A Good Place to Bury Bad News? Hiding the Detail in the Geography on the Labour Party’s Website

But actually, he thought as he re–adjusted the Ministry of Plenty's figures, it was not even forgery. It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another. Most of the material that you were dealing with had no connexion with anything in the real world, not even the kind of connexion that is contained in a direct lie. Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version.     

Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients

The actuarial Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) was developed for male offenders where it has shown excellent replicability in many new forensic samples using officially recorded outcomes. Clinicians also make decisions, however, about the risk of interpersonal violence posed by nonforensic psychiatric patients of both sexes. Could an actuarial risk assessment developed for male forensic populations be used for a broader clientele? We modified the VRAG to permit evaluation using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study that included nonforensic male and female patients and primarily self-reported violence. The modified VRAG yielded a large effect size in the prediction of dichotomous postdischarge severe violence over 20 and 50 weeks. Accuracy of VRAG predictions was unrelated to sex. The results provide evidence about the robustness of comprehensive actuarial risk assessments and the generality of the personal factors that underlie violent behavior.     

Reliable, sensitive, rapid and quantitative enzyme-based assay for gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB)

Several assays for gamma-hydroxybutyrate (4-hydroxybutyrate, GHB) have been developed based on the enzyme gamma-hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (GHB-DH). Enzymatic oxidation of GHB by NAD+ is coupled to diaphorase-mediated reduction of pro-dye to yield colored product. GHB-DH from Ralstonia eutropha was cloned and expressed as a stable fusion protein easily purified by affinity chromatography. Quantitative initial velocity and endpoint versions of the assay in solution are described. Michaelis-Menten parameters for oxidation of GHB and ethanol were estimated. A semi-quantitative "dipstick" version of the assay on paper also is described. Both solution endpoint and "dipstick" assays are sensitive to about 0.05 mg GHB/mL using 10 microL of sample. Ethanol at concentrations possible in urine and agents used to stabilize physiological fluids for forensics analysis do not interfere significantly. The "dipstick" assay also allows detection of GHB in alcoholic beverages after evaporation of about one-fourth drop of beverage before testing. The enzymatic assay for GHB is reliable, sensitive, inexpensive and rapid.     

Enhanced kinship analysis and STR-based DNA typing for human identification in mass fatality incidents: the Swissair flight 111 disaster

A bioinformatic tool was developed to assist with the victim identification initiative that followed the Swissair Flight 111 disaster. Making use of short tandem repeat (STR) DNA typing data generated with AmpFlSTR Profiler Plus (PP) and AmpFlSTR COfiler(CO) kits, the software systematically compared each available STR genotype with every other genotype. The matching algorithm was based on the search for: (i) direct matches to genotypes derived from personal effects; and (ii) potential kinship associations between victims and next-of-kin, as measured by allele sharing at individual loci. The software greatly assisted parentage analysis by enabling kinship evaluation in situations where complete parentage trios were unavailable and, in some situations, with distantly related relatives. Exclusion of fortuitous kinship associations (FKA) was made possible through the recovery at the disaster site of at least one remains for every sought-after victim, and was incorporated into the kinship software. The data from the 13 combined STR loci produced 6 and 23 times fewer FKAs when compared with PP alone and AmpFlSTR Profiler (PR) alone, respectively. Identification leads or confirmations of identification were obtained for 218 victims for which DNA reference samples (personal effects and kin) had been submitted. Confirmation of an inferred kinship association was sought through frequency and likelihood calculations, as well as corroborative data from other identification modalities. The use of a simple, yet powerful, automated genotype comparison approach and the use of megaplexes with high power of discrimination (PD) values extended considerably the identification capabilities in the case of the Swissair disaster. The DNA typing identification modality proved to be a valuable component of the large arsenal of identification tools deployed in the aftermath of this disaster.     

Systematic analysis of stutter percentages and allele peak height and peak area ratios at heterozygous STR loci for forensic casework and database samples

To assist the interpretation of STR DNA typing results from forensic casework samples containing mixtures, the range of heterozygous allele peak height and peak area ratios (HR) and stutter percentages (stutter %) for the loci comprised in the AmpFlSTR Profiler Plus (PP) kit were assessed on 468 database and 275 casework single source samples. Stutter % medians were similar for database and casework samples, ranging from 2% to 7%. The upper limit of the stutter value range was 16%, calculated as median +3 SD, although lower locus-specific values could be used. HR medians were 93 +/- 6.5% for database samples, 88 +/- 12% for casework samples. For casework samples, the maximum signal imbalance noted was 52%, calculated as median -3 SD. No significant difference was observed between peak height and peak area calculated values. This study shows the importance of selecting the proper reference database for the establishment of HR threshold values.