US security strategy in Asia and the prospects for an Asian regional security regime

The US–Japan alliance serves as the cornerstone of US security strategy in East Asia. The Bush administration remains supportive of efforts by Japan to become a more “normal” nation and is expected, during its second term, to continue to encourage Tokyo to play a more active role in regional security (while refraining from open pressure or from meddling in the debate over constitutional revision). The Pentagon's ongoing Global Force Review will likely result in some modest adjustments in the US military footprint in Japan, but with no lessening of Washington's overall commitment or ability to respond to regional crises. Meanwhile, Washington will continue to support institutionalized multilateral mechanisms (including sub-regional efforts that do not include the US) as useful means to promote regional security and coordinate counter-terrorism efforts, while relying on ad hoc coalitions (or unilateral actions if necessary) to address specific threats to its own security or to the security of its allies.     

Dynamic risk and protective factors

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the literature regarding the identification and measurement of risk factors considered imminent precipitants of subsequent criminal conduct (i.e. dynamic risk factors). This paper also frames these risk factors against the so-called protective factors that are presumed to mitigate risk. Commonality among recent dynamic risk and protective measures reflects general agreement regarding viable candidate variables. Empirical studies suggest such factors yield incremental predictive validity and should inform case-formulaic understanding of criminal conduct and pathways to desistance, although this is not common practice. As well, definitional and measurement considerations are not well advanced and speak to the need for further conceptual clarity.     

The Philadelphia predictive policing experiment

Journal of Experimental Criminology - This place-based, randomized experiment explored the impact of different patrol strategies on violent and property crime in microscale predicted crime areas....     

Greening an international organization: UNIDO’s strategic responses

The United Nations Industrial Development Organization’s (UNIDO) portfolio of technical cooperation projects changed radically between 1992 and 2004. In 1992, industrial-development-related projects constituted 98% of the portfolio in monetary terms, and environment-related projects 2% while, in 2004, the former constituted 43% and the latter 57%. However, the larger share of the environment-related projects in 2004 was only marginally, if at all, linked to UNIDO’s industrial development agenda. A compelling explanation for this radical change in the organization’s technical cooperation portfolio is provided by a model of strategic choice that draws on resource dependency and institutional approaches and that allows for staff strategic actions. Two factors, UNIDO’s financial and confidence crisis in the 1990s and an organizational culture wedded to industrial development, shaped UNIDO’s strategic responses, which, for the most part, did not integrate environmental concerns into industrial development projects and programs as instructed by its principal governing body.

Thinking about the future in criminal justice administration: Trends and implications

This paper utilizes the technology of Futures Research to discuss issues that may confront the criminal justice system in the year 2000. Conceptually, the criminal justice agencies are viewed as a social system which is open to external influence both in terms of organizational design and operation. The specific model of criminal justice agencies is based on the work of Lyman Porter and recognizes three primary factors: 1) contextual factors; 2) structural factors; and 3) behavioral consequences. The specific administrative issues discussed are derived from a series of long term social trends identified by futurist Herman Kahn of the Hudson Institute.     

THE TASMANIAN PUBLIC SERVICE AND THE FUTURE

Abstract: State governments in Australia have been regarded essentially as service deliverers, with the result that the specialist heads of public organizations, although technically competent, have rarely questioned the need for their activities. Nor does the argument that such questioning is the responsibility of the politician take account of the inertia of the existing system; an analysis of the activities which the Tasmanian government has undertaken over the past six years—including those of statutory authorities—shows a fair degree of stability. Thus we should consider building into the State's existing organizational arrangements some means of evaluating existing programs and new proposals. Such policy analysis should widen the narrow focus of the advice currently offered by public servants. Although there have been some moves in this direction in Tasmania (particularly in the Premier's Department), it has not been reflected in the structures of the public service generally. A survey of 22 government departments showed that only eight had officers concerned with evaluatory planning, and only three departments were engaged in innovative and initiatory planning. Other directions in which Tasmania's public organizations could move with benefit include an increase in lateral recruitment; breaking down the rigidity of the promotion appeals and classification systems; introducing flexible management and budgeting procedures throughout the service as a whole; and continually reviewing the structure and functions of public organizations. The questions that have been raised by recent inquiries into State and Federal government administration, namely coordination, efficiency, economy, effectiveness, decentralization and participation, have not stressed sufficiently the key issue for the public services of the 1980s, which is the nature of the relationship between the politician, the public service and the community.