A model for disaggregating political change

We present a model for identifying the components of aggregate change in an electorate between two points in time. When the electorate is constant in size, change in the mean opinion disaggregates into two components: conversion among those who continue to participate in the electorate (Stayers), and replacement of those who drop out of the electorate at Time₁ (Dropouts) by Newcomers to the electorate at Time₂. We add to this simple formulation the possibility of variation in the size of the electorate. When an electorate expands, the model includes a mobilization term to accommodate the fact that there are more Newcomers at Time₂ than Dropouts at Time₁. When an electorate shrinks in size, the demobilization term reflects the fact that Newcomers as a group are smaller than Dropouts. The model includes appropriate weights for each component so that the change in opinion (or any other aggregate characteristic in the electorate) can be allocated across the three components. We apply the model to Iowa caucus attenders in both parties between 1984 and 1988, and we suggest that the model can be also productively applied to a variety of contexts besides nomination politics, where fluctuations in the size of electorates are significant.Ronald B. Rapoport. College of William and Mary.     

Myth and American politics

Accumulating tensions call into question the sustainability of the American political system, which ultimately depends on public faith in the justifying myth. This article takes sustainability as a policy problem, and attempts to reconstruct the significance of recent, scattered events in American politics from the standpoint of central theory in the policy sciences. The resulting construct emphasizes the significance of intellectuals in the decision processes of modern society and the continuing task of the policy sciences.     

Selective attention and self-control in delinquent adolescents

Research studies are briefly reviewed to examine the hypothesis that delinquent adolescents may process information in a different manner than non-delinquents. Studies suggest that delinquents may have less control over which information they attend to, may expose themselves to more stimulation, may process information more slowly, and may selectively attend to different information than matched controls. Findings from a recent study are presented in support of the latter hypothesis. A clinical example illustrates how these attention differences may appear in the course of treatment.This work was conducted while Dr. Rosenthal was a Clinical Research Training Fellow in Adolescence in a program jointly sponsored by the Adolescent Program of the Illinois State Psychiatric Institute, the Institute for Psychosomatic and Psychiatric Research and Training at Michael Reese Hospital and Medical Center, and by the Departments of Behavioral Science (Human Development) and Psychiatry of the University of Chicago. The training program was funded by Public Health Service grant T32MH14668.A version of this paper was presented at the Conference on the Psychology of Adolescence, Chicago, June 20–21, 1980. Portions of this article are based upon the doctoral dissertation submitted by Frank Lani in partial fulfillment of the Ph.D. degree, Loyola University, Chicago, Illinois.Received his Ph.D. in clinical psychology at Vanderbilt University. Current research interests include delinquency, hyperkinesis, and evaluation of hospital treatment.Received his Ph.D. in clinical psychology at Loyola University. Current research interests include social cognition in delinquency.     

An Empirical Test of the Behaviour Analysis Interview

The present experiment is the first empirical test of the Behaviour Analysis Interview (BAI), an interview technique developed by F. E. Inbau, J. E. Reid, J. P. Buckley, & B. C. Jayne (2001) designed to evoke different verbal and non-verbal responses from liars and truth-tellers. Inbau et al. expect liars to be less helpful than truth-tellers in investigations and to exhibit more nervous behaviours. Just the opposite predictions, however, follow from the deception literature, which notes that liars take their credibility less for granted and are therefore more aware of their responses and their impact on others. This suggests that liars' answers should be more helpful than truth-tellers' answers, and liars' non-verbal responses should appear more relaxed than truth-tellers' non-verbal responses. In the present experiment, 40 participants (undergraduate students) lied or told the truth about an event during a BAI interview. The interviews were coded according to Inbau et al.'s guidelines. The results showed that, compared to liars, truth-tellers (a) were more naive and evasive when explaining the purpose of the interview, and (b) were less likely to name someone who they felt certain did not commit the crime. Truth-tellers also exhibited more nervous behaviours. The results were consistent with the predictions of the deception literature, and directly opposed to the predictions of BAI.     

