The “new” view of investment decisions and public policy analysis: An application to green lights and cold refrigerators

Recent research in investment theory emphasizes the importance of sunk investment costs, uncertainty in returns, and flexibility in investment timing. Allowing for the presence of these characteristics alters traditional discounted cash flow rules for when to invest. Those rules will recommend investing at lower rate-of-retum thresholds than is optimal. This article describes this research and suggests the range of potential situations to which the theory applies. It also discusses the implications for policy analysis and suggests that government programs to encourage investment may, in some cases, be inappropriate. After discussing a wide array of possible applications, we focus on one in particular: programs to encourage energy-efficient investment. The examples suggest the importance of applying the new investment theory for economic analysis of investment in energy-efficient technologies.     

Evaluation of technology transfer by peer review

We report the outcome of an experiment in the field of program evaluation. Because of the rapid outward growth of technology transfer from federally funded laboratories, it was judged necessary to devise a new, yet effective, way of evaluating technology transfer programs and comparing them to conventional research and development projects. Specifically, technology transfer projects within the High-Temperature Superconductivity program of the Department of Energy were subjected to peer review evaluation by a panel of researchers who themselves conduct technology transfer activities. The evaluation criteria and procedures resembled those used for peer review of basic research, but were adapted to the characteristics of technology transfer projects. We include both the viewpoints of a laboratory being evaluated and of the panel chairman. We comment on the degree of success of this evaluation, and draw some conclusions about how it might be modified for the future.     

Competing Approaches to the Study of American Federalism and Intergovernmental Relations

The development of theory in the study of American federalismand intergovernmental relations has long been marked by divergentapproaches. This article reviews the literature produced byfive "schools" within the field: (1) dual federalism, (2) cooperativefederalism, (3) pragmatic federalism, (4) noncentralized federalism,and (5) nation-centered federalism. As different as these approachesare, scholarly work in this field has made only sparing useof two other potentially useful approaches: distributive justiceand public choice theory. This article suggests how these alternateapproaches might contribute to reinvigorating a field that appearsto be otherwise at an intellectual impasse.     

Al Qaeda as a Dune Organization: Toward a Typology of Islamic Terrorist Organizations

Al Qaeda and its affiliated groups offer the analyst a highly complex challenge. The current literature classifies Islamic terrorist organizations as either networked or hierarchical. Yet, this classification fails to account for the appearance on the international stage of a new type of global terrorism. Most notably, it does not capture the structure and mode of operation of Al Qaeda as it emerged after the 2001 U.S.-led assault on Afghanistan. This article therefore introduces a new conceptthe Dune organizationthat is distinct from other organizational modes of thinking. This conceptualization leads to a new typology of Islamic terrorist organizations. This typology concentrates on organizational behavior patterns and provides a framework for a comparative analysis of terrorist movements, which is applied to a study of Al Qaeda, Hizballah, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.     

Cognitive issues in fingerprint analysis: inter- and intra-expert consistency and the effect of a 'target' comparison

Deciding whether two fingerprint marks originate from the same source requires examination and comparison of their features. Many cognitive factors play a major role in such information processing. In this paper we examined the consistency (both between- and within-experts) in the analysis of latent marks, and whether the presence of a 'target' comparison print affects this analysis. Our findings showed that the context of a comparison print affected analysis of the latent mark, possibly influencing allocation of attention, visual search, and threshold for determining a 'signal'. We also found that even without the context of the comparison print there was still a lack of consistency in analysing latent marks. Not only was this reflected by inconsistency between different experts, but the same experts at different times were inconsistent with their own analysis. However, the characterization of these inconsistencies depends on the standard and definition of what constitutes inconsistent. Furthermore, these effects were not uniform; the lack of consistency varied across fingerprints and experts. We propose solutions to mediate variability in the analysis of friction ridge skin.     

Legal Regime and Contractual Flexibility: A Comparison of Business's Organizational Choices in France and the United States during the Era of Industrialization

We compare the law governing business organizational forms inFrance and the United States during the nineteenth century andfind that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, the contractingenvironment in the U.S. was neither freer nor more flexiblethan in France. U.S. businesses had a more limited menu of organizationalchoices and also much less ability to adapt the basic formsto meet their needs. Moreover, American law did not evolve anymore readily in response to economic change than French law.In both nations, major changes in the rules governing organizationalforms required the passage of new statutes.     

Meta-analytically quantifying the reliability and biasability of forensic experts

Abstract:  In this paper we employ meta-analytic procedures and estimate effect sizes indexing the degree of reliability and biasability of forensic experts. The data are based on within-expert comparisons, whereby the same expert unknowingly makes judgments on the same data at different times. This allows us to take robust measurements and conduct analyses that compare variances within the same experts, and thus to carefully quantify the degree of consistency and objectivity that underlie expert performance and decision making. To achieve consistency, experts must be reliable, at least in the very basic sense that an expert makes the same decision when the same data are presented in the same circumstances, and thus be consistent with themselves. To achieve objectivity, experts must focus only on the data and ignore irrelevant information, and thus be unbiasable by extraneous context. The analyses show that experts are not totally reliable nor are they unbiasable. These findings are based on fingerprint experts decision making, but because this domain is so well established, they apply equally well (if not more) to all other less established forensic domains.