The effects of delay on voice recognition accuracy

Two experiments were conducted in which 176 listeners heard male and female objectively defined high- and low-recognition voices and then attempted to identify these voices from a voice parade containing 20 distractors after either 10, 40, 100, or 130 minutes (experiment 1), or 10 minutes, one day, seven days, or 14 days (experiment 2). In experiment 1 delay had no overall effect, although further analysis revealed that the shortest delay did produce better performance than all other delay conditions. Further, high-recognition voices were better identified than low-recognition voices. In experiment 2 delay had an overall effect, with the shortest delay interval again being significantly better than all other conditions, which did not differ among themselves. High- and low-recognition voices, however, did not exhibit a statistically significant difference, although these two factors entered into a marginally significant interaction. Theoretical speculation and forensic implications were drawn.This research was funded by the British Home Office, research grant no. RES 741/1/1, although the views expressed are not necessarily those of the funding body.     

Fiscal Planning, Budgeting, and Rebudgeting Using Revenue Semaphores

Revenue forecasts play an important role in the state government budget and policy process. These forecasts are generally reported to executive and legislative leaders as point estimates, with no acknowledgment of their corresponding risk and uncertainty. The revenue semaphores proposed in this article outline procedures by which revenue uncertainty directly influences the planning process. The goal is not to make forecasts more accurate, but to make discussions of budget and revenue alternatives more comprehensive. Explicitly incorporating risk and uncertainty measures into the budgeting process increases the degree of real-time budgeting and reduces some adverse effects of budget revisions after the fiscal year begins. The discussion occurs in the context of budget control, management, and policy making.     

Measuring party orientations towards European integration: Results from an expert survey

Abstract Some observers have held that political parties have been minor players in the process of European integration due to the low salience of the issue and the prevalence of intra party disagreement over European questions. Although recent scholarship and the rising salience of European issues have brought increased attention to the role of political parties, the study of the relationship between party positions and both public opinion and policy outcomes has been hampered by an absence of comparable data on party positions. This research note presents the findings of an expert survey on party positions on the issue of European integration. In addition to estimates of the parties' positions on the issue itself, this survey provides information on the importance of the issue of European integration to each party, and the extent of internal dissent within parties. The data also indicate that parties have, on average, become increasingly pro–European over the period 1984–1996. Both the salience of the issue of integration and the extent of intra–party disagreement have increased during this period. However, deep intra–party divisions appear less prevalent than commonly believed.     

Rational Choice,Agency and Thoughtfully Reflective Decision Making: The Short and Long-Term Consequences of Making Good Choices

Notions of human agency are a prominent part of some but not all criminological theories. For example, McCarthy (Annu Rev Sociol 28:417–442, 2002) argues that rational choice theory, which allows persons great involvement in decision making, is more congenial with notions of human agency than others. It would appear from his argument that rational choice theory offers fertile ground to develop a clearly defined role for human agency in criminal behavior. In this paper we have taken up McCarthy’s view and argue that an important part of what is human agency consists of thoughtfully reflective decision making. We outline four elements of thoughtfully reflective decision making, and claim that it is a characteristic that varies both across persons and within persons over time. It is in short the process by which good decisions are made because by using this process one increases the likelihood that choices made will be consistent with preferences. We develop a clear operational definition of thoughtfully reflective decision making and link it to the concept of human agency. We also articulate testable hypotheses about the short-term and longer-term implications of thoughtfully reflective decision making. We conclude with a discussion of what we think lies ahead for future conceptual and empirical work.

What’s in an MSW? Graduate education for public child welfare workers,intention, engagement,and work environment

ABSTRACT

This study employs a mixed methods analysis of exit survey data gathered from public child welfare employees at their completion of a Title IV-E funded MSW program, distinct because it was initiated during a period of major reform and permitted students to continue employment during their studies. Findings suggest that opportunities for growth and manageable levels of stress were associated with intentions to stay and engagement with the work, reflected in respondents’ positive perceptions of their roles in the work environment and their retrospective assessments of the impact of their social work education.     

The Relationship between Homelessness and Behavior Problems among Youth in North Texas: a Brief Report

This study sought to examine the relationship between homelessness and behavior problems among a community-based sample of youth in North Texas. Data were obtained from a cross-sectional, probability sample of households and a targeted sample of homeless families in Dallas, Texas, with children older than 5 years old (N?=?5232). Parents were asked to report five behavior problems on behalf of their children including arrest or trouble with police, academic problems, behavior problems at school, suspension, and suicide attempts. Logistic and negative binomial regression procedures were used to examine the relationship between homelessness and behavior problems. Youth exposed to homelessness were 36% (OR?=?1.63; 95% CI 1.00–1.85) more likely to exhibit any kind of behavior problems than youth who had never experienced homelessness. Homeless youth had 5.51 times the odds of arrest (95% CI 2.60–11.68), 1.74 times the odds of academic problems (95% CI 1.24–2.43), and more than 3 times the odds of suicide attempts (95% CI 1.46, 7.61) than youth who had never been homeless. Homelessness was associated with higher rates of problem behavior, including arrests, academic problems, and suicide attempts. Because homeless youth are commonly enrolled in school and present at health care clinics and emergency departments, clinics and schools may aid in the identification of homeless youth, as well as referral to care. In this way, clinicians may help reduce the burden of behavioral problems that disproportionately affect homeless youth.     

Modeling Change in Perceptions about Sanction Threats: The Neglected Linkage in Deterrence Theory

Deterrence theory describes a process of offender decision making that consists of two linkages—one in which official sanctions and other information affect a would-be offenders perceptions about the risks of criminal conduct, and another in which such perceptions influence the decision whether or not to offend. Decades worth of empirical research has concentrated virtually exclusively on this latter linkage, and in so doing, has produced an incomplete account of the deterrence process. This article develops a model of how perceptions of sanction certainty are modified in response to an individuals involvement in criminal activity and the consequences (if any) therefrom. Implications of the model are tested with data from a multi-wave, panel survey of 1,530 high school students from the southeastern U.S. Key findings include: the manner in which new information affects perceived certainty depends on the level of perceived certainty before the new information is received, and the extent of peer offending was one of the most influential factors in determining change in perceived sanction certainty over time.     

The effect of economic events on votes for president: 1984 update

In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have remarkable explanatory power. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election.     

The analysis of an intracerebral hematoma for drugs of abuse

Toxicological investigations were performed on an intracerebral hematoma, antemortem blood, and postmortem blood of an individual who was found unresponsive in his home. The hematoma was found to have ethanol at a concentration of 0.05% (w/v), and benzoylecgonine (a cocaine metabolite) was also confirmed at a concentration of 0.43 mg/L by specific analysis using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). These results enabled the pathologist to record the cause of death as intracerebral hemorrhage due to acute cocaine intoxication.