Energy and Security in Long-Term Defence Planning: Scenario Analysis for the Swedish Armed Forces

Abstract

The competition for energy resources, as well as the closely related climate change problems, imply a number of global security consequences. A methodology to include energy aspects in long-term defence planning, based on broad civilian scenario approaches, is proposed. The study has been carried out by the Swedish Defence Research Agency, as commissioned by the Swedish Armed Forces, resulting in a number of future mission scenarios highlighting e.g. new challanges and tasks, as well as the need for new capabilities and equipment.     

How the Media Shape Perceptions of Right-Wing Populist Leaders

It is often argued that right-wing populist party leaders are dependent on the media for their public image, which in turn is key for their electoral success. This study tests this assumption by comparing the effects of the media coverage of 2 Dutch right-wing populist leaders with the effects of the coverage of leaders of established parties, in a real-life setting, by tracking campaign developments in the Dutch 2006 national election campaign. We combine panel survey data (n?=?401) with repeated measurements of the party leaders' public images with a systematic content analysis of 17 media outlets (with a total of 1,001 stories), on the basis of the media consumption of individual respondents. Our results show significant effects of the content of media coverage on the public image of political leaders. However, only in 1 case (out of 10) is there a significant difference between right-wing populist party leaders and leaders of other parties in the strength of media effects. It thus seems that leaders of right-wing populist parties are just as dependent upon the media as leaders of other parties. The findings are discussed in the light of extant research on right-wing populist parties and media populism.     

Sexual offenders with learning disabilities: risk,recidivism and treatment

Abstract

While the literature on the assessment, treatment and management of non-learning disabled sexual offenders is well established, it is only in recent years that researchers and clinicians have focused on sexual offenders with learning disabilities. In contrast to mainstream sex offender treatment programmes, there are few evaluated community-based treatment programmes for sexual offenders with learning disabilities, and of the small number of published studies that describe treatment programmes, most are based on small samples and few have been validated empirically. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities differ from their non-disabled counterparts in several important ways, having implications for management and treatment. Due to methodological differences between studies, the prevalence of sexual offending by men with learning disabilities is not clear. However, in some studies, the sexual recidivism rate of offenders with learning disabilities is 6.8 times and 3.5 times that of non-disabled sexual offenders at 2- and 4-years’ follow-up, respectively. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities are also at greater risk of re-offending in a shorter time period. There remains an urgent need for further research into the assessment of risk and whether components from mainstream treatment programmes can be adapted to meet the needs of learning disabled sexual offenders. Approaches to working with sexual offenders with learning disabilities and programme development are discussed.     

Sexually abusive behaviour in juveniles: Deviant and non-deviant pathways

Abstract

In this paper a theoretical framework is presented in an attempt to find an answer to the question of why some juveniles display sexually abusive behaviour and others do not. Until recently, this question has been approached mainly in terms of the presence of psychiatric illness, deviant sexual interests and/or impaired psychosocial development. Empirical research has as yet generally failed to demonstrate this approach to be adequate. It is estimated that only about 40% of juvenile sex offenders appear to show some kind of psychological or developmental deviance. The theoretical framework that is presented here approaches sexual abuse committed by juveniles in terms of normal developmental processes, next to deviant processes. It describes this behaviour, and its presence or absence, as a result of the interaction of biological, psychological and situational factors.     

MEPs and the building of a ‘parliamentary Europe’

The European Parliament (EP) has become significantly more important in the last ten to 15 years. Little attention has thus far been paid, however, to one crucial element in this story: the consistent support of the majority of EP members (MEPs) for a strategy of parliamentary assertiveness. This note investigates the factors influencing MEPs’ behaviour in a series of key parliamentary divisions, where issues concerning the assertiveness of the parliament were at question. Contrary to much speculation, more experienced MEPs do not appear to become socialised into more hard‐line attitudes. Rather, factors relating to members’ partisan status and nationality are the major determinants of support for enhancing the status of the EP. The findings are argued to suggest important implications for both the EP and the European Union as a whole.     

Lawmaking and News Making: Different Worlds after all? A Study on News Coverage of Legislative Processes in the Netherlands

Over the last decades the importance of the media for understanding the functioning of democracy in the contemporary world has become evident. Yet despite the developing body of knowledge on political communication and newsworthiness there is little research about why and how the media cover legislative processes in a European context. Therefore this study analyses media coverage of lawmaking in the Netherlands and investigates which characteristics of legislation influence the amount of news coverage. It shows that only one out of five laws is covered at all and that no more than one out of 10 laws receives substantial media attention. This leads to the question why some laws get extensive news attention, whereas most laws are completely ignored. Press coverage for the legislative process turns out to be both selective and predictable. Traditional news values such as political conflict and significance are good predictors of media coverage for lawmaking. In addition, laws are largely ignored when they are part of the budgetary cycle.     

Labour of love: Female juvenile prostitution in the Netherlands

Summary

Although the number of young prostitutes increases, little systematic research has been undertaken to gain more insight into the trafficking of these young women. The main object of the present study was to describe the processes (that is, grooming, incorporation, and maintenance) that underlie the trafficking of young women for prostitution. Police records of 16 adolescent prostitutes were analysed. Results show that these prostitutes were recruited by so-called ‘lover boys’ who applied various seduction techniques to make the vulnerable young women fall in love with them. In general, the young women were incorporated into prostitution by means of physical violence. To protect and secure their income and organization, the pimps used a wide range of power and control tactics, of which the use of physical violence can be considered the most effective.     

How Europe’s Political Leaders Made Sense of the Euro Crisis: The Influence of Pressure and Personality

The Greek announcement of its excessive debts led to one of the most severe crises the EU has faced since its inception. The crisis soon evolved into a full leadership crisis as European political leaders struggled to come up with a common solution to the challenges they faced. Theories of leadership and crisis management identify several factors that may contribute to these differences. This article examines to what extent leaders’ personal traits and external pressure influenced how six political leaders made sense of the situation. The study finds that a leader’s belief that they can control events, their self-confidence, as well as economic pressure provide a partial explanation of how European leaders make sense of the crisis. The traits of cognitive complexity and openness to information do not exert an influence in the cases discussed here. These findings indicate that any comprehensive understanding of how leaders make sense of crises should take note of specific individual as well as contextual factors.