The future is uncertain and the end is always near

The standard view of contemporary unipolar politics is that systemic constraints impede the translation of American power capabilities into influence over security outcomes, rendering the United States (US) much less capable than its material capabilities imply. Challenging this logic, William Wohlforth and Stephen Brooks argue that systemic constraints under unipolarity are largely inoperative with respect to the security policies of the unipolar power. Indeed, the US is uniquely positioned in today's world to convert its enormous capability advantages into influence and usable power. While World out of balance is a masterwork of logical and rigorous argumentation, Brooks and Wohlforth, in their exclusive focus on the hegemon and its policies, do not attempt to offer a general theory of unipolarity. Thus, they do not consider the possibility that unipolarity does not constrain any actors or the issue of system change. This essay advances two routes out of unipolarity: (1) a ‘delegitimation’ phase followed by regular balancing behavior and (2) a sudden and dramatic shift from unipolarity to multipolarity brought on by an unforeseen US collapse.     

Digital Nonviolence

The digital age features titillating technologies, on-demand consumption, and information saturation. Technology has a unique capacity to offer a sense of greater connection, even as its actual workings may yield deeper forms of dislocation and alienation. While the marketing of new tech often highlights the potential for enhanced mobility, access, equity, and opportunity, the emerging evidence on the full range of impacts is beginning to tell another story. Among other challenges, there are nascent accounts of the effects technology is having on youth in particular, including disconcerting rates of anxiety, depression, and even aggression. Constant use of electronic devices may impair the ability to take responsibility for conduct, manage one’s emotions, and to develop strong bonds of empathy for others. Some tech pioneers have begun openly questioning their handiwork, and a larger coalition of former industry insiders has coalesced in order to confront the effects of social media and smartphones—with one even characterizing the dangers of technology saturation as a gathering “existential threat.”     

Sovereign Currency and Non-Sovereign Budgets: The Modern Money Theory Approach

This paper will present the Modern Money Theory approach to government finance. In short, a national government that chooses its own money of account, imposes a tax in that money of account, and issues currency in that money of account cannot face a financial constraint. It can make all payments as they come due. It cannot be forced into insolvency. While this was well-understood in the early post-war period, it was gradually “forgotten” as the neoclassical theory of the household budget constraint was applied to government finance. Matters were made worse by the development of “generational accounting” that calculated hundreds of trillions of dollars of government red ink through eternity due to what neoconservatives label “entitlements” (largely, Medicare and Social Security). As austerity measures were increasingly adopted at the national level, fiscal responsibility was shifted to state and local governments through “devolution.” A “stakeholder” approach to government finance helped fuel white flight to suburbs and produced “doughnut holes” in the cities. To reverse these trends, we need to redevelop our understanding of the fiscal space open to the currency issuer—expanding its responsibility not only for national social spending but also for helping to fund state and local government spending. This is no longer just an academic debate, given the challenges posed by climate change, growing inequality, secular stagnation, and the rise of Trumpism.     

Thermal shrinkage of small single acrylic fibers — A technique of forensic potential

Single fibers less than 1 mm long of nine types of acrylic fibers were thermally shrunk from 85°C to 285°C by hot stage optical microscopy. A surprisingly wide variety of behavior was observed. The temperature for the onset of shrinkage ranged from 105°C to 190°C; total contraction ranged from 2% to 64%; and some fibers contracted rather steadily, whereas others contracted abruptly. Reproducibility of shrinkage was excellent for most monocomponent fibers but was less reproducible for bicomponent fibers. In general, it was found that the technique may be used to discriminate among fiber types within a single fiber generic class using submicrogram sized samples.