Early onset offending and later violent and gun outcomes in a contemporary youth cohort

Currently there is great concern regarding the high homicide rate and persistent weapon carrying among urban youth. Criminal career research has offered criminology an opportunity to understand offending as a process that has a beginning, middle, and end. Using that framework, the current study examined a contemporary cohort of arrestees and estimated the extent to which age of first arrest predicts future violent and gun offending. Net of demographic and offending variables, the results indicated that early onset was a significant predictor of serious violent offenses and weapon involvement. Theoretical and policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

STATEWIDE INITIATIVES TO ENCOURAGE ALTERNATIVE DISPUTE RESOLUTION AND ENHANCE COLLABORATIVE APPROACHES TO RESOLVING FAMILY ISSUES

Over the past 27 years, since the concept of the multidoor courthouse was first introduced, methods for resolving family issues have increasingly focused on less adversarial and more collaborative approaches. Infrastructures have developed in a variety of ways in different states to initiate, support, and promote these approaches, and pilot projects have provided an invaluable avenue for testing and implementing changes. This article will describe some of the current statewide initiatives to develop infrastructure and implement change through creative pilot projects and will propose strategies to sustain these changes.     

The Dynamics of Partisan Conflict on Congressional Approval

Partisan divisions in American politics have been increasing since the 1970s following a period where scholars thought parties were in decline. This polarization is observed most frequently within the debates and deliberation across issues within Congress. Given that most studies of public opinion place the behavior of elites at the center of public attitudes, surprisingly little research examines the effect of partisan conflict on the mass public. This research examines quarterly congressional approval data from 1974 to 2000 to determine the consequences, if any, of party conflict on the dynamics of congressional approval. The findings indicate that over-time changes in partisan conflict within Congress have a direct and lasting effect on how citizens think about Congress.     

Are counter-terrorism strategies effective? The results of the Campbell systematic review on counter-terrorism evaluation research

The events of September 11th have led to massive increases in personal, commercial, and governmental expenditures on anti-terrorism strategies, as well as a proliferation of programs designed to fight terrorism. These increases in spending and program development have focused attention on the most significant and central policy question related to these interventions: Are these programs effective? To explore this question, this study reports the results of a Campbell Collaboration systematic review on evaluation research of counter-terrorism strategies. Not only did we discover an almost complete absence of evaluation research on counter-terrorism interventions, but from those evaluations that we could find, it appears that some interventions either did not achieve the outcomes sought or sometimes increased the likelihood of terrorism occurring. The findings dramatically emphasize the need for government leaders, policy makers, researchers, and funding agencies to support both outcome evaluations of these programs as well as efforts to develop an infrastructure to foster counter-terrorism evaluation research.     

“Where Liberty Reigns and God is Supreme”: The Christian Right and the Tea Party Movement

In this article we argue that the tea party movement is the most conspicuous contemporary vehicle for reconciliation between Christian and economic conservatives. The analysis draws upon participant observation of two recent Christian right events at which the tea party was a central preoccupation. Offering evidence of the dynamics of a shifting framing process, it is argued that the Christian right elites are willing to accommodate strategically the precedence of economic issues but only if these are accompanied by a commitment to familiar Christian right positions on social issues.     

Reducing criminal recidivism: evaluation of Citizenship, an evidence-based probation supervision process

‘Citizenship’ is a structured probation supervision program based on ‘what works’ principles, designed for offenders on community orders or licenses supervised within the UK National Probation Service. The program was evaluated using survival analysis comparing the reconvictions of a cohort of all offenders in one probation area eligible for Citizenship over a 2-year period (n = 3,819) with those of a retrospective cohort of all eligible offenders in the same probation area receiving ‘traditional’ probation supervision (n = 2,110), controlling for risk related factors. At the 2-year stage, 50% of offenders in the comparison group had reoffended compared to 41% in the experimental group, and the difference between the survival curves was statistically significant. The hazard ratio was 0.69, which represents a 31% reduction in reconvictions in the experimental group over the proportion in the comparison group at any given time. Time to violation of a supervision order or post custody license was also statistically significantly longer in the experimental group. A key element of the program, promoting contact with community support agencies, was statistically significantly related to reduced reoffending in the Citizenship group. The overall effects remained after controlling for differences in risk scores although effectiveness varied by risk level. Contrary to other ‘what works’ research findings, the program was found to be most effective across the low–medium and medium–high risk thresholds, and was not effective with the highest risk group. This difference can be explained and is discussed in terms of risk, need, and responsivity principles. The Citizenship program was found to be cost-beneficial.     

Predicting public support for the use of license plate recognition technology by police

The use of license plate recognition technology (LPR) by police is becoming increasingly common. LPR may be used for many purposes, ranging from stolen vehicle enforcement to more complex surveillance and predictive functions. Existing research does not examine community support for this technology, despite its potential to impact police legitimacy. Results from the first community LPR survey are presented and multinomial logistic regression models of citizen support for the technology are developed. Regression results suggest that a number of factors significantly predict citizen support for LPR use, including increased trust in police and the belief that LPR information is public information.     

The Effect of “China Bashing” on Sino-American Relations

Many scholars argue that a sizable share of the news about China published in U.S. newspapers engages in ??China Bashing.?? This paper quantifies the extent of the bashing and examines its effect on Sino-American relations. To measure bashing, I develop an index based on the count of articles in major U.S. newspapers that are related to China and also touch on one or more of the following issues: human rights, Tibet, democracy, child labor, and repression. I repeat this process for newspapers from Australia and New Zealand to net out ??fundamental?? news. To examine the effect of the bashing on Sino-American relations, I use the China-US relations score of Yan et al. (Zhongwai guanxi dingliang yuce, [?????????????; Quantitative Forecasts of China??s Foreign Relations]. Beijing, China: Shijie heshi chubanshe, 2009, Zhongwai guanxi jianlan 1950-2005??Zhongguo yu daguo guanxi dingliang hengliang [??????????1950-2005???й???????????????; China??s Foreign Relations with Major Powers by the Numbers 1950-2005]. Beijing: Gaodeng jiaoyu chubanshe, 2010) and estimate a dynamic transfer model with the constructed bashing index, as well as other control variables. The results indicate that a one-standard-deviation shock in bashing leads to a 0.038 point decline in Yan??s Sino-American index after about four months. The results further imply that the cumulative long-run effect of persistent China bashing is equivalent to about 50?% of the decline in Sino-American relations that followed the U.S. bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade on May 7, 1999, the worst shock to Sino-American relations during the sample period, 1990 to 2010.     

Strategy first in international joint ventures

International technology- based joint ventures are proliferating despite their inherent complexity and high risk of failure. US firms continue to employ international joint ventures as a vehicle for collaborative research and development (R & D); foreign investors prefer the joint venture for investing in the emerging market economies of Eastern Europe. Tipping the balance in favor of successful joint ventures requires a strategic approach from the very advent of entering into an international R&D arrangement: an approach in which clear objectives are set and alternative ways to reach these objectives are systematically evaluated. Several frameworks are presented that clarify and facilitate the decisionmaking process during the initial phases of considering a joint venture in which project objectives are developed, alternative R&D arrangements are evaluated, and potential partners are identified and eventually selected.