The campaign dynamics of economic voting

This paper considers the relationship between election campaigns and the impact of economic evaluations on vote choice. The motivation is the standard expectation that the campaign generally serves to amplify the significance of economic considerations in the voter's calculus—to focus his/her attention on this “fundamental” element of the electoral decision. Drawing on survey data from ten national elections across four countries (Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States) and applying both parametric and semi-parametric statistical techniques, the paper finds no support for this proposition. The paper reflects on the significance of this conclusion for work on political learning during election campaigns, the literature on economic voting, and the study of electoral behaviour more generally.     

Community-level impacts of temperature on urban street robbery

Purpose

Conduct the first empirical intra-urban examination of community-level connections between street robbery and temperature. Examine whether community socioeconomic status (SES) and crime-relevant land uses strengthen or weaken the temperature impact. A theoretical framework relying on routine activity theory, crime pattern theory, and resident-based control dynamics organized predictions.

Data and methods

For Philadelphia census tracts (n = 381), monthly street robbery counts and temperature data for 36 consecutive months were combined with census and land use data, and analyzed with multilevel models.

Results

Community robbery counts were higher when temperatures were higher, and in lower SES communities. In support of previous work with property crime, but in contrast to previous work with assault, the effects of temperature were stronger in higher SES communities. In support of the integrated model, commercial land use prevalence and subway stations were associated with heightened temperature impacts on robbery.

Conclusions

Community-level fixed and random effects of temperature on urban robbery counts persist when controlling for land use and community structure; further, the random effects depend in part on both. There are implications for understanding indigenous guardianship or informal resident-based place management dynamics, and for planning seasonal police deployments.     

Review article: Realising realism's role in us policy towards Europe

Adam Bronstone, European Union ‐ United States Security Relations. Transatlantic Tensions and the Theory of International Relations. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1997. Pp.viii + 282, biblio., index. £45. ISBN 0–333–69136–9.

Robert L. Hutchings, American Diplomacy and the End of the Cold War. An Insider's Account of US Policy in Europe, 1989–1992. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997. Pp.xx + 456, illus., biblio., index. £33. ISBN 0–8018–5620–5.

Thomas Risse‐Kappen, Cooperation Among Democracies. The European Influence on US Foreign Policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press 1995. Pp.x + 250, biblio., index. £30.50. ISBN 0–6910–3644–6.     

Multiple Self‐Inflicted Stab Wounds to Neck,Chest and Abdomen as a Unique Manner of Suicide

Abstract: This is a case report of a 30‐year‐old man found dead in his flat lying on the floor with multiple stab wounds over the body, surrounded by an extensive volume of blood. Examination of the scene of death showed a secure flat, locked from inside. A blood‐stained knife was present close to the body and two unstained notes left on the sofa at the locus. A small plastic bag containing white powder (which following toxicological examinations appeared to be cocaine) and an almost full bottle of beer were present on a table. Autopsy revealed more than 40 stab wounds to neck, chest, and abdomen arranged in isolated groups within which the wounds showed similar directions and had a transverse orientation. Together with hesitation marks located on the neck and wrists these characteristics allowed to interpret this case as a suicide.     

William Friedman's Bletchley park diary: A different view

‘William Friedman's Bletchley Park Diary’ (INS 20/4 (2005) pp. 654–69) stated that Friedman, with Col. Alfred McCormack and Lt.-Col. Telford Taylor (US Army Special Branch), visited Bletchley Park in mid-1943 to negotiate with the British Government Code and Cypher School on how the Travis–Strong Agreement of May 1943 on Sigint cooperation should be implemented. This article shows that they had no substantive negotiating powers, and that they were essentially on a fact-finding mission.