Evaluating provincial budgetary policy

Abstract: This paper reviews the period 1965-84, providing an analysis of the contribution of provincial budgets to regional stabilization and the impact of budgets on the financial position of provincial governments. The perversity hypothesis, which proposes that provincial budgetary behaviour may serve to exacerbate rather than reduce cyclical swings in local economies, is examined. An effort is made to differentiate between the automatic and discretionary components of provincial budgets, by calculating cyclically and inflation-adjusted revenues, expenditures and budget balances. A budget balance analysis arrives at the following conclusions: the behaviour of provincial budgets, including both automatic and discretionary components, was stabilizing, for the most part, during the study period; however, in most cases, discretionary budgetary policy was perverse. A regression analysis arrives at the following conclusions: in Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, both revenue and expenditure policy demonstrated neutral cyclical behaviour during the study period; in Nova Scotia and British Columbia, destabilizing expenditure-side behaviour offset stabilizing revenue-side behaviour, while in Quebec, Ontario and Alberta, stabilizing expenditure changes may have dominated destabilizing revenue changes; in Nova Scotia and Manitoba, the long-run rate of expenditure growth exceeded the rate of revenue growth, suggesting a possible structural deficit problem, while the other provinces appear to have exercised greater financial control; and provincial expenditure policy was affected by the electoral cycle, while revenue policy appears to have been unaffected. It is expected that provincial involvement in cyclical regulation will be limited in the immediate future and that the provinces will take further steps to shore up their finances, following the stresses that were imposed on their budgets by the last recession. Sommaire: Cet article passe en revue la période 1965–1984 et analyse le rôle des budgets provinciaux dans la stabilisation régionale et leur impact sur la situation financière des gouvernements provinciaux. Les auteurs examinent l'hypothèse de l‘“effet pervers” selon lequel la politique budgétaire provinciale accentuerait les revirements cycliques de l’économie locale au lieu de les atténuer. Ils tentent de faire la distinction entre les éléments automatiques et discrétionnaires des budgets provinciaux en calculant les recettes, les dépenses et les soldes budgétaires ajustés en tenant compte de leur aspect cyclique et de l'inflation. Une analyse du solde budgétaire mène aux conclusions suivantes: les budgets provinciaux, et leurs éléments automatiques et discrétionnaires, ont eu en général un effet stabilisateur pendant la période étudiée; cependant, dans la plupart des cas, la politique budgétaire discrétionnaire a eu un effet pervers. Une analyse de régression mène aux constatations suivantes: à Terre-Neuve, au Nouveau-Brunswick, au Manitoba et en Saskatchewan, les politiques de recettes et de dépenses ont eu un effet cyclique neutre pendant la période étudiée; en Nouvelle-Écosse et en Colombie-Britannique, l'effet déstabilisateur des dépenses a annulé l'effet stabilisateur des recettes, tandis qu'au Québec, en Ontario et en Alberta, il semble que les changements stabilisateurs dans les dépenses aient dominé les changements déstabilisateurs dans les recettes; en Nouvelle-Écosse et au Manitoba, le taux de croissance à long terme des dépenses a été supérieur au taux de croissance des recettes, ce qui est peut-être le signe d'un problème de déficit structurel, bien que les autres provinces semblent exercer un plus grand contrôle financier; la politique provinciale de dépenses a subi les contrecoups du cycle électoral alors que la politique de recettes ne semble pas avoir été touchée. On prévoit que l'intervention provinciale dans la règlementation cyclique sera limitée dans un proche avenir et que les provinces prendront de nouvelles mesures pour consolider leurs finances, suite aux contraintes budgétaires que la dernière récession leur a imposée.     

The Changing Nature of Political Debate Consumption: Social Media,Multitasking, and Knowledge Acquisition

This study examines the influence of debate viewing-social media multitasking on campaign knowledge during the 2012 presidential election. Results from three waves of a national cross-sectional survey of U.S. adults conducted during and after the 2012 presidential election suggest that social networking site (SNS) use overall correlates with increased knowledge of campaign issues and facts above and beyond the use of other sources of news media. In addition, watching a debate with or without simultaneous social media engagement is better for knowledge generation than not viewing a debate at all, but the effect of debate viewing is dulled when simultaneously engaging in social media multitasking. The debate viewing-social media multitasking effect is moderated by candidate preference, with differential learning occurring largely for knowledge that is favorable to one’s preferred candidate.     

AFRICOM: a threat or an opportunity for African security?

The establishment of an African military command by the United States reflects the growing focus of the United States on Africa in the US National Security Strategy, which appears to be continuing under new US President Barack Obama. This article deals with several questions. What is the stated US National Security Strategy pertaining to Africa? What national interests does the United States have in Africa? What is the United States officially saying about its objectives in Africa and what has it actually been doing to date? And what are other opinion makers saying about US military involvement in Africa? Finally, it looks at the question of US perceptions of possible rivals in Africa and at potential scenarios for conflict before making a series of conclusions about the threats and opportunities posed by AFRICOM for Africa, and recommendations for a response to AFRICOM on the part of policymakers in South Africa.     

The Morning After: The Effect of the Network Call for Bush

By the weekend following the election of 2000, two possible frames were available to the press covering developments in Florida. In the first, Gore had won the popular vote and the outcome in the electoral college was uncertain. In the second, Bush was ahead in the vote in the state that would determine the results in the electoral college and, as such, the presumed victor until Gore proved otherwise. Elite discourse as revealed in Sunday morning talk shows eventually settled into the second frame, but not until the certification of the Florida vote by Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris. Elite discourse was not, however, beneficial to Bush in the early weeks of the protest phase of the election.     

Transnational Organized Crime: A European Perspective

One of the most controversial issues the United States has to deal with since the beginning of the 2003 war in Iraq is the Mujahedeen a-Khalk (MEK). For more than two decades the organization had been the major armed opposition to the Iranian government and, at the same time, had been a close ally to Saddam Hussein's regime. This study examines the history of the MEK, the debate within the Bush administration on what to do with the MEK fighters, and the solutions proposed by the Iraqi Governing Council, the Iranian government, and the United States. The analysis suggests that operationally and ideologically the MEK has reached a dead end.‐