Rational Choice,Agency and Thoughtfully Reflective Decision Making: The Short and Long-Term Consequences of Making Good Choices

Notions of human agency are a prominent part of some but not all criminological theories. For example, McCarthy (Annu Rev Sociol 28:417–442, 2002) argues that rational choice theory, which allows persons great involvement in decision making, is more congenial with notions of human agency than others. It would appear from his argument that rational choice theory offers fertile ground to develop a clearly defined role for human agency in criminal behavior. In this paper we have taken up McCarthy’s view and argue that an important part of what is human agency consists of thoughtfully reflective decision making. We outline four elements of thoughtfully reflective decision making, and claim that it is a characteristic that varies both across persons and within persons over time. It is in short the process by which good decisions are made because by using this process one increases the likelihood that choices made will be consistent with preferences. We develop a clear operational definition of thoughtfully reflective decision making and link it to the concept of human agency. We also articulate testable hypotheses about the short-term and longer-term implications of thoughtfully reflective decision making. We conclude with a discussion of what we think lies ahead for future conceptual and empirical work.

What’s in an MSW? Graduate education for public child welfare workers,intention, engagement,and work environment

ABSTRACT

This study employs a mixed methods analysis of exit survey data gathered from public child welfare employees at their completion of a Title IV-E funded MSW program, distinct because it was initiated during a period of major reform and permitted students to continue employment during their studies. Findings suggest that opportunities for growth and manageable levels of stress were associated with intentions to stay and engagement with the work, reflected in respondents’ positive perceptions of their roles in the work environment and their retrospective assessments of the impact of their social work education.     

The Relationship between Homelessness and Behavior Problems among Youth in North Texas: a Brief Report

This study sought to examine the relationship between homelessness and behavior problems among a community-based sample of youth in North Texas. Data were obtained from a cross-sectional, probability sample of households and a targeted sample of homeless families in Dallas, Texas, with children older than 5 years old (N?=?5232). Parents were asked to report five behavior problems on behalf of their children including arrest or trouble with police, academic problems, behavior problems at school, suspension, and suicide attempts. Logistic and negative binomial regression procedures were used to examine the relationship between homelessness and behavior problems. Youth exposed to homelessness were 36% (OR?=?1.63; 95% CI 1.00–1.85) more likely to exhibit any kind of behavior problems than youth who had never experienced homelessness. Homeless youth had 5.51 times the odds of arrest (95% CI 2.60–11.68), 1.74 times the odds of academic problems (95% CI 1.24–2.43), and more than 3 times the odds of suicide attempts (95% CI 1.46, 7.61) than youth who had never been homeless. Homelessness was associated with higher rates of problem behavior, including arrests, academic problems, and suicide attempts. Because homeless youth are commonly enrolled in school and present at health care clinics and emergency departments, clinics and schools may aid in the identification of homeless youth, as well as referral to care. In this way, clinicians may help reduce the burden of behavioral problems that disproportionately affect homeless youth.     

Modeling Change in Perceptions about Sanction Threats: The Neglected Linkage in Deterrence Theory

Deterrence theory describes a process of offender decision making that consists of two linkages—one in which official sanctions and other information affect a would-be offenders perceptions about the risks of criminal conduct, and another in which such perceptions influence the decision whether or not to offend. Decades worth of empirical research has concentrated virtually exclusively on this latter linkage, and in so doing, has produced an incomplete account of the deterrence process. This article develops a model of how perceptions of sanction certainty are modified in response to an individuals involvement in criminal activity and the consequences (if any) therefrom. Implications of the model are tested with data from a multi-wave, panel survey of 1,530 high school students from the southeastern U.S. Key findings include: the manner in which new information affects perceived certainty depends on the level of perceived certainty before the new information is received, and the extent of peer offending was one of the most influential factors in determining change in perceived sanction certainty over time.     

The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1984 update

In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have remarkable explanatory power. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election.     

The analysis of an intracerebral hematoma for drugs of abuse

Toxicological investigations were performed on an intracerebral hematoma, antemortem blood, and postmortem blood of an individual who was found unresponsive in his home. The hematoma was found to have ethanol at a concentration of 0.05% (w/v), and benzoylecgonine (a cocaine metabolite) was also confirmed at a concentration of 0.43 mg/L by specific analysis using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). These results enabled the pathologist to record the cause of death as intracerebral hemorrhage due to acute cocaine intoxication.     

Inference of human geographic origins using Alu insertion polymorphisms

The inference of an individual's geographic ancestry or origin can be critical in narrowing the field of potential suspects in a criminal investigation. Most current technologies rely on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes to accomplish this task. However, SNPs can introduce homoplasy into an analysis since they can be identical-by-state. We introduce the use of insertion polymorphisms based on short interspersed elements (SINEs) as a potential alternative to SNPs. SINE polymorphisms are identical-by-descent, essentially homoplasy-free, and inexpensive to genotype using a variety of approaches. Herein, we present results of a blind study using 100 Alu insertion polymorphisms to infer the geographic ancestry of 18 unknown individuals from a variety of geographic locations. Using a Structure analysis of the Alu insertion polymorphism-based genotypes, we were able to correctly infer the geographic affiliation of all 18 unknown human individuals with high levels of confidence. This technique to infer the geographic affiliation of unknown human DNA samples will be a useful tool in forensic genomics.     

Declining options/increasing needs

Before that, he served at the National Institute of Education. He has held teaching appointments at the Universities of Illinois and Oregon and at Cornell University, and is now adjunct professor at George Washington University. He has authored fifteen books, including Finding Work: Cross National Perspectives; Program Evaluation and the Management of Government;and he has edited the last four volumes of Policy Studies Review Annual.