Forecasts of Violence to Inform Sentencing Decisions

Objectives

Recent legislation in Pennsylvania mandates that forecasts of "future dangerousness" be provided to judges when sentences are given. Similar requirements already exist in other jurisdictions. Research has shown that machine learning can lead to usefully accurate forecasts of criminal behavior in such setting. But there are settings in which there is insufficient IT infrastructure to support machine learning. The intent of this paper is provide a prototype procedure for making forecasts of future dangerousness that could be used to inform sentencing decisions when machine learning is not practical. We consider how classification trees can be improved so that they may provide an acceptable second choice.

Methods

We apply an version of classifications trees available in R, with some technical enhancements to improve tree stability. Our approach is illustrated with real data that could be used to inform sentencing decisions.

Results

Modest sized trees grown from large samples can forecast well and in a stable fashion, especially if the small fraction of indecisive classifications are found and accounted for in a systematic manner. But machine learning is still to be preferred when practical.

Conclusions

Our enhanced version of classifications trees may well provide a viable alternative to machine learning when machine learning is beyond local IT capabilities.     

Regimes of Cooperation in the Western Hemisphere: Power, Interests, and Intellectual Traditions

The 1994 Summit of the Americas marked a high point in hemispherism—our label for the active attempt by the nations of the Western Hemisphere to form regimes of cooperation with one another. To explain why hemispherism has not been a more powerful trend in the last 200 years, structural, interest, and cultural variables are relevant but insufficient factors. An important and often overlooked obstacle to hemispherism has beencontrarian ideas. Specifically, constellations of intellectual traditions that question the value of hemispheric cooperation have dampened both the demand for and supply of such regimes. Only when these antihemispheric intellectual traditions were in retreat—the late nineteenth century, the mid twentieth century, and the early 1990s—has hemispherism flourished. We posit three mechanisms through which intellectual traditions can decline, thus generating amodified cognitivist argument that can supplement power-based and interest-based explanations of regime formation and robustness.     

Estimation of stress in child neglect from thymic involution.

It is difficult to evaluate the extent of stress in cases of suspected child abuse/neglect in a medico-legal autopsy. We have previously reported that stress due to abuse/neglect was found to have led to thymic involution. To elucidate the influence upon thymocytes differentiation, we compared the proportion of the thymocyte subpopulation in the thymus of a neglected child with one in an age-matched control obtained from cardiac surgery. We found that the relative number of CD4+ CD8+ double positive (DP) thymocytes decreased in the neglected child. It was presumed that the selective decrease in the number of the immature DP thymocytes with CD3- to low bcl-2low caused the thymic involution in the neglected child. It was suggested that an alteration in the proportion of thymocytes subpopulation might be used as an index of stress in cases of child abuse/neglect.     

The Legal and Social Construction of Value in Government Procurement Markets

The Public Services (Social Value) Act 2012 introduces a social value duty. It requires public authorities in England and Wales that are carrying out procurement activities to ‘consider’ how such activities might ‘improve … economic, social and environmental well-being’. This article analyses qualitative, empirical data on how the social value duty has been interpreted and applied across local government in England. Although only a weak legal duty, this law has made a notable impact on practice. The article explains the changes brought about in practice under the social value duty and seeks to understand why these changes have occurred. It does so by recognizing local government procurement markets, as well as local government organizations themselves, as strategic action fields. In these fields, there are competing visions for social value. It is through conversations between actors that a common meaning comes to be attached to the law.     

‘The modern way to loveliness’: middle-class cosmetics and chain-store beauty culture in mid-twentieth-century Britain

In May 1935, the British manufacturer Boots launched ‘Number Seven’, a premium range of skin-care products sold via its nationwide network of chain-store chemists. Using material from the Boots Archive, this paper traces the early history of Number Seven to explore the changing meanings of middle-class cosmetics across the mid-twentieth century. Number Seven offered provincial and suburban women an explicitly modern form of facial beauty that married the logics of mass production to traditional moral aesthetics. Through the discourse of ‘loveliness’ and the careful management of in-store experience, it negotiated the prerogative connotations of colour cosmetics and the problematic influence of cinematic glamour. Yet by the mid-1950s, this construction had been superseded by a more situational understanding of beauty that was dependent on context and the appreciation of others. This fundamental shift in the normative aesthetics of public femininity had important implications for women on both sides of Boots’ toilet counters.     

Invisible Populations and the #MeToo Movement

The #MeToo movement has done a great deal to address sexual abuse and violence. There is no doubt that justice may occur when the right person speaks out. However, what happens when the wrong people—that is, people of color, the working class women, and transgender people— speak out on the same issue? When these “wrong people” do speak out, they are discredited, marginalized, and silenced by being ignored. This Viewpoint essay addresses two populations that have been overlooked by the #MeToo movement: women of color and transgender people. The essay concludes with recommendations for how the movement can move forward given the criticisms around the absence of diversity and transparency.