Is it a Pearl or a Kidney Stone? Intelligence Reform and Embassy Reporting,from Moscow to Baghdad

A July 1990 cable from the US Embassy in Moscow that anticipated the collapse of the Soviet Union is a case study for an analysis in this article that seeks to make three points: 1) major failures in intelligence analysis are more likely to result when all elements of the intelligence community speak with one voice than when they disagree; 2) embassy reporting can play an essential role independent of that of the intelligence community in shaping Washington thinking about international events, but a variety of developments have made this increasingly difficult; 3) probability analysis plays too great a role in intelligence products and risk management too little.     

Environmental approaches and prevention: The dangers of imprecision

Abstract

This paper urges environmental psychologists to adopt an “empiricist stance” as they focus their field's expertise on issues related to prevention in mental health. Criteria for such a stance are presented which presume that preventive interventions evolve sequentially from a program of research which clarifies the nature, epidemiology, etiological mechanisms and natural history of the mental illness or psychological dysfunction to be prevented. The rationale for this stance is based on empirical, political and ethical grounds. The applicability of this stance to the current status of the emerging field of environmental approaches to prevention in mental health is reviewed specifically in relation to the contributions to the special issue of Prevention in Human Services.     

Political Participation and Civic Courage: The Negative Effect of Transparency on Making Small Campaign Contributions

This study assesses whether public disclosure of campaign contributions affects citizens’ willingness to give money to candidates. In the American states, campaign finance laws require disclosure of private information for contributors at relatively low thresholds ranging from $1 to $300. The Internet has made it relatively easy to publicize such information in a way that changes the social context for political participation. Drawing on social influence theory, the analysis suggests that citizens are sensitive to divulging private information, especially those who are surrounded by people with different political views. Using experimental data from the 2011 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies, it demonstrates how individuals refrain from making small campaign contributions or reduce their donations to avoid disclosing their identities. The conclusion discusses the implications of transparency laws for political participation, especially for small donors.     

Book Reviews

Book reviewed in this article: Operation Rollback: America's Secret War Behind the Iron Curtain by Peter Grose. Undermining the Kremlin: America's Strategy to Subvert the Soviet Bloc, 1947–1956 by Gregory Mitrovich.