Russia,Ukraine, and the Imperial Legacy

Three specialists in social services present an assessment of Hungary's performance during the economic transition from the perspective of social policy and the general welfare of the population. Using figures drawn from a variety of European sources, they offer a review of social expenditure, labor market tendencies, and the social security, health and education systems, comparing throughout with data from the Czech Republic, Poland and the European Union.     

Forecasting the 2005 General Election: A Neural Network Approach

Although neural networks are increasingly used in a variety of disciplines there are few applications in political science. Approaches to electoral forecasting traditionally employ some form of linear regression modelling. By contrast, neural networks offer the opportunity to consider also the non-linear aspects of the process, promising a better performance, efficacy and flexibility. The initial development of this approach preceded the 2001 general election and models correctly predicted a Labour victory. The original data used for training and testing the network were based on the responses of two experts to a set of questions covering each general election held since 1835 up to 1997. To bring the model up to date, 2001 election data were added to the training set and two separate neural networks were trained using the views of our original two experts. To generate a forecast for the forthcoming general election, answers to the same questions about the performance of parties during the current parliament, obtained from a further 35 expert respondents, were offered to the neural networks. Both models, with slightly different probabilities, forecast another Labour victory. Modelling electoral forecasts using neural networks is at an early stage of development but the method is to be adapted to forecast party shares in local council elections. The greater frequency of such elections will offer better opportunities for training and testing the neural networks.     

The influence of ethanol on the level of ketone bodies in hypothermia

Presently available possibilities of macro- and microscopic diagnosis of death from hypothermia are very limited as the changes observed are either weakly specific (ecchymoses in the mucous membrane of the stomach, histological features of haemorrhagic pancreatic necrosis, cardiomyocyte necrosis or decreased content of glycogen in hepatocytes) or represent only local action of low temperatures (frostbites, violet patches in the region of knees and elbows, red livores) and they may not be present in cases of death from cooling at environmental temperature close to zero or higher.The study evaluated the usefulness of acetoacetic acid (Ac-Ac), beta-hydroxybutyric acid (beta-HBA) and acetone determinations in blood, urine and vitreous humour for diagnosis of death from hypothermia. These three substances called ketone bodies, are easily assimilated energetic substrates that get oxidized preferentially before glucose and fatty acids. In hypoglycaemia (also hypothermia-induced one), the tissues dependent on glucose (e.g. the brain) cover most of their energetic needs from oxidation of these compounds.The analysis of 16 cases of death in circumstances suggesting hypothermia (mainly of the alcohol abusers) showed that the degree of ketosis was inversely proportional to the blood ethanol concentration. This relation may result from stimulation of insulin release and a decrease in the release of its antagonists by ethanol, as well as from inhibition of free fatty acid (FFA) beta-oxidation due to increase in the NADH/NAD ratio. So, the antiketonaemic effects of ethanol (together with its influence on the dilatation of the peripheral vessels and inhibition of shivering thermogenesis by muscle relaxation), explain increased sensitivity of intoxicated persons to low temperatures.     

What does cost-benefit analysis add to decision making? Evidence from the criminal justice literature

This paper asks whether undertaking a cost-benefit analysis provides additional information to policy makers as compared to an analysis solely of the effect of an intervention. A literature review identified 106 evaluations of criminal justice interventions that reported both an effect size and measures of net benefit. Data on net benefit and effect size were extracted from these studies. We found that effect size is only weakly related to net benefits. The rank order of net benefits and effect size are minimally correlated. Furthermore, we found that the two analytic methods would yield opposing policy recommendations for more than one in four interventions. These bi-variate findings are supported by the results of multivariate models. However, further research is needed to verify the accuracy of the standard errors on net benefit estimates, so these models must be interpreted with caution.

Meet the critics: Analyzing the EU Commission's Regulatory Scrutiny Board through quantitative text analysis

As part of the “better regulation” agenda, the European Commission created a semi-independent institution, the Regulatory Scrutiny Board, to monitor the preparation of policy proposals. The position of this Board is potentially wide-ranging. A proposal that is not given the green light by it cannot proceed in the Commission's internal decisionmaking process. But so far, the Board has only received scant scholarly attention. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the Regulatory Scrutiny Board on the Commission's policy preparation. Using machine learning techniques and quantitative text analysis, we study 673 Board opinions and compare almost 100 draft and final policy proposals. Our findings show that the Board is an active watchdog that is taken seriously by the Commission's departments. A full understanding of policy preparation in the EU therefore requires more scholarly attention to the Regulatory Scrutiny Board.