelines. Herein, a novel landmark‐positioning approach, specifically adapted for FPA applications, is introduced and, in particular, assessed against the conventional cephalometric definitions for the analysis of 16 landmarks on ten frontal images by two groups of examiners (with and without professional knowledge of anatomy). Results showed that positioning reproducibility was significantly better using the novel method. Indeed, in contrast to the classic approach, very low landmark dispersions were observed for both groups of examiners, which were usually below the strictest clinical standards (i.e., 0.575 mm). Furthermore, the comparison between the two groups of examiners highlighted higher dispersion consistencies, which supported a higher robustness. Thus, the use of an adapted landmark‐positioning approach proved to be highly advantageous in FPA analysis and future work in this field should consider adopting similar methodologies.     

Leadership in multiple perpetrator stranger rape

Sexual offences by multiple perpetrators are more violent and involve more severe forms of sexual violation than those perpetrated by a lone offender. Often a clear leader exists within these groups. Questions have been raised as to the relative risk of reoffending and the potentially differing criminogenic needs of leaders and followers. However, a recent study comparing leaders and followers in juvenile multiple perpetrator rapes (t'Hart-Kerkhoffs et al., 2011) failed to find some of the expected differences. It was proposed that this might be due, in part, to the way leaders and followers were classified in the study. Before work can progress in this area, it is important to devise reliable and valid means of identifying leaders and followers in multiple perpetrator rape. This article reports on a study which investigated the utility of two different methods of identifying leadership. The Scale of Influence (Porter & Alison, 2001) was applied to a sample of 256 offenders responsible for 95 multiple perpetrator rapes from the United Kingdom. Following this, the relative number of directives uttered by offenders was used to designate leadership. In 66% of the offences sampled, a leader was designated using the number of directives uttered compared with 80% when using the Scale of Influence. When combining both measures to form a composite measure of leadership, this percentage increased to 89%. Classifications of offenders as leaders, followers, and neither, according to the Scale of Influence, the count of directives, and the composite measure, were compared with classifications made by a practitioner to assess their concordance. The composite measure showed the greatest agreement with practitioner opinion. These findings suggest that the Scale of Influence could be developed to take account of other ways that leadership is displayed during multiple perpetrator rapes.     

Allelic frequencies and statistical data obtained from 48 AIM INDEL loci in an admixed population from the Brazilian Amazon

Allelic frequencies of 48 informative insert-delete (INDEL) loci were obtained from a sample set of 130 unrelated individuals living in Macapá, a city located in the northern Amazon region, in Brazil. The values of heterozygosity (H), polymorphic information content (PIC), power of discrimination (PD), power of exclusion (PE), matching probability (MP) and typical paternity index (TPI) were calculated and showed the forensic efficiency of these genetic markers. Based on the allele frequency obtained for the population of Macapá, we estimated an interethnic admixture for the three parental groups (European, Native American and African) of, respectively, 50%, 21% and 29%. Comparing these allele frequencies with those of other Brazilian populations and the parental populations, statistically significant distances were found. The interpopulation genetic distance (F_ST coefficients) to the present database ranged from F_ST = 0.0431 (p < 0.00001) between Macapá and Belém to F_ST = 0.266 (p < 0.00001) between Macapá and the Native American group.     

The Portuguese Cortes during the reign of Ferdinand I (1367–83): the context of the Hundred Years War (1337–1453)

This article focuses on the study of the Cortes that convened during the reign of King Ferdinand I (1367–83), which took place in the context of the wars experienced in Europe, in the Iberian peninsula and in Portugal. First, it is shown how the Hundred Years War impacted on the Iberian peninsula from the moment when Henry of Trastámara, with the support of France, opposed the rule of his half-brother, Peter of Castile. At the same time, the Portuguese King Ferdinand I presented himself as a candidate to the Castilian throne, with the support of England. The three Fernandine Wars that took place in 1369–71, 1372–73 and 1381–82 are then briefly described. Next, this article examines the eight Cortes that met during the reign of Ferdinand I, showing how they were all summoned because of the war. Finally, this article analyses the appeals made by the municipalities in the Cortes of Lisbon of 1371, the Cortes of Oporto of 1372 and the Cortes of Leiria of 1372, with special attention given to the many military, economic, social, administrative and fiscal appeals and requests arising from the ills of war. Hence, it is concluded that the Cortes were unable to solve many of these problems, even though they contributed to restraining certain abuses. They were mostly an opportunity for dialogue between the king and the commoners, as well as a mitigating factor of greater tension and social conflict in this internal and external state of war. Within the context of war, the strength of the Cortes as a representative institution was reinforced, as well as the power and representativeness of the procurators of the commoners within the Cortes.