证据与推论——兼论概率与似真性(英文)

今天的讲座和前四讲有一些不同。在前四讲中,我所分析的都是证据法的公认领域,试图说明我们何以能够通过运用各种分析工具来更深刻地理解它们。今天我不想讨论证据法的传统领域,而要讨论在美国和其他几个国家正在进行的一项重要研究工作,这涉及我们所称的司法证明的性质。该研究领域并不论及像传闻规则那样的证据法特定领域,而是关于证据法根基的探讨。     

International Plug 'n Play? Citizen Activism, the Internet, and Global Public Policy

One of the most dramatic changes in world politics has been the rise to prominence of citizen networks. Among the many factors responsible for their emergence are new communication technologies, and in particular the World-Wide Web. Opinions on the nature and significance of these citizen networks, however, are mixed. Some applaud citizen networks as potential counter-hegemonic forces and expressions of democratic participation. Others see them, on the contrary, as undemocratic and largely destructive. Straddling both of these views is a third argument that suggests "real" communities cannot be sustained on the Internet, hence calling into question the long-term viability of citizen networks as actors on the world political stage. To help push these debates further, this article examines the case of the citizen networks that emerged to lobby against the Multilateral Agreement on Investments, focusing in particular on how the Internet played a part in the opposition movement. The case suggests that, contrary to those who see new media as an obstacle to global citizen etworks, the Internet and World-Wide Web greatly facilitated their activities. As a consequence, citizen networks will likely continue to grow and expand, intruding into international policymaking processes. The article concludes by examining several global public policy issues that are raised by this shift in the landscape of world politics that will have to be addressed by practitioners of international relations in years to come.     

Towards secure quadratic voting

We provide an overview of some of the security issues involved in securely implementing Lalley and Weyl’s “Quadratic Voting” (Lalley and Weyl, Quadratic voting, 2016), and suggest some possible implementation architectures. Our proposals blend end-to-end verifiable voting methods with anonymous payments. We also consider new refund rules for quadratic voting, such as a “lottery” method.     

Depression,Anxiety, and Peer Victimization: Bidirectional Relationships and Associated Outcomes Transitioning from Childhood to Adolescence

Experiences of depression, anxiety, and peer victimization have each been found to predict one another, and to predict negative outcomes in the domains of school connectedness, social functioning, quality of life, and physical health. However, the common co-occurrence of depression, anxiety, and peer victimization experiences has made it difficult to disentangle their unique roles in these associations. The present study thus sought to characterize the precise nature of the bidirectional relationships between depressive symptoms, anxiety, and victimization over time, and to examine their unique sequelae during the transition from childhood to early adolescence. Longitudinal multi-informant (child-reported, parent-reported, and teacher-reported) data from a nationally representative sample were analyzed using path analysis when the study child was aged 10–11 (n=?4169; M_age?=?10.3; 48.8% female) and aged 12–13 (n=?3956; M_age?=?12.4; 48.2% female). Depressive symptoms, anxiety, and peer victimization had small but significant unique bidirectional relationships. All three constructs also uniquely and prospectively predicted poorer life functioning across all domains examined. These results demonstrate that current interventions should broaden their scope to simultaneously target depression, anxiety, and peer victimization, as each of these experiences independently act as additive risk factors for subsequent negative outcomes.

     

Health Literacy in High-Risk Youth: A Descriptive Study of Children in Residential Care

Although previous studies have demonstrated that children in out-of-home care present with elevated levels of mental and physical health, educational, and behavioral problems, little is known about youth's ability to manage health care needs or access health information and support. This study evaluates the health literacy skills of 229 youth served in a residential setting. Results revealed that the majority of youth demonstrated some level of risk, and anywhere from one-quarter to one-third demonstrated significant health literacy deficits suggesting a need for additional research and treatment intervention. Implications, study limitations, and recommendations for practice and future research are discussed.     

Evaluating Capital Management: A New Approach

The objective of this article is to develop a methodology for evaluating capital management performance. We have employed a new methodology, fuzzy rule–based systems (FRBS), that allows evaluators to break down complex systems into manageable components. FRBS can also use a variety of data types by converting data into ordinal input measures that are not overly sensitive to small measurement errors. In developing an overall performance measure, the evaluator under an FRBS creates explicit rules for combining inputs that can reflect the complex contextual judgments commonly made by evaluators. Using survey data on 35 large American cities from the Government Performance Project, we develop an FRBS for city capital management.     

Longitudinal Associations between Coping Strategies and Psychopathology in Pre-adolescence

Journal of Youth and Adolescence - Much of the literature investigating the association between coping and psychopathology is cross-sectional, or associations have been investigated in a...