Competence to Waive Interrogation Rights and Adjudicative Competence in Adolescent Defendants: Cognitive Development,Attorney Contact,and Psychological Symptoms

Although there is growing evidence of developmental differences in competency to waive interrogation rights and adjudicative competence, the correlates of adolescents' legal capacities remain unclear. This study examined the relationship of legal capacities to cognitive development, legal learning opportunities, and psychological symptoms. Participants were 152 male and female defendants aged 11–17, who completed Grisso's Instruments for Assessing Understanding and Appreciation of Miranda Rights, the Fitness Interview Test (Revised Edition), the Woodcock-Johnson III Cognitive Assessment Battery, and the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale for Children. Legal capacities relevant to interrogation and adjudication increased with age. These developmental differences were partially mediated or explained by cognitive development. Of the specific cognitive ilities examined (general intellectual ability, verbal ability, reasoning, long-term retrieval, attention, and executive functioning), verbal ability was a particularly strong predictor of performance on competency measures. Also, defendants obtained lower scores on competency measures if they showed evidence of attention deficits or hyperactivity, had spent limited time with their attorneys, and/or were from low socioeconomic backgrounds.     

Participation patterns at the 1998–2003 Southern Criminal Justice Association annual meetings

This paper examines the distance participants were willing to travel to attend the 1998–2003 Southern Criminal Justice Association annual meeting sites. The authors evaluate whether holding the conference at various locations throughout the region impacts individual participation, membership, and institutional representation. The findings reveal that conference sites that require greater travel have lower attendance and do not capture new members. However, the strength of offerings and tourist attractions can offset the negative impact of greater travel. The analysis also identifies a core group of members who show up at the meetings no matter where they are held. Finally, the conferences do not attract much local interest. Recommendations that would enhance attendance at regional meetings are advanced.     

Demokratisierung und Freiheitsstreben: Die Perspektive der Humanentwicklung

Much of the literature on democratic transitions presumes that mass attitudes are important for the consolidation of democracies but not for the process of democratization. We challenge this premise on the basis of human development theory. From the perspective of this theory, democratization is an emancipative achievement that should be fuelled by broader emancipative forces among the population. Using the Values Surveys we measure these emancipative forces by people’s liberty aspirations, showing that mass liberty aspirations have a causal effect on a society’s democratic development. No other factor, not GDP/capita and not social capital, can explain away the effect of liberty aspirations on democratization. We conclude that human development theory illuminates emancipative forces in democratization that have so far been neglected.     

Professional insecurities: A guide to understanding and career management

Professional insecurities include the expectation that ones job or career, and all that depends upon it, are at risk through denial of tenure, dismissal from an official position, or other sanctions for non-compliance with established practices. The expanding subdivision of work in modern society exacerbates professional insecurities by precipitating conflicts of conscience and by proliferating practices that are often ambiguous and incompatible, but nevertheless must be taken seriously because they are expected to be enforced with severe sanctions. This article suggests how the problem of professional insecurities might be understood and managed by aspiring policy scientists especially, and by others as well. There are no universal or final solutions to the problem, but there are better working solutions for particular persons and situations if we are intelligent enough to find them through applications of central theory.     

Anguish and despair in adolescents with eating disorders--helping to manage suicidal ideation and impulses

Adolescents struggling against anorexia nervosa or bulimia nervosa often experience self-punishing thoughts and behaviors, including self-mutilation, and suicidal ideation and attempts. These arise out of the profound anguish and despair frequently experienced by these young people. This paper outlines four particularly salient clinical themes underlying this despair that have significant implications for treatment. A practice perspective is discussed which emphasizes empathic listening and the development of a strong therapeutic alliance with the adolescent. Treatment recommendations draw from narrative theory and practice, and from feminist perspectives. The paper also draws on cognitive therapy and on recent developments in the areas of spirituality and motivational enhancement. Involving the distressed adolescent's family is also addressed.