How stable is party identification?

This essay refines and extends our argument (Green and Palmquist, 1990) that net of the distorting effects of measurement error, Americans' partisanship tends to be highly stable over time. Three challenges to this thesis are addressed. In response to doubts about the generalizability of our earlier findings to panel studies of longer duration or from other eras, we show that nine multi-wave panel studies yield similar results. Next, we take up the question of whether our model can account for observed patterns of partisan conversion. The rate of party-switching forces some modifications in the statistical assumptions used to model party identification over time, but a revised model which can account for inter-party change reproduces earlier findings of partisan stability. Third, we grapple with the question of how our findings square with fluctuations in what has been termed macropartisanship. We suggest that aggregate shifts in party identification need not be incompatible with strong over-time correlations at the individual level. Finally, we develop a simulation of micropartisanship to illustrate that over long stretches of time very gradual changes in partisanship can accumulate to produce appreciable levels of micropartisan change.Donald Philip Green, Yale University.Bradley Palmquist, Harvard University.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, September 3–6, 1992.     

Anticipating demographic superiority: Kazakh thinking on integration and nation building

"In order to understand and to forecast what kind of nations will take shape in the new states of the former Soviet Union it is important to focus on the express objectives and actual strategies of the nation builders.... In this article I will concentrate on the ideological aspect, that is, on official and semi-official statements outlining the idea of ?the Kazakhstani nation', as Kazakhstani nation builders would like to see it develop." Particular attention is given to the changes in the ethnic composition of the country due primarily to the different demographic characteristics of the main ethnic groups that make up the population, the ethnic Kazakhs and Russians, and to the political implications of the growth of the Kazakhs from a minority to a majority ethnic group.     

Sanctioned violence: development and the persecution of women as witches in south Bihar

In South Bihar, India, socially sanctioned witch-hunting and persecution led to the deaths of 15 women in 1994 and 24 women and children in 1994. This article presents case studies to suggest that the underlying causes of this behavior are not superstition and illiteracy but are efforts to maintain women's inferior status by enforcing female economic subjugation, sexual exploitation, and the persecution of widows and independent, vocal women. In these cases, superstitious beliefs were exploited by community members with ulterior motives who compensated village witch doctors for collaborating with any accusation made against a local woman. After an introduction and presentation of the issues, the article describes the social and economic context and presents four case studies of women accused of witchcraft. The women involved were either forced to consume human excreta and then banished; raped and left for dead when five other family members were murdered, including a year-old baby; or protected through the intervention of a nongovernmental organization or a district welfare officer. The article then discusses the implications of this phenomenon for development work through a look at the power of social sanction, the role of witch doctors, the gender dimension, the power of the village headmen and the traditional administration system, and the larger motives behind the behavior. The article ends by suggesting interventions such as focusing on eliminating atrocities towards women, forming support groups, sensitizing officials, incorporating gender sensitivity in development efforts, and increasing access to health and education.     

Congress advances on health care reform: one step at a time

In adopting the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPAA), Congress made a series of small but significant steps toward improving access to health care benefits. The Act's centerpiece is its new requirements for group health plans and for the health insurance industry for assuring portability, access, and renewability of health insurance coverage. Of nearly equal importance is the pilot program established for testing the viability of medical savings accounts. Other health-related changes include adjustments in the rules governing duplication and coordinating of Medicare-related plans, recommendations with respect to privacy of health information of employees, an increase in the deduction for health insurance costs for self-employed individuals, and permission for unemployed persons to make withdrawals from IRAs and other qualified plans for certain medical services' costs. This article summarizes these and other key provisions of HIPAA.