Growth and the Welfare State in the EU: A Causality Analysis

In this paper, we test for causality between GDP growth andsocial protection expenditure in the European Union. To that end,we apply Hsiao's (1981) sequential procedure to data for twelveEU countries along the 1970–1994 period. Our results suggestthat, for Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands,Portugal, and Spain, causality runs only from social protectiongrowth to GDP growth, while for Denmark, France, Greece, Italy,and the United Kingdom, no causality is found between socialprotection growth and GDP growth.     

新形势下巴基斯坦的货币政策改革与调整

本文从现实需要和深层次矛盾两方面分析了巴基斯坦货币政策调整的必要性,从调控目标和调控方式等方面说明了巴货币政策调整的难点,分析了近年货币政策调整的主要举措,其政策调整虽取得了一定成效,但仍面临诸多问题。     

Democracy and dictatorship revisited

We address the strengths and weaknesses of the main available measures of political regime and extend the dichotomous regime classification first introduced in Alvarez et al. (Stud. Comp. Int. Dev. 31(2):3–36, 1996). This extension focuses on how incumbents are removed from office. We argue that differences across regime measures must be taken seriously and that they should be evaluated in terms of whether they (1) serve to address important research questions, (2) can be interpreted meaningfully, and (3) are reproducible. We argue that existing measures of democracy are not interchangeable and that the choice of measure should be guided by its theoretical and empirical underpinnings. We show that the choice of regime measure matters by replicating studies published in leading journals.     

论高校安全稳定的舆论引导体系构建

近年来,随着社会快速发展,高校安全稳定日益引起高度关注。构建科学合理的高校安全稳定的舆论引导体系重要性日益凸显。本文分析了当前我国高校安全稳定的舆论引导体系重要意义,探讨了构建体系的理念、原则和构建科学合理的高校安全稳定的舆论引导体系。     

能源促进可持续发展与国际技术转让

能源是促进可持续发展和减少贫穷的核心,而高效、节能、无害环境的先进技术是改善可获得能源、提高能效、减少温室气体排放、促进可持续发展的关键.鼓励技术创新的同时,平衡发达国家和发展中国家的利益、技术转让人和受让人的利益.从而通过技术转让提高发展中国家的能源技术水平和能力,是促进可持续发展的有力保障.     

我国社会主义经济学的理论演变与不足

我国社会主义经济学在半个多世纪的发展中,第一阶段是从1949年到70年代末,基本照搬了“苏联模式”。从1979年后大致可分为三个阶段,在这三个阶段,我国社会主义经济学发展迅速。而目前的社会主义经济学发展滞后,面临着严峻的挑战。     

Immigration Policy and Hispanic Representation in National Elections

For the first time in U.S. history, after decades of unprecedented growth in interior immigration enforcement disproportionately impacting Latinos, ten percent of the U.S. House of Representatives is Hispanic. Using congressional district-level data on all candidates participating in general elections to the U.S. House of Representatives between 2008 and 2018, we show that intensified immigration enforcement suppressed Hispanics’ representation in congressional elections. The effect—nonexistent for other minorities, such as non-Hispanic Black candidates, as well as in primary elections—is driven by local police-based measures and diminished electoral support. Furthermore, it appears more harmful during midterm elections and in localities without a sanctuary policy.     

Should I Care or Should I Work? The Impact of Work on Informal Care

This paper provides novel evidence on how a sharp increase in labor force participation among older women affects the provision of informal care to their older parents. Based on data from Understanding Society – The UK Household Longitudinal Study, we use an instrumental variable approach that exploits a unique reform that increased the female State Pension age by up to six years. Our results provide evidence of a trade-off between the intensive margin of work and informal care provided outside the household: an increase of 10 hours of work per week reduces the provision of informal care by 2.1 hours a week, which amounts to roughly £2,100 of yearly care-hours lost. This reduction in caregiving is largest among women working in physically or psychosocially demanding jobs, and “sandwich generation” women who have both a living grandchild and a parent alive. Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we show that older parents whose daughters became ineligible to claim their pensions experienced a significant reduction in the amount of care they receive from their daughters, which was not compensated by an increase in formal care or other sources of support. Our results suggest that policies that increase older workers’ labor supply require changes in long-term care policy that compensate for the loss of informal care.     

The color of child mortality in Brazil, 1950-2000: social progress and persistent racial inequality

Now that racism has been officially recognized in Brazil, and some universities have adopted affirmative-action admission policies, measures of the magnitude of racial inequality and analyses that identify the factors associated with changes in racial disparities over time assume particular relevance to the conduct of public debate. This study uses census data from 1950 to 2000 to estimate the probability of death in the early years of life, a robust indicator of the standard of living among the white and Afro-Brazilian populations. Associated estimates of the average number of years of life expectancy at birth show that the 6.6-year advantage that the white population enjoyed in the 1950s remained virtually unchanged throughout the second half of the twentieth century, despite the significant improvements that accrued to both racial groups. The application of multivariate techniques to samples selected from the 1960, 1980, and 2000 census enumerations further shows that, controlling for key determinants of child survival, the white mortality advantage persisted and even increased somewhat in 2000. The article discusses evidence of continued racial inequality during an era of deep transformation in social structure, with reference to the challenges of skin color classification in a multiracial society and the evolution of debates about color, class, and discrimination in Brazil.     

边境地区新型公共治理模式研究

在内蒙古边境地区,因各社会主体公共服务需求的多方位持续增长,促生出一种新型公共治理模式,其突出特点是:三个功能系统,即边境地区社会治安综合治理多主体联功系统,边境地区应急管理指挥系统和边境地区公共服务系统合而为一,并相得益彰,对中国北部边境广大区域的农牧民的生产生活产生了日益深刻而意义重大的积极影响.这一治理模式所蕴含的一些独创性探索,如多元主体共同参与社会公共治理;依托原有机构,建立集多项应急管理功能于一体的首个农村应急管理系统;对边境地区基层政府公共管理的改进等,都值得我们在治理理论框架下予以深入分析.