Conclusion: agency,context and emergent post-uprising regimes

This conclusion summarizes the evidence explaining the divergent trajectories taken by post Arab uprising states in terms of multiple variables, each illustrated by an iconic case, namely: State Failure and Competitive governance (Syria), Regime Restoration and Hybrid Governance (Egypt) and Polyarchic Governance (Tunisia). Factors include the starting point: levels of opposition mobilization and regimes' resilience – a function of their patrimonial-bureaucratic balance; whether or not a transition coalition forms is crucial for democratization prospects. Context also matters for democratization, particularly political economic factors, such as a balance of class power and a productive economy; political culture (level of societal identity cleavages) and a minimum of international intervention. Finally, the balance of agency between democracy movements, Islamists, the military and workers shapes democratization prospects.     

Missing Data Problems in Criminological Research: Two Case Studies

This paper considers the problem of missing data in two circumstances commonly confronted by criminologists. In the first circumstance, there is missing data due to subject attrition—some cases drop out of a study. In this context, analysts are frequently interested in examining the association between an independent variable measured at time t(x _t ) and an outcome variable that is measured at time t + 1(y _t + 1); the problem is that the outcome variable is only observed for those cases which do not drop out of the study. In the second circumstance there is missing data on an independent variable of interest for typical reasons (i.e., the respondent did not wish to answer a question or could not be located). In this case, researchers are interested in estimating the association between the independent variable with missing data and an outcome variable that is fully observed. Criminologists often handle these two missing data problems by conducting analyses on the subsample of observations with complete data. In this paper, we explore this problem with two case studies and we then illustrate the use of methods that directly address the uncertainty produced by missing data.     

The historical roots and development of criminological statistics

The history of the development of criminological statistics must examine the emergence of social statistics in general. The theoretical concerns and technical questions raised by early criminologists cannot be isolated from the wider concerns of sociologists and statisticians at work in other fields. This article traces the history and problems of crime and justice statistics through the distinct periods: a “preparatory” phase (1650–1800),and a “conceptualization” phase (1800–1914). In addition, while specifically noting a dependent relationship with the fields of demography and statistics, the separation of criminological statistics as an automous area is considered. The use of criminal justice statistics for comparative and other purposes has come under considerable review and criticism during recent years, and an examination of historical sources and problems serves to increase the understanding and usefulness of these statistics today.     

Social humanities

With the rise to eminence and influence of scientists in recent years the distinction between scientific judgment and the judgment of scientists has been increasingly blurred. In particular, the meaning and definition of the social sciences and of their auxiliary or more applied disciplines has become confused. On the one hand, several value-centered undertakings such as policy analysis or planning have laid claim to status as sciences, while on the other hand, social scientists have increasingly attacked the legitimacy or reasonableness of the goal of value-free social science. Scientific publicists further confuse the discussion by arguing for the discovery of a value-free, scientific basis for society in which applied science equals policy. The result has been to damage the effectiveness of both scientific and nonscientific efforts, and to confuse the relationship of their activities in the minds of those who regularly feel compelled to cross a variety of scientific and nonscientific frontiers.