Forecasting Dangerous Inmate Misconduct: An Application of Ensemble Statistical Procedures

In this paper, we attempt to forecast which prison inmates are likely to engage in very serious misconduct while incarcerated. Such misconduct would usually be a major felony if committed outside of prison: drug trafficking, assault, rape, attempted murder and other crimes. The binary response variable is problematic because it is highly unbalanced. Using data from nearly 10,000 inmates held in facilities operated by the California Department of Corrections, we show that several popular classification procedures do no better than the marginal distribution unless the data are weighted in a fashion that compensates for the lack of balance. Then, random forests performs reasonably well, and better than CART or logistic regression. Although less than 3% of the inmates studied over 24 months were reported for very serious misconduct, we are able to correctly forecast such behavior about half the time.

Persistence of intimate partner violence among families referred to child welfare

The purpose of this study is to examine the longitudinal course of intimate partner violence (IPV) among female caregivers of children receiving child welfare services. Data are derived from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, a national probability study of children investigated for child abuse and neglect in the United States. Caregivers (n = 861) are interviewed about demographic characteristics, mental health, substance use, and physical violence by a partner at the close of the investigation and at an 18-month follow-up. Polychotomous logistic regression examines the associations of severe and minor IPV controlling for caregiver and environmental characteristics. The results suggest that factors related to initial risk for IPV do not affect the continuation of IPV and that patterns of IPV differ for racial and ethnic groups.     

On the limits of liberal peace: Chiefs and democratic decentralization in post-war Sierra Leone

Liberal peace, the explicit merging of international securityand development policy, has arrived fairly late on the scenein Sierra Leone. One of its primary foci is regimes of customarygovernance and sociality associated with chiefdom administration.Many international agencies consider these regimes irredeemablyoppressive towards the rural poor and a root cause of the recentcivil war. While the present government of Sierra Leone remainssupportive of chieftaincy, international donors are supportinga fast-track decentralization programme that, it is hoped, willsupply a new system of democratic governance to a rural populacealready straining against the leash of ‘custom’.This article, drawing upon the author’s recent fieldworkin Sierra Leone, undertakes a critical examination of this policy.It is argued that, popular grievances notwithstanding, chieftaincyis the historic focus of struggles for political control overthe Sierra Leonean countryside. Both the national elite andthe rural poor remain deeply engaged in these struggles, andmany among the latter continue to value customary authorityas a defence against the abuse of bureaucratic power. Fast-trackingdecentralization in the war-ravaged countryside may thereforeonly succeed in shifting the balance of political power awayfrom the poor.     

Rapid and high-throughput forensic short tandem repeat typing using a 96-lane microfabricated capillary array electrophoresis microdevice

A 96-channel microfabricated capillary array electrophoresis (muCAE) device was evaluated for forensic short tandem repeat (STR) typing using PowerPlex 16 and AmpFlSTR Profiler Plus multiplex PCR systems. The high-throughput muCAE system produced high-speed <30-min parallel sample separations with single-base resolution. Forty-eight previously analyzed single-source samples were accurately typed, as confirmed on an ABI Prism 310 and/or the Hitachi FMBIO II. Minor alleles in 3:1 mixture samples containing female and male DNA were reliably typed as well. The instrument produced full profiles from sample DNA down to 0.17 ng, a threshold similar to that found for the ABI 310. Seventeen nonprobative samples from various evidentiary biological stains were also correctly typed. The successful application of the muCAE device to actual forensic STR typing samples is a significant step toward the development of a completely integrated STR analysis microdevice.     

A very short guide to an awful lot

Harmonised Trade Mark Law in Europe By Ulrich Hildebrandt 2005,Cologne: Carl Heymanns Verlag Price: 48, Hardback, ISBN: 3-452-25922-6. pp.150   Dr Ulrich Hildebrandt, a lawyer in private practice in Berlinand a lecturer at the Heinrich-Heine-University in Düsseldorf,has had an interesting and useful idea. In this book he hasproduced a compilation of the case law of the European Courtof Justice interpreting the Council Directive 89/104 to approximatethe laws of the Member States relating to trade marks (includingdecisions     

Renovating the Commons: Swedish health care reforms in perspective

Recent reform experience in Sweden supports the premise that key dimensions of a country's health care system reflect the core social norms and values held by its citizenry. The fundamental structure of the Swedish health system has remained notably consistent over the past half century, that is, tax-based financing and publicly operated hospitals. Yet on other, nearly as important, parameters, there has been substantial change, for example, the persistent pursuit for thirty years of a stronger primary care framework and the effort to allow patient choice of doctor, health center, and hospital within the publicly operated system. This particular combination of continuity and change has occurred as traditional Swedish values of jamlikhet (equality) and trygghet (security) have been challenged in an environment shaped by an aging population, changing medical technology, and Sweden's integration into the European Single Market. This article explores the ongoing process of health system development in Sweden in the context of the country's broader social and cultural characteristics.     

The utility of male domestic violence offender typologies: new directions for research, policy, and practice

The development of empirically based behavioral and psychological typologies provides clear evidence that offenders vary across types. A review and synthesis of the literature reveals three types of batterers common across current typology research-a low, moderate, and high-risk offender. Examination of these types demonstrates that most male offenders do not escalate over time from low to high levels of risk. This observation refutes previous claims regarding a common consensus among researchers that battering escalates in frequency and intensity over time. There are particular characteristics specific to each type that establish thresholds distinct to each classification. Thus, it is unlikely that an offender will move from one type to another. Interventions targeted to address the needs of subsamples of offenders can lead to more effectively protecting those most at risk for future violence. Addressing the issue of woman battering through the prism of typologies has significant implications for research, policy, and practice.     

Randomized experiments as the bronze standard

In this paper, the strengths and weakneses of randomized field experiments are discussed. Although it seems to be common knowledge that random assignment balances experimental and control groups on all confounders, other features of randomized field experiments are somewhat less appreciated. These include the role of random assignment in statistical inference and representations of the mechanisms by which the treatment has its impact. Randomized experiments also have important limitations and are subject to the fidelity with which they are implemented. In the end, randomized field experiments are still the best way to estimate causal effects, but are a considerable distance from perfection.     

Canadian compulsory community treatment laws: recent reforms

This paper addresses the principles underlying compulsory community treatment (CCT) and discusses the different provisions in Canada's twelve jurisdictions. Comparisons with different models of CCT in other countries are also drawn. CCT is not only intended to reduce relapses it is also a "least restrictive" alternative to in-patient detention. Seven of the twelve Canadian mental health acts allow conditional leave from hospital. Two jurisdictions provide community treatment orders, but require two or three previous in-patient admissions. Criteria for CCT, in most jurisdictions, includes that there is a "likelihood of significant mental or physical deterioration". The requirement for previous hospitalization for CCT in Canada, unlike other countries, precludes CCT for use with first episode patients. Some jurisdictions require consent for CCT. Most jurisdictions explicitly state that the services necessary for the CCT conditions must be available.