Measuring the Distribution of Crime and Its Concentration

Objectives

Generally speaking, crime is, fortunately, a rare event. As far as modelling is concerned, this sparsity of data means that traditional measures to quantify concentration are not appropriate when applied to crime suffered by a population. Our objective is to develop a new technique to measure the concentration of crime which takes into account its low frequency of occurrence and its high degree of concentration in such a way that this measure is comparable over time and over different populations.

Methods

This article derives an estimate of the distribution of crime suffered by a population based on a mixture model and then evaluates a new and standardised measurement of the concentration of the rates of suffering a crime based on that distribution.

Results

The new measure is successfully applied to the incidence of robbery of a person in Mexico and is able to correctly quantify the concentration crime in such a way that is comparable between different regions and can be tracked over different time periods.

Conclusions

The risk of suffering a crime is not uniformly distributed across a population. There are certain groups which are statistically immune to suffering crime but there are also groups which suffer chronic victimisation. This measure improves our understanding of how patterns of crime can be quantified allowing us to determine if a prevention policy results in a crime reduction rather than target displacement. The method may have applications beyond crime science.

     

The role of valuation and bargaining in optimising transboundary watercourse treaty regimes

In the face of water scarcity, growing water demands, population increase, ecosystem degradation, or climate change, transboundary watercourse states inevitably have to make difficult decisions on how finite quantities of water are distributed. Such waters, and their associated ecosystem services, offer multiple benefits. Valuation and bargaining can play a key role in the sharing of these ecosystems services and their associated benefits across sovereign borders. Ecosystem services in transboundary watercourses essentially constitute a portfolio of assets. While challenging, their commodification, which creates property rights, supports trading. Such trading offers a means by which to resolve conflicts over competing uses and allows states to optimise their ‘portfolios’. However, despite this potential, adoption of appropriate treaty frameworks that might facilitate a market-based approach to the discovery and allocation of water-related ecosystem services at the transboundary level remains both a challenge and a topic worthy of further study. Drawing upon concepts in law and economics, this paper therefore seeks to advance the study of how treaty frameworks might be developed in a way that supports such a market-based approach to ecosystem services and transboundary waters.     

Histological Determination of the Human Origin of Bone Fragments

Abstract:  A frequently encountered task in the forensic scenario is verification of the human origin of severely degraded fragments of bone. In these cases histological methods which consider osteon size and morphology can prove to be useful. The authors in the present study verify the applicability of published algorithms to flat and subadult bones from human, dog, cat, cow, rabbit, sheep, pig, chicken, quail, and turkey samples. Metric analysis was performed on 2031 Haversian canals. Analyses carried out on human samples confirmed a success rate of around 70% on long adult bones; however the percentage of wrong answers was particularly high in the case of newborns and older subadults as well as on flat bones in general. Results therefore suggest that such regression equations should be limited only to bone fragments from long adult bones.     

Suicides in the young people of Geneva, Switzerland, from 1993 to 2002

Suicides in Geneva in those less than 25 years old, from 1993 to 2002, were reviewed. Scenes investigations, autopsy findings, toxicology results, and psychiatric history (when available) were examined. There were 65 cases. The average annual suicide rate was 11/100,000. Seventy-seven percent were male, and 23% were female. The youngest was 12 years old and most of the victims were 18 years old and over (89%). For men, the use of firearms was the most common method (38%), followed by fall from height (16%) and drowning (10%). For women, fall from height was the most frequent (40%), followed by firearms and medication overdoses (20% each), hanging (13%), and drowning (7%). Toxicological analysis was performed in 41% of the cases and showed that alcohol was present in 26% and other drugs in 67% of these cases. The most common drugs present were benzodiazepines, cannabis, and cocaine.     

FEAR OF CRIME AND VICTIMIZATION AMONG THE ELDERLY IN DIFFERENT TYPES OF COMMUNITIES*

The central issue examined here is the effect that community setting, relative to other factors, has on victimization and fear of crime among the elderly. Findings are from 1,410 in-home interviews in two retirement communities (age homogeneous) and two age-heterogeneous communities. Victimization of elderly is low in all communities, and although nearly half of the respondents have some fear of crime, the percentage reporting great fear of crime is low. Victimization and fear of crime are only weakly related to one another, and the regression model for each does not account for much variance. But both are significantly related to the type of community, and fear of crime is also related to other variables. The greater the age density of the community (greater concentration of elderly), the less crime and less fear of crime. Living arrangements, sociodemographic variables, and health status of the elderly as indicators of personal vulnerability to crime are not related to victimization, but are related to fear of crime, and effects of community setting on fear of crime are reduced when these other variables are taken into account. Suggestions for other, unmeasured, sources of variations and implications for future research are presented.     

Some Scenarios for Russian Oil Exports up to 2020

This article analyses the potential for Russian oil export growth through the next decade. It concludes that supply for exports will continue to grow, albeit moderately. The greater or lesser intensity of that growth will depend on the evolution of both production and internal consumption, and especially on the reaction by investors to sector changes promoted by government energy policy. From this analysis, we find three likely scenarios for Russian oil exports. The most positive envisages it will be possible to diversify exports while the most negative suggests that Russia will have scant opportunity to develop an export diversification strategy.