Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations

Three vote-share equations are estimated and analyzed in this article, one for presidential elections, one for on-term House elections, and one for midterm House elections. The sample period is 1916–2006. Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the same economic variables affect each and to examine various serial correlation and coattail possibilities. The main conclusions are (1) there is strong evidence that the economy affects all three vote shares and in remarkably similar ways; (2) there is no evidence of any presidential coattail effects on the on-term House elections; (3) there is positive serial correlation in the House vote, which likely reflects a positive incumbency effect for elected representatives; and (4) the presidential vote share has a negative effect on the next midterm House vote share, which is likely explained by a balance argument.     

Mock-juror reactions to multiple interview presentation and rapport-building

ABSTRACT

In the UK and some US states, video-recorded investigative interviews of child victims/witnesses can be presented in court as the child’s evidence-in-chief. However, there is scarce advice or research on the effect that presenting different sections of the interviews may have on juror perceptions of the child’s testimony. Two aspects of testimony presentation are examined here: first, whether to show the rapport-building phase of the interview, and second, the presentation of multiple interviews (i.e. more than one interview with the same child). Participants (n?=?103) informed they were watching two interviews of the same child separated by a week had more positive perceptions of the child’s testimony than those informed they were watching just one extended interview with a ten-minute break. Also, those watching the rapport-building phase had less positive perceptions of the child’s testimony than those who did not watch this phase. Participants’ perceptions of the interviewer and their case progression decisions were mainly not related to the above presentational differences. Thus, (i) mock-jurors were not inherently biased against multiple interviews and (ii) decisions regarding whether or not to show the rapport-building phase in court may have significant effects on jurors’ perceptions of the child and their testimony.     

Pivot but Hedge: A Strategy for Pivoting to Asia While Hedging in the Middle East

The U.S. government's new emphasis on the Asia-Pacific represents a bold strategic choice that could animate U.S. national security policy for years to come. Yet the United States must balance its rightful new focus on the Asia-Pacific with the volatility that still exists in other areas of the world. The United States should pivot to the Asia-Pacific—but to protect its vital interests, it should also hedge against threats elsewhere, particularly in the greater Middle East. To implement a “Pivot but Hedge” strategy, the U.S. government should do three things. First, it should exercise caution when cutting the defense budget. Second, it should give the military services greater leadership roles in specific regions: naval and air forces should lead in the Asia-Pacific, while ground forces should lead in the greater Middle East. Third, it should maintain expansible, capable, and well-trained ground forces as a hedge against global uncertainty.     

The Enforcement of the Treaty of Versailles, 1919–1923

This paper uses the episode of the Kapp putsch in March 1920 to isolate and analyze a number of high policy themes that dominated the period from the signature of the Treaty of Versailles through to the Franco-Belgian invasion of the Ruhr. These included: the questions of what mechanisms existed to enforce the treaty; the sanctions available to the victorious governments to enforce their will; the position and problems of the German government; the relationship and suspicions existing between Britain and France and the differing aims, ambitions, and approaches of the major participants.     

Out on the town: an evaluation of brief motivational interventions to address the risks associated with problematic alcohol use

Alcohol has long been identified as a significant contributory factor in crime and anti social behaviour, yet there is a dearth of effective treatment available for those individuals whose drinking contributes significantly to their criminality, and subsequently the health risks and the economic and wider social implications associated with it. The literature on treatment programmes is drawn almost exclusively from medical experience but indicates that brief interventions are at least as effective as more intensive programmes in reducing alcohol consumption in at-risk groups. This research was undertaken to evaluate projects based in the West Midlands, United Kingdom, providing brief motivational interventions to offenders arrested for offences where alcohol is identified as a significant contributory factor. The evaluation indicates that an arrest referral scheme as developed in the West Midlands can achieve good levels of identification and referral, acceptable attendance, retention rates, and effective outcomes in terms of attitude and behaviour change.     

Artifacts in the GC-MS profiling of underivatized methamphetamine hydrochloride

When underivatized methamphetamine hydrochloride (MA.HCl) in methanol is subjected to the instant gas chromatographic-mass spectrometric (GC-MS) profiling with old inlet liners at temperatures above 200 degrees C, appreciable amounts of N,N-dimethylamphetamine (DMA) and amphetamine (AP) are produced. The presence of these two artifacts is attributed to the N-demethylation and N-methylation reactions of MA as well as methyl group exchange with methanol. These artifacts are only produced in old injection port liners and at elevated temperatures. The formation of artifacts is proportional to concentration of MA.HCl. It is suggested that special cautions and measures be undertaken to prevent artifacts.     

DEVELOPING A FRAMEWORK FOR MANAGEMENT EDUCATION IN THE VICTORIAN PUBLIC SERVICE

Abstract: The Public Service Board of Victoria initiated a project in March 1989 to plan a framework for the development of competent managers. The methodology involved an examination of the current practices of 23 organisations, together with a worldwide literature search. The major findings were that the managerial task is similar across sectors, but the manager level and the environment are qualifying variables; that training, management education and development in private sector organisations and statutory bodies has total commitment from the chief executive, is closely linked to the business plan, forms part of an integrated human resource management system, and is continually reinforced by the organisation's culture and values; and that there is no strategic and focused approach to developing managers across the Victorian Public Service. The 21 recommendations covered the areas of investment and commitment, the development of a systematic approach by providing quality management programs based on core managerial competencies and the integration of training, education and development with performance management processes.
The implementation plan calls for pump-priming funds for resourcing and delivering high quality programs, a change in the culture, the adoption of a set of principles, the establishment of a management education unit, acceptance of a common language of competence for managers, and an integration of education and development needs with corporate plans through the performance improvement system. Commitment to implementation should result in a systematic approach to the formation of competent managers with the benefits flowing to the community through improved services, the government gaining by increased performance of the agencies, and public servants being able to reach their full potential.