Jurors' use of probabilistic evidence

Mock jurors' use of probabilistic evidence was examined in a fractional factorial design manipulating 7 variables: strength of nonstatistical evidence; quantification of nonstatistical evidence; strength of statistical evidence; combination of 2 pieces of statistical evidence; instruction in use of Bayes' theorem; and presentation of fallacies (both prosecutor's and defense attorney's) concerning use of statistical evidence. One hundred eighty-nine subjects viewed 1 of 16 videotapes presenting a condensed mock trial. Subjects completed dependent measures after each of 4 witnesses and at the end of trial. The strength of both nonstatistical and probabilistic evidence affected verdicts; the other manipulations did not. Overall, subjects slightly underused the probabilistic evidence, as compared to their individualized Bayesian norms, and subjects did not succumb to fallacies. However, subjects greatly varied in over-or underutilization, even after Bayesian instruction. Future research should examine use of weak nonstatistical evidence, and should test different probabilistic instructions.     

Manpower impacts of changes in federal budget priorities

This paper presents the results obtained from computer simulations conducted to determine the sentitivity of occupational employment demands to shifting patterns of U.S. Federal expenditures. The general model utilized is described and the effects of four hypothesized shifts in national priorities upon U. S. manpower requirements in the early 1960's are estimated. Selected occupations are classified and ranked according to their sensitivity to changing patterns of resource allocation between military and civilian activities. From these findings implications for economic and manpower forecasting are derived and discussed.     

The effect of early labor market experience upon internal-external locus of control among young male workers

This study examined the influence of some personal and labor market factors on changes in internal-external control among young male workers. Utilizing 960 respondents from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience's national sample for young men, multiple regression analysis, and an abbreviated version of the Rotter Internal-External Control Scale, this study found that labor market success, race, and employment in the private sector enhance feelings of internal control during the transition between school and work.This paper is a revision of several parts of the author's doctoral dissertation at Washington State University. Financial assistance was provided by the Richard D. Irwin Foundation and the Center for Public Economics at San Diego State University.Received Ph.D. in economics from Washington State University. Major interests are development of human resources and the effects of attitudes on decision making and economic behavior.     

State Corporate and Federal Securities Law: Dual Regulation in a Federal System

Corporate law in the United States involves dual regulation.Although state and federal corporate law typically functionwithout mutual interference, the last thirty years have revealedpotential conflicts, chiefly in two situations. One involvescivil remedies for investors under federal securities statutes;the other is state anti-takeover regulation and its relationshipto the federal Williams Act. The postwar years until 1975 sawperhaps too much reliance on the federal component of corporateregulation. Since 1975, there has been a renaissance of statelaw. Recently, however, appreciation for state regulatory authoritymay have degenerated into hostility to the will of Congress.The authors argue that the core interpretive task in federalsecurities law is preservation of both regimes to maximum effect,because the Congress has expressly declared that state authorityshould continue adjacent to federal regulation.     

Reconstructing post-war Lebanon: A challenge to the liberal peace?

This piece uses the example of reconstruction following the July–August 2006 Israeli–Hezbollah war in Lebanon to reflect on the existence of alternatives to the liberal peace. The term ‘liberal peace’ is used as shorthand for internationally-sponsored peace-support and reconstruction interventions and it is marked by its increasingly formulaic, top–down and ethnocentric nature. Two significant non-western actors were apparent in Lebanon's post-war reconstruction: the Gulf States and Jihad Al Bina (the reconstruction wing of Hezbollah). Using fieldwork, this article examines the extent to which the reconstruction activities of these non-western actors constitute an alternative to the liberal peace. It finds that these activities do not have the critical mass or ambition to form a fully-fledged alternative but argues that they reveal serious limitations in the liberal peace approach to post-war reconstruction.     

Using patent filings to measure innovation

Ever since Bennett Woodcroft compiled his seminal index to theearly English patents, it has been recognized that the emanationsfrom Patent Offices contain a wealth of information. Battelle,in their work on patent trends analysis, revealed that approximately50 per cent of patents are used during their lifetime and that80 per cent of the information obtainable from patents is notavailable from any