Federal policy mandating safer cigarettes: a hypothetical simulation of the anticipated population health gains or losses.

If manufacturing a safer cigarette is technically possible--an open question--then mandating that tobacco manufacturers improve the safety of cigarettes would likely have both positive and negative implications for the nation's health. On the one hand, removing toxins may reduce the incidence of smoking-related diseases and premature mortality in smokers. On the other hand, smokers might be less inclined to quit, those who have quit might resume the habit, and youth who have never smoked will have one less reason to avoid tobacco use. To assess the expected population health impacts of a legislative or regulatory mandate, we created the Tobacco Policy Model, a system dynamics computer simulation model. The model relies on secondary data and simulates the U.S. population over time spans as long as 50 years. Our simulation results reveal that even if requiring cigarettes to be safer makes smoking more attractive and increases tobacco use, a net gain in population health is still possible.     

A Partial Revolution: The Diplomatic Ethos and Transparency in Intergovernmental Organizations

The World Trade Organization and other intergovernmental organizations confront a crisis of legitimacy that is partly rooted in their perceived secretiveness. These organizations have attempted to address this crisis by promising "the maximum possible level of transparency," but in fact, the improvements have been modest. Policies regarding access to information about intergovernmental organizations' operations continue to accommodate conventions of diplomatic confidentiality. Such conventions are more likely to be breached in areas where disclosure of information is essential to economic liberalization. A true revolution in transparency would require more rigorous policies on disclosure of information held by intergovernmental organizations such as the World Trade Organization, and could be justified as a prerequisite for the exercise of basic human rights, such as the right to participate fully in the policy-making process.     

Leviathan and Fiscal Illusion in Local Government Overlapping Jurisdictions

This paper integrates twomodels of local government behavior,leviathan and fiscal illusion, into theframework of overlapping jurisdictions.Estimation of the leviathan and fiscalillusion variables without accounting forvertical effects between overlappingjurisdictions results in overestimation ofthe horizontal effects. Using a medianvoter model and municipal and county datawe find support for the leviathan modelusing traditional tests. These effects arelargely offset, however, when the test isset within the context of the verticalrelationship. We find that municipal percapita expenditures and county per capitaexpenditures are symmetricallycomplementary.     

Paul D. Cravath, The First World War, and the Anglophile Internationalist Tradition

The First World War played a central role in the creation within the United States of an Atlanticist foreign policy elite or establishment, a group of influential Americans drawn primarily from upper class lawyers, bankers, academics, and politicians of the Eastern seaboard, committed to a strand of Anglophile internationalism which to date has received considerably less scholarly attention than that of Wilsonian universalism. The evolution of the Atlanticist Establishment can be traced in the career of Paul D. Cravath, one of New York's foremost corporation lawyers. For Cravath, in his mid-fifties when the war began, the conflict served as an epiphany, sparking an interest in international affairs that dominated his remaining career. Fiercely Anglophile, he strongly supported American intervention in the war, and hoped that close Anglo-American cooperation would be the guiding principle of post-war international organization. In the 1920s Cravath urged the reduction of both German reparations and inter-allied war debts; he also supported United States membership in the World Court. Before his death in July 1940 Cravath, though initially far from optimistic that his country would once more take arms against Germany in the Second World War, was as staunchly pro-Allied as during the previous conflict.     

Revolutionary challenges to the anarchical society of states

David Armstrong, Revolution and World Order: The Revolutionary State in International Society (Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1993), ix + 328 pp. Index. £37.50.