Estimating Aggregate Policy Reform Effects: New Baselines for Registration, Participation, and Representation

Statistical models are often extended to explore the aggregateimpact of policy reforms. After discussing these techniquesand the incorporation of prediction uncertainty, this articleexamines the effects of registration reform in an analytic frameworkthat explicitly considers the two stages that defined electoralparticipation throughout the 20th century in the United States—registrationand then voting. Using selection bias techniques, the effectsof counterfactual registration reform conditions are exploredon the aggregate level of participation and the nature of representationin the electoral process. These offer a richer baseline of theimpact of policy changes than previous work by directly exploringthe expected level of dropoff in going to the polls by new registrants.Results indicate that the dropoff between registration and votingwould be expected to increase as more individuals become registered.In addition, while turnout due to reforms among projected "newregistrants" shows potentially larger biases than those amongexisting registrants, because of the different bases of registrationthe changes would still lead to a modest reduction in the disparitybetween actual group sizes and their role in elections.     

Validation of chest X-ray comparisons for unknown decedent identification

Comparing skeletal structures between antemortem and postmortem chest radiographs is widely used by forensic specialists from many disciplines to positively identify unknown decedents. However, validity assessments of this method have been fairly limited. This study had three objectives: 1) to quantify the reliability of ante- and postmortem chest radiograph comparison for decedent identification; 2) to identify useful radiologic features supporting decedent identification; and 3) to recognize sources of error in decedent identification related to use of comparative radiographs. A forensic pathologist, a forensic anthropologist, and two radiologists participated in the study. Our results showed that chest radiograph comparisons proved reliable, if basic decedent information was provided, and antemortem and postmortem radiographs were adequately positioned and exposed. A "morphological approach" using normal anatomical structures for comparison may provide the most efficient method for accurate identification.     

Criminal psychological profiling of serial arson crimes

The practice of criminal psychological profiling is frequently cited as being applicable to serial arson crimes. Despite this claim, there does not appear to be any empirical research that examines serial arson offence behaviors in the context of profiling. This study seeks to develop an empirical model of serial arsonist behaviors that can be systematically associated with probable offender characteristics. Analysis has produced a model of offence behaviors that identify four discrete behavior patterns, all of which share a constellation of common nondiscriminatory behaviors. The inherent behavioral themes of each of these patterns are explored with discussion of their broader implications for our understanding of serial arson and directions for future research.     

The Influence of Future Certainty and Contextual Factors on Delinquent Behavior and School Adjustment Among African American Adolescents

This study examined the ability of future certainty—an individual's perception of future stability, operationalized as the likelihood of certain life outcomes–to explain variance in delinquency and school adjustment, while controlling for economic, neighborhood, and family factors, among a cross-sectional sample of 1422 male and 1562 female African American adolescents drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Three kinds of future certainty were examined: future life certainty (e.g., life expectancy), marriage certainty, and college certainty. In hierarchical multiple regression analyses, future certainty and family functioning were stronger predictors than economic and neighborhood variables: neighborhood disorganization and family socioeconomic status. Future life certainty and expectations of attending college were stronger predictors of delinquency among males than females. Marriage certainty was the weakest predictor of the three certainty variables.     

Religiöse Pluralität im nationalen Verfassungsstaat

This article is intended to provide a both functionalist and institutionalist understanding of current conflicts regarding a binding cultural core, religious plurality and multiculturalism, which would allow for an explanation of the corresponding historical process. In order to attain this goal, the functional differentiation and institutional shaping of politics is systematically reconstructed with a special focus on the differentiation of religion and politics, church and state, the handling of religious plurality and the political inclusion of religious minorities. The argument unfolds in the following four steps: (1) emergence of the state’s monopoly of power and the separation of spiritual and worldly power (functionalism I); (2) nation state and popular sovereignty as historical forms of the functional differentiation of politics (functionalism II); (3) the constitution as civil religion of politics organized in state form (institutionalism I); and (4) historical forms of civil religion and the institutionalization of religious plurality (institutionalism II).     

The Impact of Timing of Exposure to Violence on Violent Behavior in a High Poverty Sample of Inner City African American Youth

A growing body of research has linked exposure to violence to violent behavior, but few studies have examined the impact of the timing of exposure to violence on violent behavior among inner city, minority youth. Theoretical insights derived from developmental psychology and psychopathology (DPP) and Agnew’s general strain theory (GST) give contrasting accounts of whether exposure to violence has a short term or long term impact on violent behavior. Five waves of data collected from African American youth living in twelve high poverty inner city neighborhoods was used to examine how the timing of exposure to violence over a four year time period impacts year five violent behavior. Multivariate results support GST’s contention that more proximal exposure to violence has a larger impact on violent behavior. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings for adolescent development in high poverty settings are discussed.

Devolution and Electoral Politics in Scotland and Wales

In this article we examine the impact of devolution on electoralpolitics in Scotland and Wales. After reviewing the electoralhistory of the two territories, we set out the result for the1999 and 2003 devolved elections, noting the substantial differencesbetween voting patterns in these elections from those for theUK parliament. We then go on to consider the main reasons whyvoting patterns differ across the two types of poll. The paperconcludes by summarizing the main findings and then consideringboth the implications of the findings for future devolved electionsand the potential contribution of the study of such electionsto broader theories of voting behavior.     

Public Opinion on U.S. Federal and Intergovernmental Issues in 2006: Continuity and Change

A 2006 trend survey found that Americans most often select localgovernment as giving them the most for their money, followedby the federal and state governments. African Americans aremost supportive of the federal government as giving them themost for their money; Hispanics are most supportive of localgovernment. As in many previous years, the local property taxwas viewed as the worst tax, followed by the federal incometax, state sales tax, and state income tax. Americans displayedreduced trust and confidence in the federal government; however,trust in all three spheres of government—federal, state,and local—dropped between 2004 and 2006, possibly reflectiveof the poor response of all governments to Hurricane Katrina.Analysis of surveys since 1972 reveals that there has been along-term decline in the public's support for the federal governmentand a corresponding increase in support of state and especiallylocal governments.