Letting the good times roll: A theory of voter inference and experimental evidence

This paper examines inference and attribution in a simple and ubiquitous strategic situation: a voter is faced with discerning whether a leader worked on his or her behalf after observing an informative, but noisy signal about the leader's performance. We characterize perfect Bayesian equilibria, quantal response equilibria (QRE), and provide a simple model of a heuristic-based approach, referred to as strategic naivete, within a wide class of such environments. We also discuss experiments conducted to examine human behavior within such an environment. While it is clear that the observed behavior is inconsistent with perfect Bayesian equilibrium, distinguishing between QRE and strategic naivete will require further work. We conclude with a discussion of the broader implications of probabilistic and/or heuristic-based attribution processes for electoral politics and political economy.     

Frontal sinus accuracy in identification as measured by false positives in kin groups

The aims of this study were to verify if frontal sinuses can uniquely identify individuals belonging to family groups using Cameriere methods and to test if kinship can affect the proportion of erroneous identifications. For this purpose, we compared the proportion of false-positive identifications in a sample of 99 individuals within 20 families with a control sample of 98 other individuals without kinship. The results show that the combined use of SOR and the Yoshino code number allows personal identification with a small probability of false positives (p < 10(-6)), even when kinship is taken into account. The present research confirms the importance of studying anthropological frameworks for identification, which leads to reliable methods and allows for both quick and economic procedures.     

Age estimation in children by measurement of carpals and epiphyses of radius and ulna and open apices in teeth: a pilot study

Estimation of skeletal age using radiographic images is widely used in assessing biological growth in clinical and auxological studies. The most frequently used areas for age estimation in children and adolescents are tooth and wrist/hand, both giving good results with only a low level of radiation. This pilot study of a sample of 150 Italian children and adolescents aged between 5 and 15 years focused on analyzing the possible applications of the proportion of carpal area (Ca) and teeth mineralization as a criterion of age estimation. The regression model, describing age as a linear function of gender (g), the ratio between carpal bones area and carpal area (Bo/Ca) and the measurement of open apices, yielded the following equation [Formula in text]. The model explained 93% of the total variance (R(2)=0.93), the median of the absolute values of residuals (observed age minus predicted age) was 0.465 years, with an inter-quartile range (IQR) equalling 0.529 years, and a standard error of estimate of 0.73 years.     

Democracy and the limits of political realism

ABSTRACT

This article explores the recent resurgence of realism in the political sciences, questioning its relevance for democratic theory. Starting from a critical review of recent works in the field, the article calls into question the relevance of empirical investigations of political reality for normative theorizing, and contends that some of the normative conclusions advanced in this literature are not warranted. More precisely, the article questions the reliability of studies of political behavior and of political opinion as a sound basis on which to draw normative inferences about democratic legitimacy. It contends that the kind of epistemic realism their authors promote cannot deliver what it promises. The article concludes by proposing an alternative interpretation of the democratic principle as a practical postulate of political reason that reconciles empirical evidence about political behavior with the classical interpretation of democratic legitimacy.     

The effects of university academic research on firm’s propensity to innovate at local level: evidence from Europe

The Journal of Technology Transfer - Universities have become key elements in building regional innovation systems. However, even though academic research is important when firms choose...     

Before the and of the World(s): Peter Fitzpatrick and the (Inter)national Supplement

Law and Critique - In this article, I argue that Peter Fitzpatrick provides a unique contribution to international studies, most especially to contemporary interdisciplinary studies of...     

Confirmation by LC–MS of drugs in oral fluid obtained from roadside testing

The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of two current on-site oral fluid (OF) drug detection devices (OraLab and Dräger), as part of the Spanish participation in the Roadside Testing Assessment Project (ROSITA Project). The study was done in collaboration with the Spanish Traffic Police, in Galicia (NW Spain), during 2004 and 2005. A total of 468 drivers selected at the police controls agreed to participate through informed consent. In addition, saliva samples were collected and sent to the laboratory to confirm the on-site results. For this purpose, two different analytical liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC–MS) methods were used to detect 11 drugs or metabolites in a 300 μL sample. Simultaneous analysis of morphine, 6-acetylmorphine, amphetamine, methamphetamine, MDA, MDMA, MDEA, MBDB, cocaine and benzoylecgonine was carried out using 100 μL of oral fluid, after an automated solid phase extraction. A different LC–MS method was performed to detect Δ⁹-THC in 200 μL of oral fluid using liquid–liquid extraction with hexane at pH 6. Both methods were fully validated, including linearity (1–250 ng/mL, 2–250 ng/mL) recovery (>50%), within-day and between-day precision (CV < 15%), accuracy (mean relative error < 15%), limit of detection (0.5 and 1 ng/mL), quantitation (1 and 2 ng/mL) and matrix effect. All of the positive cases and a random selection of 30% of the negatives were analyzed for confirmation analysis. Good results (sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value and negative predictive value > 90%) were obtained for cocaine and opiates by OraLab, and for cocaine by Dräger. However, the results for the other compounds could be improved for both detection devices. Differences in the ease of use and in the interpretation mode (visual or instrumental) were observed.