The Effect of a Standard to Improve Person Descriptions by Children

This study examines whether or not using a person as a standard/comparison improves the ability of a child witness to provide more accurate detail about a previously observed person. Study participants included 135 children who observed a male stranger and were then later asked to describe and answer various questions about that person using a third-person standard/comparison. Despite the fact that one-half of participants were exposed to a standard/comparison, neither participants’ gender or exposure to the standard/comparison improved recollection outcomes. However, the gender of the standard/comparisons - especially where female - did have a significant effect on the recall ability of male participants.     

Self-destructing prophecies: Long-term forecasting of municipal correctional bed need

Although municipal jails consume a significant amount of resources and the number of inmates housed in such facilities exploded in the 1990s, the literature on forecasting jail populations is sparse. Jail administrators have available discussions on jail crowding and its causes, but do not have ready access to applications of forecasting techniques or practical demonstrations of a jail inmate population forecast. This article argues that the underlying reason for this deficiency is the inherent unpredictability of local long-term correctional population levels. The driving forces behind correctional bed need render local jail population forecasts empirically valid only for a brief time frame. These inherent difficulties include the volatile nature of jail populations and their greater sensitivity when compared with prison populations to local conditions; the gap between the data needed for local correctional population forecasting and what is realistically available to forecasters; the lack of reliable lead variables for long-term local correctional population forecasts; the clash of the mathematics of forecasting and the substantive issues involved in the interpretation of forecast models; and the significant political and policy impacts of forecasts on local criminal justice systems and subsequent correctional population trends.The differences between the accuracy of short-term versus long-term jail bed need forecasts means that forecasting local correctional bed need is empirically valid for, at best, one to two years. As the temporal cast is extended, longer-term forecasts quickly become error prone. Except for unique situations where jails exist in highly stable local political, social, and criminal justice environments, long-term forecasts of two years or greater are fatally flawed and have little empirical accuracy. Long-term forecasts of local jail bed needs are useful, though, as policy catalysts to encourage policymakers to consider possible long-term impacts of current decisions, but forecasts should be thought of and presented as one possible future scenario rather than a likely reality. Utilizing a demonstration of a local jail forecast based upon two common empirical forecasting approaches, ARIMA and autoregression, this article presents a case study of the inherent difficulties in the long-term forecasting of local jail bed need.     

Affordability After Subsidies: Understanding the Trajectories of Former Assisted Housing in Florida

Each year, thousands of units are lost from the assisted rental housing inventory through deterioration and default, subsidy expiration, and market-rate conversion. While a good deal of research and data collection has focused on identifying at-risk developments, less is known about what happens to former assisted developments after they exit income and rent restrictions. This article uses a survey of former assisted properties in Florida to identify their postsubsidy trajectories—that is, as to whether developments continue as rental housing, are converted to condominiums, or leave the housing stock through vacancy and demolition; and for those that continue as rental housing, whether they continue to offer affordable rents. Using logistic regression models, the article examines the property, housing market, and neighborhood characteristics that determine these trajectories. The results show that smaller properties, those that have been out of subsidy programs longer, and those in stronger neighborhood housing markets are more likely to be converted to condominiums. Among developments that continue as rental housing, those that previously had more stringent rent restrictions, those in strong rental submarkets, and those with better transit access tend to become unaffordable compared with previous rent limits.     

Differentiation of hydrocephalic calf and human calvariae

Occasionally, partial calvariae of hydrocephalic calves are found in forensic contexts and mistakenly identified as human. Such specimens can be properly identified through immunological assessment of associated soft tissue, microscopic analysis of associated hair, and morphological comparison with documented museum specimens. Morphological comparison should focus on the form of the occiput, supraorbital grooves, and bulbous vault and presence of coronal processes.     

Neighborhood Effects and Compensation for Property Value Diminution

This paper analyzes the legal issues surrounding defendants' liability for property value diminution caused by stigma from environmental contamination. The courts, law review articles, and public policy analyses are in disagreement over how to handle stigma damages. This paper argues that a reasonable risk of contamination is not required for a nuisance claim if community effects, which were caused by the contamination, are present. The authors then turn to issues regarding the level of damages and propose a methodology for measuring compensation that is based on a guaranteed sales price. This methodology is applied to the RSR smelter in Dallas, Texas.     

Training strategies designed to mitigate agency liability in lawsuits against the police

Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology -